A shares have never lacked hot spots, and the logistics and aviation sectors have been popular recently. Under the background that China adheres to the general policy of “dynamic zeroing”, why are these two sectors continuously active and individual stock prices rising frequently?
logistics and aviation rise together
Since this week, the rise of the logistics sector has opened, and the Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) logistics index even hit a record high on April 13; The wind smart logistics index rose more than 5% on the same day.
As of the closing on April 14, Guanghui Logistics Co.Ltd(600603) recorded five consecutive boards, with the share price standing at a record high of 6.28 yuan Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.Ltd(300013) this week, the cumulative increase is 68.33% Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co.Ltd(603648) silianban, the share price reached a new high of 13.34 yuan Within China Railway Materials Company Limited(000927) 4 trading days, three daily limits were recorded.
In addition, Guangdong Gensho Logistics Co.Ltd(603813) , Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management Co.Ltd(002889) , Y.U.D.Yangtze River Investment Industry Co.Ltd(600119) and other stocks rose, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Hengtong Logistic Co.Ltd(603223) , etc. were active one after another.
Not only that, the aviation sector has continued to be active in recent days. On April 14, A-share aviation stocks strengthened throughout the day, with Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) and other collective gains. On the Hong Kong stock market, Meilan Airport soared by more than 14%, while Air China Limited(601111) , China China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) shares and Beijing Capital Airport shares rose by 4%.
On the overnight US stock market, aviation stocks also rose sharply, with American Airlines up more than 10%, Southwest Airlines up more than 7%, mesa airlines and Delta Airlines up more than 6%, United Airlines and Alaska Airlines up more than 5% and Boeing up nearly 4%.
Performance of American Airlines on April 13 source: wind
In terms of news, the performance of American Airlines shares is closely related to a financial report. On the same day, Delta Airlines disclosed data and realized an adjusted operating revenue of US $8.16 billion in the first quarter, higher than the market expectation of US $8.12 billion; At the same time, Delta Airlines is expected to turn losses into profits in the second quarter, with double-digit revenue growth and total sales revenue returning to 97% before the epidemic. Boosted by this positive data, the sector “took off” as a whole.
On the one hand, it is worth mentioning the positive news of the US aviation epidemic.
According to the associated press, on April 13 local time, the U.S. government announced that it would extend the nationwide mask order for aircraft and public transport for 15 days due to the continuous rise of covid-19 pneumonia cases. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it would extend the mask order, which was originally scheduled to expire on April 18, to May 3 to allow more time to study the Omicron subtype mutant strain that currently causes the vast majority of cases in the United States.
“dynamic reset”
In terms of the epidemic situation in China, it was reported that from 0:00 to 24:00 on April 13, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported 3020 new confirmed cases, including 2999 local cases, 2573 cases in Shanghai and 325 cases in Jilin; There were 26391 new asymptomatic infections, including 26318 local cases, 25146 cases in Shanghai and 674 cases in Jilin.
The National Health Commission stressed that at present, the epidemic is still running at a high level, the scope of the epidemic is further expanded, and the prevention and control is in a critical period. We should continue to adhere to the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, do not hesitate or waver, and implement various prevention and control measures in every link.
In addition, according to the latest requirements of local epidemic prevention and control policies, in addition to the passenger Health Code Green code, some airports across the country must also provide passengers with a negative certificate of nucleic acid test within 48 hours, that is, the scheduled departure time of the flight minus the nucleic acid report result time (the nucleic acid test time displayed by health treasure) is less than 48 hours.
China Post Securities pointed out that China continues to adhere to the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, which is conducive to early detection and treatment, quickly cut off the route of virus transmission, and ensure the normal operation of all walks of life.
