On April 14, cinno research, a market research institution, released the latest panel Market Research. The institution said that since April, large-size TV panels have been "falling endlessly", and the decline is expected to continue until June. On the other hand, at the performance presentation of Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) ( Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) . SZ) held recently, BOE executives said that the panel price had reached the bottom.
"The panel price is based on the supply relationship, but this year is relatively special and has the superimposed influence of the world political and economic situation. At present, the panel price has reached the bottom and I believe it will be stable for some time; in the long run, once the economy recovers, it will still promote the price of valuable products." At the performance presentation of BOE in 2021 held on April 12, BOE executives told investors.
At the same time, research institutions have given different expectations. Zhou Hua, an analyst at cinno research, said, "due to the serious deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine since the end of February, Samsung and LG, the world's largest and second-largest brands of LCD TVs, have reduced the orders of panel manufacturers. Originally, the industry expected that the price of TV panels below 55" could fall to the bottom during March and April, but according to the current situation, the price decline may continue until June.
Since Q3 of last year, the panel prices represented by large-size TV panels began to decline, and the share prices of leading panel enterprises including BOE and Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) ( Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) . SZ) also continued to decline. When the panel price will rise again has become the most concerned topic of investors. At the end of last year, many parties, including leading enterprises, research institutions and securities companies, predicted that the price of Q1 panel would rise again this year.
However, affected by multiple factors such as the international situation and the epidemic situation, the demand for TV panels has not recovered as expected. According to the latest forecast of cinno research, LCD TV panels of all sizes will continue to decline, of which the decline of 75 inch and 65 inch LCD panels in April was $8.
At present, the color TV market at home and abroad is depressed. According to AVC data, the retail volume of China's color TV market in the first quarter of 2022 was 9.03 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%; The scale of retail sales was 28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. In the overseas market, due to the decline in European market demand, Samsung Electronics significantly reduced the total orders of the panel factory in March and April to 2.5 million pieces, and LG Electronics also reduced the purchase volume of LCD panels in the second quarter to about 700000 pieces.
Cinno research analyst Liu Yushi told reporters that the time point of international demand recovery is the most critical factor affecting the future trend of panel prices. At present, the international situation and epidemic situation are in a complex situation, and the future TV panel market is still full of many uncertainties.
Although the price of LCD panel fell seriously, Liu Yushi told reporters that China's panel manufacturers have no risk of overcapacity and the situation is controllable. It is reported that the average production rate of BOE TFT-LCD production line in February was 84%, down 8 percentage points from January; The overall production rate of TCL Huaxing TFT-LCD production line in February was 88%, down 9 percentage points from January.
It is worth noting that the price of LCD panel fell, and the generally recognized "increment" played a role, and the prices of OLED and miniled screens failed to maintain an upward trend. Liu Yushi told the financial Associated Press, "although the degree is different, but (OLED, mini LED screen) does fall. The price decline of large-size Mini led and OLED is the result of mass production and manufacturers' initiative, which is not the same logic as the decline of LCD price."
