Since this week, the soaring of coal sector index has become the most eye-catching scenery in the market.
Yesterday, the Dongcai coal industry index rose 5.58% in a single day, easily refreshing the new high of the sector index since 2022. On the news side, the overseas conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment, limiting the export of Russian coal and exacerbating the tension of the global supply chain.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that four major factors have driven the coal sector to rise sharply, first, the coal price has remained high since the beginning of the year, the market’s profit expectation for the sector has been rising continuously, and the valuation level is at a low level, which is the basis for the continuous rise of the sector second, the expectations of lowering the reserve requirement, steady growth of infrastructure and relaxation of real estate policies will help to improve the demand expectation and enhance the valuation of the sector third, overseas oil prices are the main driver of recent fluctuations in the sector . Yesterday, the prices of overseas crude oil and SINOCHEM futures rose sharply after the shock, driving the rise of coal stocks in addition, since the beginning of the year, the coal sector has led the increase. At present, there is momentum effect, which continues to attract capital attention .
China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) showed a trend of net outflow of main funds.
Thanks to the booming supply and demand of the coal industry and the rise of coal prices, most listed coal enterprises achieved good results in 2021, and continued to increase in advance in the first quarter of this year. At present, it is the first quarterly report window. As of April 14, 12 enterprises in the coal sector have disclosed the first quarterly report forecast, and their performance has achieved positive growth year-on-year. The stocks with the highest growth rate are Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) and Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . When disclosing the reasons for performance growth, coal stocks all mentioned the market opportunity of high coal prices.
The coal industry is a typical cyclical industry, and the period required for capacity entry and exit is long. Under the condition that the main line of “double carbon” remains unchanged, the willingness of the industry to build new capacity is weakened and the supply elasticity is reduced. At the same time, some mines with incomplete procedures and exhausted resources are still facing withdrawal in 2022, bringing supply constraints. Superimposed on the situation of overseas energy supply, the agency expects that the high price of imported coal will not decrease and the competitive advantage will be weakened.
Zuo Qianming of Cinda Securities said that at present, it is in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the allocation of coal sector at this stage is at the right time he stressed that the fundamental reason for the current rise in global energy prices is the combination of insufficient production capacity and over issuance of global currencies for a long time, which is a round of energy inflation dominated by the supply cycle. The outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not change its fundamental logic. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector
It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
