Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
AVIC Securities: the epidemic gave birth to the "house economy" and the "out of the circle" of prefabricated vegetables
According to the definition of prefabricated dishes, it refers to the finished or semi-finished products made of agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products as raw materials, supplemented with various auxiliary materials and pre processed (such as cutting, mixing, pickling, rolling, forming and seasoning). Since the outbreak, Jingdong seven fresh foods, meituan buying vegetables, hungry, box horse, daily excellent fresh foods and dingdong buying vegetables have successively entered the Bureau's Prefabricated vegetable market. For b-end catering enterprises, affected by the epidemic, the operation is difficult, and the production cost of prefabricated dishes is low and the profit margin is higher; For C-end consumers, the epidemic has given birth to the "house economy". Prefabricated dishes have the advantages of convenience, quickness and diverse tastes. They have become a new favorite on more and more family tables, and their sales have increased greatly.
In terms of investment suggestions, with the improvement of consumers' awareness of prefabricated dishes and the cultivation of consumption habits, it is expected to further catalyze the rapid development of the industry. Ncbd data show that the scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable market will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2021 and is expected to exceed 830 billion yuan by 2025, of which the scale in the C-end market will account for nearly 30%. According to the five year (20212025) work plan of China Cuisine Association, at present, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes in China is only 10% - 15%, which is expected to increase to 15% - 20% in 2030. In Japan, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes has reached more than 60%. In China's catering market, which is similar to Japanese food culture to a certain extent, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes still has great room for improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to the upstream and downstream industrial chain targets: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) .
Dongguan Securities: the joint efforts of BC end will drive the increase of demand for prefabricated dishes in China. It is expected that there will be broad development space in the future
China's Prefabricated vegetable market is still in the initial stage of development, and the industry is developing rapidly. But at the same time, due to the low entry threshold of the industry, the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the market and the small number of large-scale enterprises, there has not been a large-scale leading enterprise leading the market, and the industry is still a blue ocean. From the perspective of demand structure, the prefabricated vegetable industry is dominated by catering and supplemented by retail. For catering customers, prefabricated dishes can improve the delivery speed, reduce the back kitchen area and enrich the categories; For retail customers, prefabricated dishes can make a dish conveniently and quickly, which can save time and ensure the health of diet.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the joint efforts of BC end will drive the increase of demand for prefabricated dishes in China, and the market is expected to have a relatively broad development space in the future. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on the fragrance of taste, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Longda food, Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , etc.
Huaxin Securities: the prefabricated vegetable industry is in the blue ocean stage! BC terminal ushers in development opportunities and broad development space
Prefabricated vegetables originated in the United States and entered an accelerated period after the epidemic. Prefabricated dishes are prepared with agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products as raw materials, with various auxiliary materials or food additives, which can be directly cooked or eaten after being processed by cutting, stirring, pickling, rolling, forming, seasoning and other processes. They are characterized by convenience and efficiency. In the 1960s, prefabricated dishes originated in the United States; In the 1980s, the development of prefabricated dishes gradually matured; In the 1990s, prefabricated vegetables were introduced into China, and Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) and other deep-processing semi-finished vegetable enterprises were established one after another. Around 2010, the b-end of prefabricated vegetables entered the high-volume period; After the outbreak in 2020, the demand for C-end increased rapidly, and prefabricated vegetable enterprises have arranged the C-end market one after another. According to the processing depth and edible convenience of raw materials, prefabricated dishes can be divided into instant food, instant hot food, instant cooked food and instant matching food.
There are many industry participants, and there is no obvious leader yet. The prefabricated vegetable industry includes five major participants, each with advantages in channel, product and supply chain: 1) raw material supply enterprises: strong supply chain ability and cost advantage. Representative enterprises such as Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Longda food, etc; 2) Prefabricated vegetable production enterprise: born in prefabricated vegetable production, with professionalism. Representative enterprises, such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhenwei plum garden, xinliangji, haodeli, etc; 3) Quick frozen food enterprises: have the advantages of cold chain processing and transportation, and have a high degree of production standardization. Representative enterprises such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc; 4) Chain catering enterprises: self built central kitchen to realize the standardized production of prefabricated dishes. Representative enterprises such as Haidilao, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , northwest Jia Guolong, etc; 5) Retailers: Prefabricated dishes have become a new growth point with strong promotion ability. Representative enterprises such as Ding Dong to buy vegetables, box horse fresh, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , daily excellent fresh, etc.
