Since the end of last year, China’s refined oil prices linked with international oil prices have seen “seven consecutive rises”. As China’s retail price of refined oil ushers in a new round of price adjustment window, market participants expect that under the background of the recent decline in international oil prices, China’s refined oil is expected to decline for the first time in the year, and the decline range is large.
Zhuo Chuang information data show that as of the closing on April 13, the change rate of China’s reference crude oil on the ninth working day was – 13.95%, and the corresponding reduction range of gasoline and diesel was 605 yuan / ton, equivalent to 0.48 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline and 0.51 yuan per liter of No. 0 diesel.
During the “seven consecutive rises”, China’s oil price has increased by about 2125 yuan / ton, about 1.69-1.71 yuan / liter. The last reduction in China’s oil price was on December 17, 2021. At that time, gasoline and diesel were reduced by 130 yuan / ton and 125 yuan / ton respectively. Therefore, if the oil price is reduced this round, it will also be the first reduction in China’s oil price in nearly four months. At present, the price of No. 92 gasoline across the country remains at 8.6-8.8 yuan / liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline is 9.2-9.4 yuan / liter. After this round of reduction, No. 95 gasoline in most areas will return to the “8 Yuan era”.
Zheng Mingya, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, told the futures daily that during this pricing cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuated greatly, but the focus showed an overall downward trend. Specifically, while OPEC warned that it was impossible to make up for Russia’s export loss of 7 million barrels of oil and other liquid energy per day, and the market’s expectation of supply shortage supported the oil market, the market was worried that covid-19 control measures would lead to a decline in crude oil demand, coupled with the release of oil strategic reserves by the International Energy Agency, the fear of supply shortage was temporarily alleviated, which was bad for the oil market.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures senior researcher Huang Liunan told reporters that since the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine in March, the internal and external oil prices have fallen sharply from the high in March in the past period, thus driving the correction of China’s refined oil prices. Data show that at present, the internal crude oil futures have fallen by more than 17% compared with the high of 805 yuan / barrel in March, and WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures have fallen from the high of 130 US dollars / barrel in March to about 100 US dollars / barrel at present.
Since Tuesday, oil prices outside China have rebounded again. As of the afternoon closing on April 14, the internal crude oil rose 2.64% to 666 yuan / barrel. In this regard, Huang Liunan believes that after the recent decline to the key resistance level, the recent rebound in oil prices has an obvious game nature, and the sustainability of the rebound is in doubt. There are many uncertain factors affecting the global crude oil market, which will aggravate the fluctuation of oil price, and the trend of oil price in the second quarter is bound to be unstable.
\u3000\u3000 “From the perspective of demand, the recent severe epidemic situation in some parts of China has had a marginal impact on the demand for oil products. The price of refined oil in China is weak, and the profit of oil refining continues to be under pressure. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery has continuously declined from about 66% at the beginning of the year to about 49% last week. The operating rate of main refineries has also shown a downward trend in the past month, which is relatively low. At the same time, the number of commercial flights flying around the world has decreased significantly. The demand for overseas aviation coal is still relatively low But with the impact of sanctions and rising inflationary pressure, European economic growth may face obvious pressure in the later stage. ” Said Li Yunxu, crude oil analyst at SDIC Anxin futures.
On the supply side, Li Yunxu said that the disturbance of the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine to the expectation of crude oil supply is still dominant. At present, it is difficult to avoid the decline in Russian oil exports, but there are recent signs that the decline in April may be significantly lower than the previous market expectations. After Biden authorized the release of 180 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, last week, the IEA announced that Member States would coordinate the release of 120 million barrels of oil in the next six months, half of which (60 million barrels) came from the announced volume of the United States and the other half from other Member States, that is, a total of 240 million barrels of strategic oil reserves were released in the recent market. Measured by half a year, the daily supply was as high as 1.5 million barrels, forming a marginal relief for the expectation of short-term supply tension.
From the current point of view, Huang Liunan believes that when the situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased and the US dollar has accelerated the return, the core of the market’s differences over oil prices lies in whether it is necessary to release the bad news of rapid tightening of liquidity in the short term. From the perspective of the whole second quarter, it is expected that under the condition of low inventory and low supply, the oil price will remain relatively high, and there will be no significant decline.
In Li Yunxu’s view, although there are some signs that the export of Russian crude oil has been blocked less than expected recently, the cautious participation of major traders and banks in Russian oil has not changed. After the digestion of bad reserves, the spot of benchmark oil may still lead the rebound of futures and usher in support in the short term. Looking forward to the second quarter, in the context of the slowdown of crude oil demand growth, the marginal increase of production at OPEC, the United States and other major supply sides is relatively certain, and the release of strategic reserves may effectively make up for the reduction of Russian exports. The most tense time of crude oil supply expectation has passed, and the rebound of oil price is expected to be difficult to break through the previous high.
