What is the rotation of private placement of A-Shares in March? The latest data came out: a sharp reduction in positions.
private placement position reduction exceeding 10%
average position less than 60%
According to the statistics of China Resources trust, as of the end of March, the average stock position of sunshine private equity bull index (crefi) component funds was 58.93%, down 10.18% from the end of last month.
The data show that when the position of the last private placement was less than 60%, it was just before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020.
Specifically, the proportion of constituent funds with more than 50% stock positions was 67.52%, down 11.58% from the end of February. The proportion of positions of 0-40% reached 26.5%.
According to the reporter, indeed, many private placement reduced their positions in the first quarter. The most concerned by the market is undoubtedly Dongfang harbor. After falling into short position rumors, Dan bin, chairman of the company, revealed that Dongfang harbor’s position is relatively low, about 10%. He said that after 08 years of Baijiu crisis, the selling principle added a “systemic risk” to sell away temporarily. This year’s Ukraine crisis and subsequent derivatives risks are the focus. Of course, it also includes some other thoughts. Dan Bin’s company, Dongfang harbor investment management company, said that after predicting the market risk at the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, they generally took relatively strict risk control measures, put risk control first and carefully deal with the sharp fluctuations of the market.
Chengze assets said in its monthly report in recent months that it is cautious about the market and that portfolio management is mainly to avoid risks, which is still the case at present. However, with the passage of time and the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report of listed companies, they said that they had accumulated and screened a number of backup targets in the next stage. Once the market stabilizes, their current strategy is to “wait for the opportunity”.
Of course, many private placement kept high positions in the first quarter.
Qinghequan capital said in the just concluded second quarter strategy meeting that the overall portfolio maintains medium and high positions, because they believe that it is wrong to reduce the position if there are too many positions at the bottom of the market; However, due to the occurrence of sudden and strong impact events, they have made corresponding fine-tuning to the combination. However, it also admitted that in the first quarter portfolio framework, some short-term impact events were not fully considered, which is worthy of reflection.
materials, biopharmaceuticals, semiconductor warehouse maximum
software, capital goods, technology and hardware can be reduced at most
From the perspective of industry allocation, at the end of March 2022, the top three heavy warehouse industry sectors of private placement were “material II”, “food, beverage and tobacco” and “capital goods”, with positions of 12.54%, 12.01% and 10.39% respectively.
From the perspective of position growth, at the end of March, the three industries with the largest growth were “Materials II”, “pharmaceutical, biotechnology and life sciences” and “semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment”, increasing their holdings by 0.56%, 0.47% and 0.42% to 12.54%, 7.75% and 5.93% respectively. The three industries with the largest decline were “software and services”, “capital goods” and “technical hardware and equipment”, reducing their holdings by 2.33%, 2.32% and 1.55% to 2.28% respectively 10.39% and 5.95%.
private placement: the current market is at the bottom of history
Looking forward to the second quarter, Wu Junfeng, investment director of qinghequan capital believes that from the perspective of ERP, the current market is at the bottom of history. At this time, I don’t agree that there are huge risks in the market. The core issue of how the market will go in the future lies in whether the main contradiction concerned by the market (epidemic situation and steady growth) has been reversed.
First of all, when the epidemic continues to disturb production, consumption and social life and does not return to normal, the market does not have the basic line of medium and long-term logic, and the market performance is messy. However, as long as the marginal impact of the epidemic changes, the market will have a very positive response. We are also observing and waiting, hoping to get a more clear direction of epidemic treatment.
Secondly, where is the key to steady growth? From the social finance data just released in March, it has improved, or even exceeded expectations. The existing structural problems are mainly the good performance of enterprises and the poor performance of residents. The medium and long-term credit data of the enterprise side is better than expected; The residential side is mainly the performance of real estate, which can also be attributed to the first contradiction, because steady growth cannot be achieved without personnel mobility, consumption scene and consumption will. From the perspective of steady growth, we need to wait for the Politburo meeting at the end of the month to make a basic judgment and set the tone. At that time, we may see more clearly which direction is stable and which direction to invest in; Epidemic prevention policies also need to be closely followed, including how to restore the supply chain in some representative cities.
