Recently, northbound funds continued to buy A-share banking sector. According to the data, from March 16 to April 13, northbound funds bought a net 8.614 billion yuan of bank shares.
In this context, the performance of the banking sector in the same period was much stronger than the market. Industry insiders believe that with the continuous development of credit easing and stable growth policies, the banking sector with sound fundamentals has more room for valuation repair. In addition, it is about to enter the intensive release period of the first quarterly report, and the performance is expected to continue to catalyze the market of bank stocks.
northbound capital buying
According to the data, from March 16 to April 14, the Shenwan bank index rose by 12.27%, ranking third among the 31 Shenwan industry indexes. 21 A-share listed banks rose by more than 10% over the same period, with Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) (26.17%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (21.72%) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (20.93%) ranking among the top three.
Since the middle and late March, northbound funds have net bought the banking sector for several weeks. Specifically, from March 16 to March 18, northbound funds bought a net 1.536 billion yuan; From March 21 to March 25, the net purchase was 397 million yuan; From March 28 to April 1, the net purchase was 2.64 billion yuan; From April 6 to April 8, the net purchase was 2.988 billion yuan. This week, northbound funds continued to increase their positions in the banking sector, with a total net purchase of 1.053 billion yuan from April 11 to April 13. From March 16 to April 13, the cumulative scale of net purchase of banking sector by northbound funds was RMB 8.614 billion.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that with the easing of market sentiment, foreign capital began a new round of increase in A-share banking sector. Other market participants believe that the banking sector has become a "safe haven" for defensive funds.
The reason why the banking sector has become a "safe haven" is closely related to its excellent fundamentals. Up to now, 25 A-share listed banks have disclosed the annual report of 2021. The net profit of 25 banks increased year-on-year last year, of which the net profit of 10 banks increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
first quarterly report will be released intensively
At present, for investors, the first quarterly report has more reference value. On April 16, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) will take the lead in disclosing the first quarterly report of 2022. From April 22 to the end of April, the first quarterly reports of other listed banks will be fully disclosed, and the disclosure time is mainly concentrated at the end of April. On April 29 and April 30, 11 and 18 banks will disclose their first quarterly reports respectively.
Can the performance of listed banks in the first quarter of this year continue the excellent performance of 2021 annual report? Yu Jinxin, an analyst at Minsheng securities, believes that from the social finance data in March, the loan growth picked up, which may indicate that the newspaper performance of the bank was relatively stable in the first quarter. According to the data, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year; In March, the increment of social financing scale was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) bank team estimates that the revenue of listed banks in the first quarter is expected to increase by 4.7% year-on-year. Among them, both big banks and rural commercial banks are supported by net interest income; Both joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks are affected by the high interest margin base. As for the net profit attributable to the parent company, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) analyst Zheng Qingming predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company of listed banks increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.
valuation is expected to continue to repair
Although the recent trend of bank stocks is bright, the overall valuation level of the sector is still at a historical low. As of the closing on April 14, the net stock market rate of Shenwan bank index is 0.62 times.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that broad credit under the demand of steady growth is the main investment logic of the bank. With the improvement of broad credit in the second quarter, bank stocks are expected to continue to benefit.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that he was still very optimistic about the relative and absolute returns that banks could obtain. In its view, the loose monetary environment has increasingly become a probability event. On the one hand, monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction can improve the debt cost of banks; On the other hand, when the current investment main line is not clear, part of the liquidity released by monetary regulation may flow into the banking sector, bringing significant relative returns. "Superimposed on the valuation level of the current historical bottom of the banking sector and the catalysis of the good performance of many banks, we are optimistic about the absolute income of the banking sector."
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) analyst Lin Jinlu believes that the bank's annual performance in 2022 has strong stability and certainty, which is mainly supported by three aspects: first, the wide credit policy promotes the accelerated expansion of the bank's statement, and the net interest income is expected to maintain a rapid growth; Second, the accelerated transformation of wealth management business will contribute to new profit growth points; Third, at present, the burden of asset quality is light, and the provision safety cushion is thick, which will support profits.