Under the background of “dynamic clearing”, Yi Bin, chief strategist of Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) Research Institute, said in an interview with China new longitude and latitude that there are three reasons for the rise of logistics and aviation sectors: on the one hand, judging from the recent new number of people in a single day in Shanghai, although it still remains high, the probability of further deterioration is low; On the other hand, as the decision-makers pay more attention to the epidemic situation in China, it will be highly certain that the epidemic situation will be effectively controlled in April; Third, from the perspective of the resumption of the epidemic in 2020, market will not trade until the inflection point of the epidemic occurs, but with the inflection point of the epidemic growth, investors’ attention will gradually shift to the rhythm and process of offline economic recovery .
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told Zhongxin Jingwei that the aviation sector was mainly due to the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic on the global aviation industry, and the gradual recovery of the US aviation industry from the impact of the epidemic, which boosted the aviation sector as a whole.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) chief analyst of the transportation industry, permit, told Zhongxin Jingwei that the recent performance of the aviation sector is mainly the expectation that the overseas epidemic recovery will drive the overall recovery. In this round of large cycle caused by covid-19 epidemic, the aviation sector has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity.
In terms of the logistics sector, Chen Li said that first, the news has a certain catalytic impact on the sector. Recently, policies such as the opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market and the implementation opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of cold chain logistics and transportation have been issued. It is expected that the logistics industry will maintain rapid development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Second, a series of problems in the supply chain distribution system under the recent Shanghai epidemic show that China’s logistics system as a whole still has great room for growth. Under the vigorous construction of the logistics system during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the prospects of relevant sectors are good and attract capital bargain hunting layout.
In addition to the above reasons, Wu Yifan, deputy director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of the transportation industry, also believes that the performance of the logistics sector is better than that of the big market this week. Recently, many departments have issued a document to ensure the smooth transportation of freight logistics. is expected to gradually get out of the early impact .
market repair is just the beginning, continue to pay attention to
For the future, Yi Bin believes that with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic in Shanghai and China, offline economic repair will be an important main line of market transactions in the second quarter. The basic logic of offline economic recovery path is consistent with the relaxation direction of prevention and control policies. In various scenarios related to offline recovery, the recovery path follows: express delivery → flow of people, close consumption scenario → long-distance consumption scenario, required → optional, business travel → entertainment. From the perspective of market industry, the market repair of express, logistics, aviation, airport and other sectors is only the beginning. In the future, with the gradual verification of data, it is still worthy of continuous attention .
Chen Li said that in the aviation sector, the continuous variation and outbreak of covid-19 virus will still pose a constant threat to the recovery of China’s aviation industry, but in the long run, China’s aviation industry is in a growth period, and the industry is expected to achieve a rapid recovery after the epidemic. At the same time, the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention strategies during the epidemic period will further reduce the impact on the aviation industry, it is suggested to bargain hunting layout and be optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the sector .
In terms of the logistics sector, Chen Li believes that under the construction of the national unified market, China’s logistics segments and related infrastructure industries will usher in rapid development, and the sector has a large room for rise in the future.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) macro chief analyst Cheng Qiang’s team believes that the number of provinces affected by the epidemic has gradually increased since March, and the epidemic control policy has become stricter due to the faster spread of Omicron. However, the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport have stressed the need to break through the traffic jam and help the logistics industry recover and further drive economic growth. it is expected that the impact will be significantly weakened after April .
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) Zeng Jingke’s team pointed out that China’s aviation industry is a typical growth cycle industry. Investment depends on Residents’ income in the long term, industry supply and demand in the medium term and market expectations in the short term.
The team further pointed out that in the short term, the market expectation and stock price inflection point are generally 1-2 quarters ahead of the inflection point of supply and demand growth. With the adjustment of policies and epidemic situation, the stock price fluctuation rises. It is expected that the market expectation is expected to accelerate the recovery, and it is suggested to bargain hunting layout. In the medium term, the biggest feature of this round of aviation cycle is that the demand is overstocked by short-term variables and the supply is tightened globally. Therefore, the demand rebound may be faster and stronger, while the supply release or lag longer, the ticket price may be repaired before the passenger occupancy rate, and the rising momentum will be more sustained.
