Core view
International crude oil prices rose again this week after a large decline in the early stage, mainly due to: first, the slow progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations, the escalation of the war situation in eastern Ukraine and the escalation of the geopolitical crisis. The IEA predicts that Russia’s daily oil supply will be reduced by 3 million barrels from April; Second, although the US crude oil inventory has increased due to the release of strategic reserves, the gasoline and distillate inventory has decreased, indicating that the demand continues to improve. We are still optimistic that the international oil price will remain at the current high level. Recently, due to the factors of rising energy costs, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the rise of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the price of overseas chemical fertilizer has increased significantly. Due to the strong resource attribute of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer, and Russia’s 10% and 20% share of the global market respectively, it is difficult for new production capacity to replace the corresponding market share in a short time. Therefore, we are optimistic about the rise of global potash fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer prices, [ Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ] and [ Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ] are highly recommended. Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of trichlorosilane continues to rise sharply, with the price of industrial grade products rising to 210 Yunnan Yuntou Ecology And Environment Technology Co.Ltd(002200) 0 yuan / ton and the price of photovoltaic grade products rising to 250 Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co.Ltd(002700) 0 yuan / ton. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the price of trichlorosilane has risen to 25500 yuan / ton. The production of new polysilicon units and the daily chlorine supplement of existing capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane. This year, the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is limited. We are optimistic that the polysilicon capacity will continue to be invested in the future and put down the high prospect of trichlorosilane industry. We recommend [ Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) ]. Benefiting from the obvious pull of photovoltaic glass demand and the contraction of supply side capacity, the prosperity of soda ash industry continues to improve, and the product price is expected to continue to rise. Focus on the leading natural alkali process [ Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ] with strong cost advantage and the subject of combined soda process [double ring technology]. At the same time, we suggest that we focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) \ (sucralose) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are diammonium phosphate (4.32%), PX (3.80%), viscose staple fiber (2.92%), caprolactam (2.54%), propylene (MTO method) (2.50%); DMF (- 8.96%), MTBE (- 5.25%), dimethyl carbonate (- 4.23%), methanol (- 3.61%) and polymerized MDI (- 3.61%) were the top five drop in chemical product prices this week.
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in price difference of chemical products this week are propylene (MTO method) (272.76%), propylene (naphtha method) (55.34%), caprolactam (35.25%), diammonium phosphate (32.53%) and R134a (30.44%); The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were butyl acrylate (- 247.05%), methanol (- 34.45%), ethylene oxide (- 32.94%), nylon 7 chips (- 31.14%) and nylon 6 chips (- 31.14%).
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of the overseas epidemic has led to a lower than expected recovery.
