The double points policy has always been an important motivation to promote the high-speed development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China. However, with the substantial growth of the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the supply and demand pattern has been broken, and the trading price of points has plunged.
In 2021, the positive integral generated by the market as a whole is three times that of the negative integral, and the trading price of the integral has fallen below 1000 yuan per minute. At the peak of 2020, the trading price of points was as high as 4000 yuan per minute. The industry expects that if the current policy is implemented, the price of carbon credits may be reduced to 200 yuan in the future.
Insiders pointed out to the Red Star capital bureau that the trading income of points is the largest additional income of new energy vehicle enterprises in addition to subsidies. The reduction of this cake is one of the reasons for the price increase of new energy vehicles. The regulatory effect of the double credit policy is failing, and relevant government departments are considering starting the revision. A number of industry insiders suggested setting up a point pool to regulate the market point supply and stabilize the point price in the long termP align = “center” points supply and demand are seriously unbalanced p align = “center” supply and demand ratio reaches 3:1
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, with a market share of 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that in 2020.
This is inseparable from the promotion of the double point policy. The so-called double point policy refers to the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger vehicle enterprises implemented in China on April 1, 2018. The positive integral of CAFC (enterprise average fuel consumption integral) is carried forward or transferred to affiliated enterprises, and the positive integral of nev (new energy vehicle integral) can be freely traded to offset the negative integral of nev and CAFC.
However, the shortage of points has become a thing of the past.
According to the announcement of double points of passenger car enterprises in 2021 recently released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2021, China’s automobile industry generated a total of 155349 million positive points of fuel consumption, a year-on-year increase of 255.7%; 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points were generated, with a year-on-year decrease of 47.6%; In terms of new energy vehicle points, it generated positive points of 6.7672 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%; The negative score was 810000, a year-on-year decrease of 24%.
In other words, in 2021, the positive integral of fuel consumption and the positive integral of new energy will total 22.3 million, while the negative integral of fuel consumption and the negative integral of new energy will total 6.95 million, and the positive integral is three times of the negative integral. Among them, the supply of the overall fuel consumption integral of the market is 2.5 times of the demand, and the supply of new energy integral is 8 times of the demand.
industry insiders pointed out to the Red Star capital bureau that the oversupply of points is caused by the explosive growth of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the growth of fuel vehicles is not obvious, and the fuel consumption has also decreased
The fuel consumption points and new energy points of affiliated enterprises are calculated after internal merger. 32 enterprises including BAIC, FAW, BMW (imported), Dongfeng, Geely, Chery, Mercedes Benz (imported) and Jaguar Land Rover (imported) need to purchase new energy positive points totaling 2410000 yuan. 40 enterprises without negative fuel consumption points such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and so on can trade new energy positive points totaling 5640000 yuan, In addition, since the positive points of new energy after 2020 can be carried forward to the next year according to the proportion of 50% on the premise of meeting the requirements, there will be more new energy points in the market in 2021P align = “center” from seller’s market to buyer’s market p align = “center” point price plunge
The change of supply and demand makes the point trading change from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market.
According to the research report released by Shengang securities, the average unit price of double point trading in 2018 was Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) yuan / minute, 8001200 yuan / minute in 2019, 1204 yuan / minute in 2020, and once rose to 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan / minute in 2021.
Integral trading income has become an important source of income for new energy vehicle enterprises. Weilai automobile (09866. HK / NiO. US) sold about 200000 new energy vehicle points in 2021, with a revenue of 517 million yuan, equivalent to 2585 yuan per point; Ideal automobile (02015. HK / Li. US) sold about 70000 new energy vehicle points in 2021, with a revenue of 200 million yuan, equivalent to 2857 yuan per minute.
However, with the substantial growth of the new energy vehicle market, the trading price of points has been significantly reduced in early 2022. Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, once said: “the trading price of positive points this year may fall to 500 ~ 800 yuan / minute.”
In addition, according to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars is expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, and the trading price of positive points may fall to 200 yuan / minute
This has directly led to a sharp decline in the income of some auto enterprises, especially some models specially produced to earn new energy points, which are not only unprofitable, but even lose one by selling one. For example previously discontinued Euler black and white cats lost 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan per car in terms of integral value and profit
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation, said that since the fuel consumption score returned to the positive score range of 10 million points, the fuel consumption score also reached a new high, 2021 new energy score price should be less than 1000 yuan, or even less than 500 yuan. This is also the reason why car enterprises want to increase the price of new energy vehicles. The new energy points could have a profit of 10000 yuan, but now it is a profit of 1000 yuan. The gap needs to be made up by the price increase p align = “center” half of the fuel consumption points of six automobile groups are positive p align = “center” large groups achieve fuel consumption point balance
Insiders told the Red Star capital bureau that previously, major OEMs had not carried out electrification transformation and did not launch several new energy vehicles, so they were a large number of outsourcing points. In 2020, the maximum trading price of double points rose to nearly 4000 yuan per minute, devouring the profits of automobile enterprises and forcing the main engine plant to accelerate the electrification transformation.
