Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Maotai, the benchmark of a shares, together can always trigger a lot of “stories”.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released an in-depth tracking report recently, which revised the target price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) to 2246 yuan / share, with the title “seeking change in adversity and not falling in prosperity”. However, in February 2021, when Maotai’s share price just crossed the 2500 yuan mark, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) once gave a target price of 3000 yuan, and the title of the research report used “three trillion from the beginning, the snow and spring breeze from the longer slope”, which was full of optimism. This sharp contrast in sentiment, coupled with the price difference of more than 700 yuan in the prediction of stock price in one year, many investors believe that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has lost the style of securities companies and suffered a “slap in the face” these two days.
However, the author believes that there is no need for the outside world to make a mockery of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in fact. Because the forecast of the target price is easily affected by market factors, different time dimensions, different industry backgrounds and different economic environment, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) at this time, a new research report is released to adjust and revise the target stock price of Maotai, which can not be regarded as a complete “slap in the face”.
At the end of January 2021, the closing price of Maotai stood at 2000 yuan and exceeded 2600 yuan on the last trading day before the long Spring Festival holiday. Since then, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has released more research reports from Moutai, and believes that Baijiu sector investment is still optimistic. After 3 trillion of Moutai’s market capitalization, there is still a broad space for the long term to raise the target price of the company’s 1 to 3000 yuan. At that time, the whole liquor sector’s bonus period continued, many listed companies issued cross-border bulletin on liquor making, and the agencies were holding Baijiu Baijiu sector. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ‘s research report had its basis.
But a year later, not only did the organization collapse, but Maotai also experienced a series of events such as the appointment of a new chairman, the release of new products and the restart of self operated e-commerce. The changes at the company level are different from those a year ago. This year, the epidemic has repeatedly led to the continuous downturn of mass consumption, which has been dragged down from low-end to high-end, and Maotai can not stay out Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is reasonable to lower the target price of Maotai. After all, no securities company can predict the economic situation and the general trend of the industry one year in advance. As long as the research report has reasonable basis, rigorous logic and can justify itself, we should not “beat it to death”.
Judging from the historical records, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has repeatedly “hit the target” in the study and judgment of Maotai stock price. In March 2019, August 2019 and April 2020, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) once set target prices of 1000 yuan, 1018 yuan and 1500 yuan. Later, Maotai stock price also broke through these targets one by one. Nevertheless, investors should treat the Research Report of securities companies rationally and objectively. They should neither blindly superstitious because they have predicted correctly, nor wantonly bombard them because they are inaccurate or even lower their expectations.
However, there are also reasons why investors disapprove and scoff at the forecasts of some research reports. In the past, the quality of some research reports was not high, and the phenomenon of following the trend of speculation and “saying the first words” was not uncommon. Interestingly, at present, there are great differences in the prediction market of Maotai again. While Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) lowered the expectation and gave the target of 2246 yuan, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) is positive, as much as 2800 yuan. But who can laugh to the end between different voices can only be tested by the market
CITIC’s “face” investment promotion and encouragement, who will Maotai eventually “fail”?
Who the hell did you listen to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) lowered the target price of Maotai by nearly 800 yuan China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) but strongly push: it can rise to 2800
