Current investment tips:
Crude oil prices rose year-on-year and month on month, and refined oil prices rose: Brent crude oil average prices in January, February and March 2022 were $85.6, 94.1 and 112.5 / barrel respectively, with a fluctuation range of $79-128; The average price of 2022q1 was US $97.4/barrel, up 26.5% month on month and 59.4% year-on-year to close at US $107.9/barrel. In 2022q1, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased 6 times and decreased 0 times, and the prices of gasoline and diesel increased 1985 yuan / ton and 1915 yuan / ton.
The price difference of acrylic acid and ester, butadiene naphtha, PX naphtha and propane dehydrogenation expanded month on month: in 2022q1, the price difference of Singapore catalytic cracking was US $13.5/barrel, and the price difference of oil refining increased by US $0.2/barrel month on month. The average price difference of naphtha cracked ethylene in 2022q1 is US $157 / T, narrowed by US $109 / T month on month; The average price difference of propane dehydrogenation is 116 US dollars / ton, with a month on month increase of 56 US dollars / ton; The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene is 8235 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1207 yuan / ton; The price difference of butyl acrylate was 7494 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 194 yuan / ton; The average price difference between butadiene and naphtha was 147 US dollars / ton, an increase of 150 US dollars / ton month on month. In terms of polyester industry chain, the difference between PX and naphtha oil price in 2022q1 was US $211 / ton, expanding by US $58 / ton month on month; Pta-0.655 PX price difference is 450 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 248 yuan / ton; Poy-0.86 pta-0.34 MEG average price difference is 1260 yuan / ton, narrowing 359 yuan / ton month on month.
The performance forecast of key companies in the industry in the first quarter of 2022 is as follows: affected by geopolitics, oil and gas prices continued to rise in the first quarter, and the price difference of downstream refining and chemical industry narrowed: Petrochina Company Limited(601857) – the rise of oil price releases the performance elasticity, and natural gas sales is expected to become a new growth point, with an estimated net profit of 30.5 billion (YoY + 10%, QoQ + 79%) China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) – the net profit is expected to be 300 million (YoY + 66%, up 1.4 billion month on month) due to the joint advantages of China’s oil and gas reserve and production increase policy and the continuous rise of oil prices Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) – China’s oil service industry has warmed up, capital expenditure has improved, performance has increased, and the estimated net profit is 180 million (YoY + 50%, month on month growth of 360 million). Refining and chemical integration enterprises benefited from the rise in oil prices, but the boom fell with the narrowing of the price difference of the polyester industrial chain, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) – Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was gradually put into operation, and the profit was stable and good, but the price difference of the polyester industrial chain narrowed, and the estimated net profit was 4.1 billion (YoY + 56%, QoQ + 50%) Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) – benefiting from the improvement of oil refining boom, but the price difference of polyester filament is narrowed, and the estimated net profit is 1.3 billion (YoY + 7%, QoQ – 1%) Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) – the profit of refining and chemical integration is stable, and the estimated net profit is 2.5 billion (YoY – 39%, QoQ – 11%) Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) – the price difference of polyester industry chain is narrowed, but the acquisition of sierbang injects vitality into the growth of the company, and the estimated net profit is 1.9 billion (YoY + 216%, QoQ – 39%) Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) – Zhejiang Petrochemical has a stable profit, with an estimated net profit of 2.2 billion (YoY + 28%, QoQ + 89%). In terms of petrochemical enterprises, the prosperity of satellite Chemistry – acrylic acid and ester continues, and the profit advantage of ethane cracking is prominent under the background of high oil price, with an estimated net profit of 1.7 billion (YoY + 122%, QoQ – 3%) Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) – fully benefiting from the upswing of the boom of natural gas, coal, methanol and other resource products, the production and sales volume increased month on month, and the net profit was 2.21 billion (YoY + 176%, QoQ – 1%) Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) – the company benefited from the upward trend of coke boom, with a net profit of 1.75 billion (YoY + 1%, QoQ + 0%).
Investment analysis opinions: 1) from the perspective of competitiveness, profit stability and capacity investment integration, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . 2) For the cost advantage of ethane to ethylene and the benefit of propylene industry chain, Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . 3) The rebound of oil price, the cost advantage and long-term growth of coal chemical industry are recommended Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . 4) The flexibility of the sharp rise in oil prices. At the same time, from the perspective of reducing capital expenditure in overseas upstream and increasing energy security in China, it is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) , etc.
Risk tip: geopolitical impact; Price fluctuation of petroleum and chemicals; Economic downside risk; Global epidemic impact.
