Today (April 15), A-Shares continued to adjust again. The performance of the whole day index was poor. It was basically running below the green disk in the morning. Although it turned red in the afternoon, it fell back and went down again. At the end of the day, it even ushered in a wave of small diving, with a panoramic view of the weak pattern.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index fell 0.45% to 321124 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.56% to 1164857 points; Gem fell 0.24% to 246036 points.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, many popular stocks even fell by the limit, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. In terms of industries, shipbuilding, banking, steel, electric power, auto parts and other industries rose against the market; In terms of theme stocks, longevity drugs, vitamins, CRO, condiment concept, artemisinin and other counter market trends have become popular.
In terms of capital, according to the website of the people’s Bank of China, in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China carried out 150 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation on April 15, 2022, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.85% and 2.10%, both flat with the previous period.
hot sector
Top 10 gainers in industry sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top 10 gainers in concept sector
Top 10 decline in concept sector
individual shares monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
north and South funds
According to the arrangement of the Hong Kong stock exchange, the period from April 15 (this Friday) to April 18 (next Monday) is the good Friday and Easter holidays. The Hong Kong stock market is closed, and normal trading will resume on April 19 (next Tuesday). During the period, A-Shares were normally traded.
In terms of Hong Kong stock connect (southbound), according to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Hong Kong stock connect service will not be provided from April 15 (this Friday) to April 18 (next Monday), and Hong Kong stock connect service will be opened as usual from April 19 (next Tuesday).
In terms of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect (north direction), according to the arrangement of the Hong Kong stock exchange, the service of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect will not be provided from April 14 (this Thursday) to April 18 (next Monday), and the service of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect will be opened as usual from April 19 (next Tuesday).
message surface
1. According to the central bank’s website, the people’s Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). In order to increase the support for small and micro enterprises and “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, for urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and agricultural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced on the basis of reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage point. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.
2. According to the website of the CSRC, in order to implement the new securities law and the opinions of the State Council on further improving the quality of listed companies (GF [2020] No. 14) and further standardize the management of investor relations of listed companies, the CSRC issued the guidelines on the management of investor relations of listed companies, which will come into force on May 15, 2022.
3. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in March 2022, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of commercial housing decreased month on month, the number of cities decreased, and the number of cities decreased year on year increased; The sales price of commercial housing in each line of cities stabilized month on month, with a year-on-year decrease or decrease in increase.
4. According to surging news reports, on April 15, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference to introduce the situation of actively expanding effective investment. Sun Wei, deputy director of the Technology Department of the national development and Reform Commission and first-class inspector, said that as the base of the operation of the digital economy, the big data center can not only effectively drive the investment in upstream and downstream industries such as information technology R & D and manufacturing, communication network and energy, but also promote the comprehensive digital transformation and upgrading of economy and society, regional coordinated development, and further smooth the circulation and application of data elements, which plays an important basic role in continuously strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy. It is estimated that during the “14th five year plan” period, the investment in big data center will increase by more than 20% every year, and the cumulative investment in all aspects will exceed 3 trillion yuan.
institutional views
For the current market, Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the gradual easing of the international geopolitical situation and the expected landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the main contradiction affecting the market trend in the short term has shifted from external disturbance to the point outbreak of the epidemic in China. Before the epidemic can not be effectively controlled, consumption, manufacturing and other related industries may continue to be affected. However, as China’s policy side will continue to maintain the stability of monetary policy, and macro-control tends to be loose, multiple positive factors will be introduced successively in the future or lead the market out of the decline.
In terms of operation, the short-term market risk appetite is still low, and we will continue to focus on the relevant steady growth sectors such as the real estate industry chain and banks that benefit from loose monetary policy, as well as the relevant sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals that exceed the expectations in the annual report and the first quarter report; In the medium term, we can pay attention to the consumption, tourism and other related industries that have priority to be repaired after the elimination of the epidemic disturbance, as well as the growth tracks such as photovoltaic, semiconductor and new energy that are expected to be repaired after the recovery of market risk appetite. In terms of time, we can gradually focus on steady growth, consumption recovery and manufacturing boom.
In the macro aspect, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that from the historical experience, after the RRR reduction, driven by the broad currency expectation, the interest rate will have a downward trend. However, the difference this time is that after the tightening cycle of overseas monetary policy, the market is pessimistic about the space for subsequent RRR and interest rate cuts. The landing of this RRR reduction may be interpreted by the market as the “last” RRR reduction in this cycle, which means that there is only the expectation of interest rate reduction with limited space to support the wide currency in the future. The market will gradually weaken the expectation of wide currency, which shakes the foundation of low interest rate volatility.
In addition, monetary easing is only the intermediate target of monetary policy, and the ultimate goal is to stabilize growth and broaden credit. To effectively achieve the goal of steady growth, the key is to fundamentally boost aggregate demand. As long as the policy still insists on the goal of stable growth and does not relax, the strength of industrial policy and fiscal policy may be on the line, and the bad interest rate in the medium term still exists.
However, before the inflection point of fundamentals appears (the effective control of the epidemic may be the key), the short-term market may have a certain degree of expectation of interest rate reduction, or will maintain the pattern of narrow volatility of interest rates. Strategically, there is still room for band operation and leverage arbitrage, but the time window may not be too long. The medium-term dimension still needs to be based on defense. The landing of RRR reduction may mean the substantive confirmation of the inflection point of interest rate. It is recommended to maintain the allocation opportunity after waiting for the release of bad conditions for a short period of time.
Previously, Dongguan securities also mentioned that the release of the RRR reduction signal will help to improve the market risk appetite. It is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, and pay attention to the implementation of RRR reduction and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is suggested to focus on the midline layout, and pay attention to the finance, real estate, food and beverage, electrical and gas equipment, steel, coal and other industries.
