Core conclusion: ① at present, A-share listed companies are only forced to disclose the performance forecast of the first quarterly report under specific circumstances. After considering the forecast and express report, the number of all A-share first quarterly report forecasts / express reports accounts for 11% and the profit accounts for 10%. ② Taking the disclosed forecast / express companies as the sample, the performance growth rate of all A-Shares has increased. The cumulative net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is 92% year-on-year, while the biennial annualized profit in 21q4 is 63% year-on-year. ③ From the perspective of subdivided industries, the growth rate of 22q1 performance of resource products (coal and nonferrous metals) is still high, and the profits of new infrastructure (digital economy and low-carbon economy) are growing rapidly.
As there are no rigid disclosure requirements for the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the disclosure rate of the current quarterly report forecast is not high. As of April 14, based on the number of disclosures, the number of companies that disclosed the performance forecast and express of the first quarterly report in 22q1 accounted for only 11% of all a shares, including 11% on the main board (including the original small and medium-sized board), 11% on the gem and 10% on the science and innovation board; Taking the total cumulative net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q3 as the denominator, at present, 510 companies that have disclosed the performance forecast / express of the first quarterly report account for 10% of the cumulative net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q3, including only 10% of the profits disclosed on the main board, 19% on the gem and 9% on the science and innovation board.
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-Shares 22q1 that have disclosed the performance forecast / Express is 92% (84% in 21q4), which is also 92% (84% in 21q4) after excluding finance. Since the performance growth of 21q4 may be affected by the 20-year low base, while 22q1 is not affected, we calculated the compound growth rate of 21q4 separately. The results show that the two-year compound growth rate of 21q4 attributable net profit of all A-Shares in the same sample is 63%, and the two-year compound growth rate after excluding finance is also 63%, which is lower than that of 22q1.
The power equipment industry drives the rapid growth of the performance of the manufacturing sector; In the TMT sector, the performance of electronics and communications increased significantly, while the performance of computers decreased significantly, and the performance growth of the consumer sector increased significantly. Among them, the growth rate of medicine and biology was the fastest, food and beverage remained stable, and Commerce and retail increased significantly; Although the performance growth of energy and materials sector has slowed down, it is still at a high level; The overall profit of the financial sector declined, but the performance of the real estate industry was better.
In the context of steady growth, traditional infrastructure has been valued by investors, including construction, building materials and machinery. The disclosure rate of the first quarterly report of traditional infrastructure is still very low. From the current data, the performance has not improved, but the performance of the building decoration industry is better; China’s pig industry is still in a difficult position due to the reversal of the epidemic situation in the first quarter, and the consumption chain of pig industry is still affected by the downturn in the first quarter, including the service chain; The digital economy and low-carbon economy sectors continue to maintain high growth. The digital economy industry chain includes 5g, semiconductor, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other fields, of which semiconductor performance growth is the most prominent; In the context of carbon neutrality, the industrial chain of low-carbon economy continues, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic wind power and new power grid. The performance growth rate of photovoltaic wind power has increased significantly.
The performance growth of Semiconductor Leaders Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) 22q1 in TMT sector maintained strong growth, and the leading consumer electronics leader Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) also increased slightly; The leading performance of resource products in the energy and materials sector increased significantly; In the manufacturing sector, the performance of new energy related companies is generally good, and the performance growth of 22q1, the leader of photovoltaic industry chain and new energy vehicle industry chain, is fast; Consumption sector Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) performance growth, pharmaceutical company performance differentiation.
Risk warning: the performance forecast / express data are unaudited, which may be quite different from the value of the first quarterly report disclosed in the future.
