On April 14, the stock prices of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) and Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) of vaccine leaders both collapsed and plunged. As of the closing, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) fell 14.19%, the market value evaporated 30.7 billion yuan in a single day, and the intraday share price once fell more than 18% Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) also saw a sharp drop in the market. The limit was once closed during the session, and fell sharply by 9.46% on the same day.
In terms of news, the World Health Organization (who) recently announced that the expert group considered that only one dose of HPV vaccine can produce the same immune effect as 2-3 doses, and can effectively prevent cervical cancer caused by HPV infection. On the same day, the relevant personnel of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) secretary office said in an interview with the reporter of Beijing Business Daily that "the argument that three doses of HPV vaccine can only be given one dose has no clinical data support, and the company will actively respond".
vaccine leader share price diving
On April 14, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) opened slightly higher. Shortly after the opening, the company's share price turned green, and then dived under large orders. After the share price fell by more than 10%, it continued to decline, and once fell by more than 18%.
As of the closing of the day, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) share price was 116 yuan / share, down 14.19%, and the market value fell below 200 billion yuan. As of the closing on April 14, the total market value of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) was 185.6 billion yuan. As of the closing of the previous trading day, the total market value of the company was 216.3 billion yuan. After calculation, the total market value of the company evaporated 30.7 billion yuan in only one trading day.
For the company's stock price plummeted and other issues, the reporter of Beijing Business Daily called Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) board secretary's office on the morning of April 14 for an interview. The staff of the other party said that "everything in the company is normal, and the stock price plummeted mainly due to the news released by the WHO. It is indeed mentioned that three doses of HPV vaccine can only be given one shot, but there is no clinical data support. The company is also discussing and actively dealing with this situation".
On the same day, the Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) share price also plunged, once closed the limit, and finally fell sharply by 9.46% on the same day. The share price was 257.59 yuan / share, with a total market value of 156.5 billion yuan. At noon on April 14, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) issued a statement and announced that the bivalent HPV vaccine currently approved by the company in China is three doses (women aged 9-14 can take two doses), and the company will continue to sell according to the currently approved doses until the national policy is changed.
It is worth noting that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) has recently been given a buy rating by a number of securities companies.
On March 31, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) released a research report, saying that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) was given a purchase rating of 138.28 yuan at the latest price. The reasons for the rating mainly include that the accelerated volume of HPV vaccine drives the rapid growth of the company's traditional vaccine business; EC + micro card tuberculosis matrix mainly focuses on the student physical examination market, which is expected to increase rapidly. In addition, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) also released a research report on March 31, saying that it maintained the purchase rating of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) at the latest price of 140.24 yuan. The reasons for the rating mainly included that the performance forecast exceeded expectations and the acting HPV vaccine performed well; The recombinant covid-19 vaccine has been approved for sequential vaccination in China and is expected to continue to increase its performance; The self-developed varieties have entered the cashing period, and the preventive micro card is expected to start rapid and large-scale production in 2022.
Cinda securities, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities and other securities companies also gave Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) buy rating.
how much impact does it have on the industry
Under the condition that the HPV vaccine market is in short supply and enterprises continue to expand production capacity, the effect of single dose HPV vaccine vaccination recognized by the World Health Organization has had a great impact on the HPV vaccine market. Some people believe that the future market demand of HPV vaccine may face a certain decline.
It is understood that the HPV vaccines currently on the market in the world include the bivalent vaccine produced by GlaxoSmithKline in the UK, the tetravalent vaccine and the bivalent vaccine produced by methadone in the United States, and the bivalent vaccine produced by Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) in which methadone's HPV vaccine jiadaxiu is managed by Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) exclusively.
Statistics show that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) 2010 landed in the A-share market on September 28, 2010. It is a high-tech biological enterprise integrating vaccine and biological products research and development, production, sales, promotion, distribution, import and export. The company's products include bacterial vaccine products, viral vaccine products and therapeutic biological products. By the end of 2020, a total of 10 products were on sale and one product was in emergency use.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) disclosed that the semi annual report of 2021 showed that in the composition of operating revenue, the company's independent product vaccine generated a revenue of 6.037 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 86.88% during the reporting period; The acting product vaccine generated a revenue of 7.116 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 33.99% Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) relevant staff said in an interview with the reporter of Beijing Business Daily that the company's agent products include four price, nine price HPV vaccine and five price rotavirus vaccine, and there is no disclosure only on the revenue of HPV vaccine.
Prior to this, frost sullivan had released a report that, in terms of the total population, the vaccination rate of HPV vaccine in China is generally low, less than 1%. Even considering the expected growth of HPV vaccination rate, 234 million women aged 9-45 in China will not be vaccinated with HPV vaccine by 2025. Assuming three doses per person, an additional 701.7 million doses may be required. Based on the number of people vaccinated by frost Sullivan, now, assuming two doses per person, the additional demand is reduced to 467.8 million doses; Assuming a single dose per person, the additional requirement becomes 233.9 million doses.
In this regard, Xu Xiaoheng, an investment and financing expert, told the Beijing Business Daily that as the exclusive agent of jiadaxiu, HPV vaccine has brought a lot of revenue to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and "three doses of HPV vaccine can only be given one shot". If it is true, it will certainly have a certain impact on the company's performance, but whether this statement can be supported by data remains to be verified.