At present, the prefabricated vegetable industry is in the blue ocean stage, and the BC end has ushered in development opportunities and broad development space. We have rated the industry as "overweight". It is suggested to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) and Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) .
Minsheng Securities: Chinese prefabricated dishes enter the fast lane of development, focusing on three types of investment opportunities
The essence of prefabricated dishes is to standardize the manufacturing process of Chinese food and transfer it from the back-end restaurant (end b) and family kitchen (end c) to the front-end food processing enterprises, so as to realize large-scale production. Food processing enterprises can give full play to their scale advantages, restaurants can reduce costs and increase efficiency, consumers can harvest conveniently and quickly, and the efficiency of the whole industrial chain will be significantly improved. There are many Chinese cuisines, various cooking methods, huge differences in local tastes, and the process of Chinese food standardization is relatively slow. In recent years, with the increase of labor and rent costs in the catering industry, the demand for b-end has become stronger and stronger. At the same time, the preservation technology represented by quick freezing (to solve the problem of preservation), compound condiments (to solve the problem of taste) and cold chain logistics (to solve the problem of transportation) have developed rapidly, and Chinese prefabricated dishes have entered the fast lane of development.
The epidemic has catalyzed both supply and demand, and the actual penetration rate has increased. Due to the limited hall food, catering enterprises have made efforts to take out, prefabricated dishes and other non hall food businesses, and the number of prefabricated dishes has increased greatly. At the same time, there is a huge demand for cooking and goods storage during the period of home isolation, and the restriction of hall food during the festival has also stimulated the demand of the family banquet market. During the epidemic period, the outbreak of the industry has cultivated consumer awareness, and catering, new retail, new consumption and other enterprises have entered the market one after another, making extensive exploration in the consumption scene and price band, so as to lay a foundation for the development of C-end in the future.
At present, the industry is still in the early stage of development. Under the demand of catering enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the demand of b-end is relatively clear. We expect that the long-term market space of Chinese food prefabricated dishes at b-end is expected to exceed trillion. Due to the wide variety of Chinese food and huge differences in cooking technology, the industry pattern of overall dispersion and concentration of categories may appear in the future.
Focus on three types of investment opportunities: 1) enterprises with automation and large-scale production end and the ability to create large single products will occupy a high market share in the advantageous categories by virtue of cost-effective advantages. It is recommended that Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ; 2) Enterprises with excellent single store model and moat "central kitchen + terminal" mode relying on supply chain recommend Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: the b-end of China's Prefabricated dishes is in the stage of accelerated penetration and the C-end is initially concerned due to the catalysis of the epidemic
Prefabricated Kwai is a finished product or semi finished product made of agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products, which is made up of excipients and pretreated. It is a fast food dish between the food and catering industry, and is produced through industrialized and intensive production by food processing enterprises and central kitchen. From the perspective of development stage, the b-end of Chinese prefabricated dishes is in the stage of accelerated penetration and the C-end is initially concerned due to the catalysis of the epidemic. For 2B consumers, prefabricated dishes can not only improve the efficiency and standardization of meals, but also save labor costs; For 2C consumers, prefabricated dishes can simplify cooking steps while providing delicious food. We estimate that the scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable industry will be about 240 billion in 2021. Under the resonance of 2B and 2C demand, the industry is expected to expand to nearly 480 billion in 2025, with CAGR of about 18%. At present, there are many new entrants. The types of enterprises can be divided into six categories: traditional prefabricated vegetable enterprises, quick-frozen enterprises, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery enterprises, fresh retail platform, catering central kitchen and catering supply chain platform. In the short term, the industry pattern is expected to remain fragmented; In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about enterprises with the advantages of upstream supply chain, midstream product design and downstream channel sales.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : Prefabricated wind! Opening of the golden age of multi cause resonance
Prefabricated wind: multi cause resonance, opening of the golden age. We predict that the retail scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to reach 601.7 billion in 2030, corresponding to 12.7% CAGR in 21-30 years. The future drive lies in the clear demand of b-end catering enterprises and the expansion of the market after the cultivation of C-end consumption habits. The current pattern is relatively scattered (according to Zhiyan consulting, the total market share of CR10 in the industry is only 14.2% in 2020). Due to the high cost of cold chain transportation and the difficulty of consumers, the enterprise has strong regionality. At present, the core competitive factor is the cost advantage under economies of scale, and the one with high efficiency is expected to win.
