Since this year, the investment banking business of securities companies has been “intertwined with cold and hot”. The scale of A-share IPO exceeded 190 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 85%, and the income from underwriting and recommendation exceeded 8.5 billion yuan. The primary market has brought considerable income to securities companies and investment banks. However, the increase in the amount of “abandonment” and the breaking rate of new shares makes the underwriting and follow-up investment of securities companies face “double pressure”, and there is the possibility of project loss.
ipo scale increased by more than 85% year-on-year
underwriting and recommendation revenue continued to increase
In recent years, the reform of registration system and other measures have brought many structural opportunities to securities companies.
According to the data, since this year, securities companies have served 105 enterprises to complete A-share IPO (all according to the issuance date, the same below), with a total fund-raising of 192539 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.64%. The cumulative passing rate of A-share IPO projects was 84.62%, the approval rate of issuance was slightly lower than that of last year, and the IPO maintained normal issuance
With the reform of the registration system, securities companies continue to increase the coverage of IPO customers such as the science and innovation board and the gem. Since this year, “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” enterprises have been the main force of A-share IPOs. 36 “hard technology” enterprises have completed IPOs on the science and innovation board, raising an amount of 78.295 billion yuan; 48 growth innovation and entrepreneurship enterprises completed their IPOs on the gem, raising an amount of 69.322 billion yuan. The number of IPOs on the two boards accounted for 80% of the total number of IPOs in the year, and the financing amount accounted for 76.67% of the total amount of IPO funds raised in the year.
With the continuous improvement of the fund-raising scale of A-share IPO, the investment bank income of securities companies has also risen. Since this year, securities companies have received a total underwriting and recommendation income of 8.583 billion yuan (the expenses of four companies have not been announced), an increase of about 28% year-on-year. From the perspective of the income structure of underwriting and recommendation, the income of securities companies in the science and innovation board and the gem is the highest, with 3.746 billion yuan and 3.946 billion yuan respectively. The cumulative income of the two boards accounts for 89.62% of the total income.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily: “Under the background of Solidly Promoting the reform of the comprehensive registration system and smoothly landing, the issuance efficiency of the company has been significantly improved, and the overall quality of listed companies is also steadily improved. It is expected that the IPO efficiency will continue to improve in the expectation of the comprehensive promotion of the registration system. However, with the continuous adjustment of the secondary market, the issuance price of the primary market will be affected to a certain extent, so it is expected that the enthusiasm for short-term IPO may cool down temporarily.”
“Although the short-term adjustment of the secondary market has cooled the primary market, from the perspective of the national strategic development direction, the high-end manufacturing, pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other industries with real growth and hard technology are still expected to receive more financial support. From the perspective of the whole year, it is expected that under the background of the promotion of the comprehensive registration system, the number and scale of IPOs are expected to reach a record high.” Chen Mengjie added to reporters.
Meanwhile, the IPO reserve projects of securities companies are expected to continue to thicken the income of investment banks. Data show that at present, there are about 533 A-share companies in the IPO queue (excluding terminated / suspended projects), and the cumulative fund-raising amount is expected to be about 594.8 billion yuan. At the same time, according to the situation of IPO audit and application enterprises, there are 2251 enterprises accepted for counseling, registration and filing.
large amount of abandoned purchase and increase of breaking rate
securities companies are under double pressure
Although the IPO underwriting and recommendation income of securities companies continues to increase, under the current “investment bank + investment” mode, the frequent breaking of new shares puts securities companies under double pressure.
the first pressure comes from “abandoning purchase” as of press time, 97 new shares have been listed this year, and the balance underwriting amount of new shares “abandoned” by online investors by securities companies has reached 2.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148047%. Now, the frequent breaking of new shares has doubled the pressure on the lead underwriter. According to the calculation of the reporter of Securities Daily, since this year, a total of 25 new shares have broken on the first day. If the lead underwriter adopts the first day selling strategy, the cumulative floating loss will reach 164 million yuan, of which four new shares make the first day floating loss of the lead underwriter exceed 10 million yuan.
Data show that since 2012, there have been 31 new shares with an underwriting ratio of more than 1%, of which 22 have been issued in 2022. Recently, there have been new shares with an underwriting proportion of more than 10%. The cumulative amount of underwriting and follow-up investment by securities companies has greatly exceeded the underwriting recommendation fee.
Chen Mengjie told reporters: “Since the end of last year, the market has entered a continuous adjustment, and the breaking of new shares is common. The concept of” steady profit without loss “has been broken, and the abandonment rate has also increased. From the abandonment situation, it is mainly concentrated in the track stocks with large increase in the early stage. Last year, the market gave these industries a higher premium. After the market entered the adjustment, investors are worried about the sustainability of the subsequent profit growth of these high-priced stocks and the development prospect of the industry Under the trend of rising purchase rate, the investment bank income of securities companies will be under pressure in the short term, but to a certain extent, it will force the pricing of institutions to become more reasonable, and the P / E ratio of subsequent issuance will be more objective and rational. “
the second pressure comes from follow-up previously, the science and Innovation Board led the “investment bank + investment” to improve the yield, and more and more securities companies began to layout. According to the data, since the opening of the sci-tech innovation board, the number of Sci-tech Innovation Board companies served by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has reached 107, and the number of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , Huatai joint services has exceeded 50.
However, as an institutional innovation of the sci-tech innovation board, securities companies need to use their own funds for follow-up investment, which not only faces the risk of missing business opportunities due to their lack of capital, but also faces the risk of investment failure due to the market environment or the issuer’s performance falling short of expectations.
Chief economist of Chuancai securities Chen Li, director of the Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily: “This year, one quarter of the new shares listed on the board are broken, and the breaking rate of the science and innovation board is as high as 50%. The listed companies on the science and innovation board have mandatory follow-up requirements for the recommendation institutions, and the breaking of new shares makes the securities companies suffer losses for the follow-up investment part. at the same time, the amount of new shares abandoned is large, and the securities companies are also facing the financial pressure brought by underwriting. Although the listing of projects will bring considerable underwriting and recommendation costs to the securities companies, the decline of stock prices brings floating risks to the follow-up investment and underwriting Loss, there is the possibility of project loss. “
Although the lock-in period of follow-up investment shares is 24 months, compared with the previous period, the risk of the exit of the follow-up investment project of the securities firm Kechuang board also increases. According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of Securities Daily, among the science and Innovation Board companies that have completed A-share IPO this year, the cumulative allocation of alternative investment subsidiaries of securities companies with investment is about 2.148 billion yuan, and the cumulative underwriting and recommendation fee is about 3.746 billion yuan, accounting for 57.34% of the underwriting and recommendation fee.
\u3000\u3000 “In terms of the listing of new shares this year, the over valuation of new shares is an important reason for the break. According to statistics, the median dynamic P / E ratio of new shares listed this year is 44 times, much higher than the level of 21 times last year. The over valuation has greatly reduced the income expectation of new purchase and subscription. for securities companies, the ability of professional, objective and prudent pricing and bargaining in advance will become more and more important. Especially in the current market environment, it is important for enterprises The valuation work should not only consider the valuation level of similar enterprises in history, but also give a reasonable price in combination with the current investor sentiment “Chen Li explained to reporters.
