As competition intensifies, scale and integration become the key to development. With the continuous opening of the market, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) refining and chemical industry has more and more competitive subjects, and refineries are facing more fierce competition. In the era of large-scale refining, large-scale is the primary condition for survival, and the processing capacity of tens of millions of tons has gradually become a "ticket". On this basis, industrial chain integration will provide conditions for the differentiated development of refineries and affect the upper limit of transformation and upgrading.
The state-owned refinery has a deep foundation and its main position is still stable. The state-owned refineries represented by Sinopec and PetroChina are the leading force in the industry and are accelerating the adjustment and upgrading to consolidate their leading position. State owned refineries maintain a leading edge in the product oil track, and have a solid foundation in the production, study and research of high-end polyolefins. However, the lack of the scale of aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain is restricting its "oil reduction and chemical enhancement", and light hydrocarbon cracking is expected to become a new choice of hydrogen source. On the whole, state-owned refineries will show differentiated development. Super large integrated refineries are the main force in the market, and the development space of fuel refineries is limited.
Emerging private refineries build a moat with cost advantages and industrial chain depth. The scale of the device and the advanced technology have laid the leading foundation, and also give more flexible material selectivity and more powerful processing capability. Emerging private refining can not only reduce the cost of raw materials by processing low-cost heavy crude oil, but also open up the whole aromatic industry chain and have strong anti cyclical risk ability. Relying on abundant raw material resources and abundant operating cash flow, emerging private refining has become an expandable platform enterprise to further layout the field of new materials.
Traditional local refineries seek a new way out through reduction integration. Traditional refineries have problems such as scattered layout, small monomer scale and low degree of integration. Their overall competitiveness is weak, and comprehensive integration is imperative. Under the guidance of the government, small and medium-sized local refineries have successively started the transformation of chemical projects, focusing on fine chemicals and new materials, but there are also problems with high risk of project homogenization. At the same time, the intertwined interests are also affecting the willingness of refinery integration, and there are still variables in the overall integration. Therefore, the prospect of transformation and upgrading of traditional land refining remains to be seen.
The diversified sources of olefin raw materials make the competition more complex and changeable. The production methods of olefins include oil production, coal production and light hydrocarbon cracking. China's development of coal to olefins has resource endowment, but its development is restricted by funds and policies and is difficult to become the mainstream. Light alkane cracking process has obvious advantages, and the stability of raw materials has become the key to development. The existing units of the refinery can complement the light hydrocarbon cracking, which has more advantages than the new players who lack the support of the downstream market.
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