Referring to the fast-frozen rice noodle track in the growth maturity stage, the leading Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) / Sanquan focuses on fried dough sticks / dumplings respectively, and the specialized division of labor or the way to break the situation. Relevant enterprises continue to expand in their own advantageous categories. From a long-term perspective, the industry may present an integration situation with categories as the aggregation unit.
Taking advantage of the Japanese market and the growth path of China's Prefabricated vegetables, we have made an in-depth review of the Japanese market. Compared with Japan, China's Prefabricated vegetables industry is experiencing a macro and industrial background similar to its outbreak stage (1970s-1980s). We believe that China's Prefabricated vegetables market will develop in the direction of high permeability and high concentration in the future. By exploring the growth path of riling group and Kobe products, we believe that the common elements for the expansion and strength of prefabricated vegetable enterprises lie in the diversification of product categories, the consideration of channels and the improvement of supply chain layout.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : looking at the future development of Chinese food chain from a longer perspective
Under the impact of the short-term epidemic, the stability of the profitability of Chinese restaurants has been greatly tested. Although the operation of catering enterprises is still very difficult in the short term, if we look at the future development of Chinese food chains from a longer perspective, we think there is no need to be pessimistic: 1) the upgrading trend of Chinese brand catering consumption has just begun, and the epidemic may lead to the weakness of short-term consumption power, but it does not change the long-term trend; 2) The Chinese catering market has a vast space. On the one hand, the proportion of Chinese dining out is still vastly higher than that in developed markets such as the United States. On the other hand, young consumers have a stronger sense of identity with Chinese food culture, which is conducive to the rise of Chinese food chain brands; 3) From the development experience of overseas food and beverage leaders, the deterioration of the external environment and their own blind expansion will bring difficulties to the operation of enterprises, but it is often a window period for enterprises to change themselves. Enterprises with strong self correction ability will survive the crisis and regain growth.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, we believe that the most difficult period of brand chain catering may be in the past. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the recovery of offline passenger flow and the further increase of residents' consumption expenditure in catering service industry, it will form a strong support for the recovery of stores. In the medium and long term, there is still much room for the sinking of local chain catering brand stores in China, and the third and fourth tier markets show better profitability under the advantages of rent and labor cost. It is suggested to focus on jiumaojiu, Haidilao, Helens and Naixue's tea and sipping sipping.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the impact of the epidemic may gradually slow down in the future. The catering semi-finished products industry is still the blue ocean market
Catering supply chain, the reversal is coming, not afraid of wind and rain, not afraid of cold. The catering supply chain industry has maintained rapid growth, and there is still a large space from the ceiling in the future. According to ibis data, in 2019, the sales of quick-frozen food catering in China accounted for about 36%, of which the sales of quick-frozen hot pot materials accounted for about 60%, which was outstanding. The sales of quick-frozen rice noodles and other products were relatively low. In terms of the volume of 120130 billion in the whole industry, the catering market scale was about 43-47 billion yuan. Covid-19 epidemic has a great impact on the catering industry, and then has a certain negative impact on the upstream quick-frozen food materials. The impact of the epidemic may gradually slow down in the future. The catering industry is expected to gradually moderate repair, and the reversal is gradually coming. The catering semi-finished products industry is still a blue ocean market.
From a short-term perspective, focus on cost, demand and pattern evolution. 1) Cost: the price rise trend of raw materials is still in progress, and the pressure of different enterprises is different. Part of the pressure can be transferred by raising the price; 2) Demand: wait for the recovery in the later stage of the epidemic, the trend of the food industry can be expected, and the logic of increasing the penetration rate of short-term stock transformation can be enough to support considerable growth; 3) Pattern: segmentation competition may intensify. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to stand out with R & D capability as the spear and scale effect as the shield. From a long-term perspective, a good track + a good company are preferred. In terms of track selection, it is suggested to pay attention to the industries with large downstream scale, rapid growth and rapid development of brand chain; From the perspective of company screening, the competitive barrier of production-oriented supply chain companies is usually stronger than that of service-oriented companies. For high-quality production-oriented companies, deep processing capacity is the core barrier. In addition, if they can have comparative advantages in raw material acquisition, new product R & D and channel control, they will enhance their competitiveness.
