On Friday, the market was originally expected to be a good trading day, because the expectation of RRR reduction continued to be released, and today there is MLF expiration. I thought that the RRR reduction would come quickly, and the MLF would also be reduced slightly, but these two expectations have not been fulfilled. In addition, the epidemic is still continuing, the threat to the industrial chain is increasing, and the overall performance of the market is weak.
Near the morning closing, brokerage stocks suddenly plunged Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) once collapsed to the limit, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) also fell sharply, and it was close to the limit in the morning Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) told the Chinese reporter of the securities firm that the company operates normally and there are no undisclosed matters that should be disclosed. However, according to the data of China stock market news, on April 16, Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) will announce the annual report performance of 2021, and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) also lifted the ban of 450 million shares today.
From the perspective of market structure, Xinneng car led the decline today, with the market value evaporated by nearly 200 billion yuan in the morning. On April 15, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of smart car Bu, sent a document in the circle of friends today, saying that if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all science and technology / industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain will stop production after May, especially the automotive industry.
He Xiaopeng, founder of Xiaopeng automobile, also said on his microblog: if Shanghai and surrounding supply chain enterprises cannot find a dynamic way to resume production, all vehicle factories in China may be shut down in May. The good news is that some ministries and departments in charge are doing their best to coordinate, and we look forward to the support and joint efforts of more governments and departments in charge.
bull market flag bearer suddenly diving
The unexpected thing that the stock market is expected to continue to be strong this morning is that the stock market has suddenly plunged.
The diving of the whole sector starts from two stocks, one is Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) . The stock suddenly collapsed in the morning, and the share price was hit to the limit.
The other stock is Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) . The stock opened low and went low, and the chips continued to press on the limit.
so what happened? Analysts believe there are three reasons:
First, market concerns have not been responded to and market expectations have not been realized. In recent days, various parties have continuously released positive expectations, such as reducing reserve requirements and even interest rates. And this expectation already existed in March last year. However, from today's MLF interest rate, it is lower than market expectations. If coupled with the lower than expected events in March, many market participants told Chinese reporters of securities companies that although the prospect is still promising, short-term confidence has encountered some twists and turns.
Second, according to the Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) response to the Chinese reporter of the securities firm, in view of the fluctuation of the company's share price, the company's operation is normal and there are no undisclosed matters that should be disclosed. However, according to the data of China stock market news, the company will announce its annual results tonight or tomorrow. Therefore, the market tends to believe that the annual report of the company may be lower than the market expectation.
Third, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) . The main reason for the decline of the stock may be the lifting of the ban. In September 2021, 453654168 RMB ordinary shares (A shares) were privately issued to 23 issuers such as CAITONG Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the registration, custody and sales restriction procedures of shares were completed in Shanghai Branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation on October 15, 2021. This part of the equity has been lifted today.
new energy vehicles plummeted, and the two bosses spoke
From the perspective of sectors, the main force of market decline today is not brokerage stocks, but new energy vehicles. The overall sector fell by nearly 4%, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by more than 5%.
In terms of news, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of smart car Bu, sent a document in the circle of friends today, saying that if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all science and technology / industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain will stop production after May, especially the automotive industry. Since mid April, some enterprises have started to cut off supply and shut down production due to the closure of Shanghai and other enterprises.
At 8:30 p.m. last night, he Xiaopeng, founder of Xiaopeng automobile, posted a microblog saying that if Shanghai and surrounding supply chain enterprises cannot find a dynamic way to resume production, all vehicle factories in China may stop production in May. The good news is that some ministries and departments in charge are doing their best to coordinate, and we look forward to the support and joint efforts of more governments and departments in charge.
how big is the impact
so how big is the impact of the industrial chain
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) issued a research report that the current round of epidemic began in March. Guangdong, Shanghai and Jilin, as the core areas of China's automobile industry, are affected by the epidemic to varying degrees. In order to solve the problems caused by the "smooth supply chain of automobile industry", the Ministry of automobile industry feedback and supply chain coordination in a timely manner. Shanghai, Guangdong and Jilin are the core areas of China's automobile industry. In 2020, the automobile output of the three regions was 8.44 million, accounting for 33% of China's total automobile output; In 2020, the sales volume of passenger cars in the three regions was 2.93 million, accounting for 15% of the total sales volume of cars in China. At the level of listed enterprises, there are about 23 independent parts enterprises in the areas affected by the epidemic, including 17 in Shanghai, 4 in Changchun and 2 in Guangzhou. There are 21 foreign-funded parts enterprises in the affected areas, including Bosch, Yazaki, Denso, Jtekt, ZF, Magna, Virginia, etc., supporting customers to design Volkswagen, GM, Ford, SAIC, FAW, Toyota, Mercedes Benz, BMW, etc.
Nanfang Dongying said that first of all, various epidemic prevention policies led to transportation difficulties, which had a great destructive effect on the coordination of the supply chain. In addition to international auto suppliers such as Bosch, ZF and anbofu, Shanghai also gathers many parts suppliers in the field of intelligent driving, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , horizon and so on. Since Tesla factory landed in Shanghai, a large number of upstream suppliers have landed in Shanghai. Coupled with policy support, Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta have become important places for the development of intelligent new energy vehicle industry. As a major port and an important city supplying auto parts, the transportation obstruction caused by the epidemic has caused great trouble to the supply of auto parts, and many auto enterprises whose production bases are not in Shanghai have also been affected by the epidemic.
According to the data of Morgan Stanley, at present, although the impact of the epidemic on Shanghai and Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) port is controllable, the road transportation in the Yangtze River Delta is greatly limited, which makes many vehicle manufacturers face a shortage of parts. According to the calculation of BOCOM international, although some auto enterprises still have surplus parts inventory, it is estimated that it can only support 1-2 weeks.
Secondly, many suppliers and car factories shut down in order to cooperate with the epidemic prevention policy, resulting in capacity loss, but it is expected to have a limited impact on the annual production. Several automobile manufacturers announced that their suppliers or their own production bases had stopped production due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures, resulting in huge capacity loss. However, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that considering that Shanghai and Jilin are expected to start to organize resumption of work and production in mid April, and various parts suppliers and vehicle manufacturers are also improving their supply chain management capacity, it believes that the impact of short-term shutdown will not constitute a constraint on the production of the whole year
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