\u3000\u3000 “Generally speaking, there were indeed many negative impacts in the first quarter that exceeded expectations. In our past strategic framework, we did not give too much consideration to the impact of such negative impacts. Later, we will consider more comprehensively in our investment and our response will be more calm; as far as the market is concerned, we can see that it is currently in the bottom area through strict calculation. When there is an obvious trend in the two core contradictions of epidemic policy and steady growth , the main line of the market will be clearer, and it is expected to get out of the downturn. At that time, our investment will be more leisurely. ” He said.
yuanlesheng believed in the monthly report in March that “steady growth” is still in the process of continuous development. At present, although the strength of monetary and fiscal policies is not strong enough and the real estate industry is still undergoing substantial adjustment, the government work report set the economic growth target of 2022 at about 5.5%. The recent executive meeting of the State Council reiterated this target and emphasized the compaction responsibilities and detailed measures. I believe that the government has the ability and willingness to achieve the goal of “stable growth”. According to its calculation, if we want to achieve the growth target of 5.5%, we need the support of these aspects: real estate investment maintains a small single digit growth, that is, new construction cannot have a significant negative growth; Export growth needs to maintain a good boom, and China’s global market share will not decline significantly. Now it seems that the government has finally selected the goal that needs to be achieved with efforts, which shows that the follow-up may support economic growth from multiple dimensions such as monetary policy and fiscal policy. In addition, without extreme systemic risks, the market has limited downward space after several rounds of adjustment. At present, the valuation and cost performance advantages of many growth stocks have been revealed.
The current epidemic does add another layer of uncertainty to “steady growth”, but yuan Lesheng believes that the fog is about to dissipate. For a long time, it is believed that the market still follows the fundamentals of enterprises, and fast-growing companies can continuously create value. The market is mainly affected by some exogenous variables, which cannot be sustained for a long time.
They will continue to actively look for opportunities in fluctuations and lay out high-quality growth stocks with fully released valuation risks and sufficient cost performance.
Wukong investment believes that although there are still constraints, the “policy bottom” has been explored and the “market bottom” can be expected. Specifically, the underlying selection logic of Wukong golden triangle is based on prosperity and balance. Prosperity is the foundation they have been anchoring. They not only pay attention to the short-term prosperity, but also pay attention to the medium and long-term prosperity. Although the evaluation of prosperity also includes game elements, the support of performance and medium-term growth space are the focus of their decision-making; At the same time, they will also properly balance the combination construction, avoid excessive concentration of the industry and increase flexibility. At the current stage, they are still optimistic about the investment opportunities in booming industries. At the same time, they also pay attention to the performance of relevant opportunities in the stable growth cycle, and the portfolio structure is properly balanced.
Steady growth has been continuously recognized on the policy side since Q4 last year, but subject to the internal and external environment, the realization of steady growth is under pressure. From their historical analysis, stable growth related industries will have phased performance in the overweight stage of stable growth, and the constraints of cashing degree will bring more fluctuations. They continue to look for the structure of medium and long-term prosperity logic in this direction, and appropriately increase the weight of short-term marginal change range, valuation level and other dimensions.
Cao Xiongfei, CEO of Chengze assets also believes that the policy bottom of A-Shares has appeared, the emotional bottom is basically confirmed, and the bottom of fundamentals needs to wait. At present, in the medium and long term, many high-quality companies have entered the value range or even significantly underestimated. The difficulty lies in how to control the portfolio pullback caused by short-term market fluctuations. He also reminded that attention should be paid to the impact of anti globalization. This is something that our generation has never experienced and does not know how to affect the economy and life in the future. Anti globalization is bound to seriously affect our investment research paradigm. On this point, he believes that the vast majority of market participants did not seriously think about it and did not reflect it in the stock price and valuation.