Red Star capital Bureau noted that among the six major automobile groups, FAW Group, Dongfeng Group (00489. HK) and BAIC group have negative overall fuel consumption scores in 2021, and the rest have positive overall fuel consumption scores.
In 2021, the fuel consumption score of FAW Group is – 250000 and the new energy score is 50000. The main source of its negative fuel consumption score is FAW Volkswagen, and the negative fuel consumption score is as high as – 570000.
Dongfeng Group’s fuel consumption score is – 250000 in 2021, up to – 1190000 in 2020 and 20000 in new energy.
BAIC group’s fuel consumption score in 2021 is – 400000 and new energy score is 30000.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ) group’s fuel consumption score was 20000 in 2021, up to – 1.41 million in 2020, and the new energy score increased from 30000 in 2020 to 110000.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH) the fuel consumption score in 2021 is 650000 and the new energy score is 290000. This is mainly due to the contribution of GAC passenger cars. In terms of fuel consumption points, GAC passenger cars contributed 870000; In terms of new energy points, GAC passenger cars contributed 440000.
Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ( Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . SH) in 2021, the fuel consumption score was 1.75 million and the new energy score was 310000. The main contributor was SAIC GM Wuling, which brought 2330000 fuel consumption score and 120000 new energy score.
Red Star capital Bureau noted that nearly half of the new energy models ranked among the top in China’s sales in 2021 were small and micro electric vehicles built by car companies for double points.
Wuling Hongguang Mini EV ranked first, with a sales volume of 390000 in 2021 and a cumulative breakthrough of 550000 since its listing in 2020. Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has made great contributions to deducting Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) internal double points.
Chery ant, which ranks seventh, sold 75000 vehicles in 2021; Changan Benben e-star, which ranks eighth, sold 75000 vehicles in 2021; The 10th ranked Euler black cat sold 69000 vehicles in 2021.
Cui Dongshu pointed out that due to the relatively poor performance of fuel consumption points in 2021, it is mainly joint venture brands. The fuel consumption savings of the joint venture brand in the past few years are still good, which has weakened significantly in recent years, mainly due to the poor performance of new energy. However, in 2021, the joint venture can achieve the balance of fuel consumption points within the scope of its large group. Although the effect of new energy points offsetting fuel points is still not significant in 2021, this actually achieves our combined driving goal of double points, and promotes the reduction of fuel consumption of fuel vehicles through new energy vehicles in 2021P align = “center” double points policy is about to be revised p align = “center” the industry suggests establishing ” points pool “
The double points policy is designed to replace the gradually withdrawn purchase subsidy. When the purchase subsidy of new energy vehicles is completely withdrawn, new energy enterprises can obtain income by selling points. At the same time, the double points policy can also restrain traditional car enterprises from producing too many high fuel consumption models.
However, the serious oversupply of positive points in 2021 will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the trading price of points, which deviates from the original intention of the policy.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ), pointed out that it is suggested to study the establishment of integration pool with reference to the grain reserve regulation mechanism of agriculture, so as to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of integration price and ensure the effective operation of double integration policy. “The relationship between the supply and demand of points is affected by multiple factors such as the output and fuel consumption of various car enterprises in the industry, which is unpredictable, which will lead to the oversupply of points in some years and the oversupply of points in some years. By establishing the management system of point pool, when the supply of points exceeds the demand, the excess points can be put into the point pool, and when the supply is less than the demand, the points can be taken out for use, so as to adjust the supply and demand balance of the point market in each year and ensure the balance of supply and demand The effective operation of the double points policy. “
Fang Yunzhou, founder of Nezha automobile, also suggested at this year’s national two sessions that “the country form a point pool to maintain a stable balance of point prices.” He believes that it is very necessary to stabilize the trading price of points. It is necessary to ensure that the price of points is more than 2000 yuan / minute. Further study the double point policy to make it reach the balance of market supply and demand without reducing the integral value of single vehicle new energy.
In fact, relevant government departments have begun to take action.
At the end of 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology held a working symposium with relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the State Administration of market supervision, saying that it was necessary to scientifically and reasonably set the requirements for the proportion of points in subsequent years, explore the establishment of a flexible mechanism, and will start the revision of the measures with relevant departments and bureaus.
Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said recently: “the Ministry of industry and information technology is strengthening the systematic research on the problems faced in the new stage of industrial development, will revise and improve the double points management method, explore the establishment of a flexible adjustment mechanism, and clarify the requirements for the proportion of points in subsequent years.”
Insiders predict that from the perspective of the generation and trading rules of double points, the subsequent adjustment may be to increase the requirements for the proportion of new energy points, reduce the number of points that can be obtained by a single vehicle, or reduce the target value of fuel consumption, so that more enterprises can generate negative points of fuel consumption
