The sales of Sony Ericsson holdings in the first three months fell by 97.12% year-on-year, Longguang group by 58.2%, Hongyang real estate by 49.67%, Yuexiu real estate by about 45%, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) year-on-year by 37.44%, Datang real estate by 31.2%
Since April, real estate enterprises have successively announced the sales performance in the first quarter of this year. However, due to the "xiaoyangchun" breach of contract in the property market this year, reflected in the sales data, the sales performance of most real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, from January to March this year, the average sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.2%, which was also lower than the same period in 2020. Kerui statistics also show that in the first quarter, the cumulative performance of more than 80% of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, of which nearly 40% of the enterprises decreased by more than 50%. There are only 2 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, down 3 from the same period last year; There were 46 real estate enterprises with more than 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year.
In an interview with the daily economic news, a number of listed real estate enterprises said that due to the high base in the same period last year and reaching the historical peak, the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter of this year decreased significantly year-on-year. In the current market environment, the month on month rise and fall may be more timely to reflect the micro changes of the market. At the same time, because the purchase sentiment has not been repaired and the expectation is pessimistic, most urban real estate enterprises are not enthusiastic about pushing the market. In the second quarter, real estate enterprises will still focus on conventional marketing means such as channel taking customers and discounts.
second quarter performance may continue to decline
According to the data released by several institutions, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first three months of this year was almost "halved" compared with that of last year. The reporter of the daily economic news inquired about the performance reports released by some real estate enterprises and found that the sales performance of real estate enterprises generally decreased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter.
For example, the contract sales volume of Sony holdings in the first three months was about 27.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.12%; Longguang group's equity contract sales were about 17.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.2%; The contract sales amount of Hongyang real estate was 19.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.67%; The contract sales amount of Yuexiu real estate was about 13.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 45% Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) contract sales amount was about 31.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.44%; The contract sales amount of Datang real estate was 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%.
Lu Qilin, research director of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed to the daily economic news that the trading volume of new houses in the first quarter of 2021 was a relatively high point in the market, and the trading volume of new houses in the whole year hit a record high, which also benefited from the active trading in the first half of the year. Since last year, the relatively tight credit policy has made the real estate enterprises lack the willingness to obtain land and start work. At present, the number of projects available for sale has decreased, resulting in the real estate enterprises facing no houses to sell. In addition, the repeated epidemic this year also had a negative impact on the sales of new houses in many cities, which in turn affected the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter.
At the same time, the reduction of supply is also one of the reasons for the synchronous decline of sales. According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, the average monthly supply of commercial housing in 50 key cities in the first quarter of this year was 13.91 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%, and a decrease of 26.7% compared with the average in the same period from 2019 to 2021.
In addition, according to the statistics of 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, at the end of the first quarter, the number of new housing projects for sale in China decreased by 48.8% compared with the same period in 2021, which basically fell synchronously with the sales performance of real estate enterprises. It is expected that the performance of real estate enterprises will still decline sharply in the second quarter. Moreover, the willingness of local real estate enterprises to start construction is also relatively low. For example, less than 30% of the construction projects started in Zhengzhou in early March and less than half so far, which will undoubtedly affect the willingness of buyers to buy a house and the subsequent market supply.
Pan Hao, senior analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that the performance decline of real estate enterprises is synchronized with the adjustment of the overall market. On the one hand, it is affected by the market downturn, on the other hand, it is also the result of last year's high base. In the first quarter of 2021, the sales area of major cities increased by nearly 100% year-on-year.
"The epidemic has led to pessimistic income expectations and a serious shortage of consumption power in various industries. The credit crisis of superimposed real estate enterprises has not been eliminated, and some real estate enterprises are still waiting for the easing of policies, especially financial policies." A relevant person of a real estate enterprise said in an interview with reporters.
The China Index Research Institute believes that although the real estate credit environment and regulatory policies improved in the first quarter, it still takes time for the policies to be effective, and the overall market continues to maintain a low temperature trend. The epidemic situation in some regions repeatedly disrupted the rhythm of market recovery, superimposed the lack of willingness of real estate enterprises to push the market, and the supply side contraction further restricted the release of demand. Based on the uncertainty of the future market, at the recent performance meeting of real estate enterprises, Many real estate enterprises will no longer announce their annual sales targets, and the annual sales targets of some real estate enterprises have increased slightly or remained unchanged compared with last year. In the market atmosphere at the beginning of 2021, even the head real estate enterprises with a large base set an annual sales target of 20% growth is a common phenomenon.
it is expected that the market will improve in the second half of the year
From the regulatory side, many cities have recently introduced new policies to stimulate the demand for house purchase, involving loosening the purchase and sale restrictions, reducing the mortgage interest rate, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, etc. According to incomplete statistics, since this year, all localities have issued loose policies related to the property market more than 100 times. What the market is most concerned about at present is how these policies will affect the future market? Can it drive the local purchasing power and drive the sales performance of real estate enterprises?
According to Wu Rui, managing director of Savills Shenzhen, the market has reached the bottom. Now the policy and market data are picking up, but whether this bottom will recover soon or "L" long-term bottom remains to be seen. In the future, the market is expected to be better in the second half of the year than it is now.
Lu Qilin analyzed and pointed out to the reporter of the daily economic news that the current favorable policies of the real estate market issued everywhere will certainly have a positive impact on future sales. However, since most of the current policies are issued from the macro level, most of the policies have not been issued with specific implementation details, especially the credit policies still need the cooperation of banks to be implemented in place.
\u3000\u3000 "For example, the benchmark interest rate of second-hand housing loans in Zhengzhou has been implemented, but the new housing loans are still floating; secondly, buyers are worried about the risk of uncompleted housing when buying new houses, so they turn to the second-hand housing market, which leads to the first recovery of the second-hand housing market in many places. Therefore, although these relaxed policies can produce certain benefits to the real estate market, the specific effect still needs to observe the implementation strength of various places, and the epidemic situation in various places is frequent, and the real estate market will recover in the short term There should be no conditions for a substantial recovery in the city. "
Pan Hao believes that the current market is a "risk outbreak of real estate enterprises" superimposed on the "market repair process". At the same time, the recent emergency epidemic response measures have forced the real estate market in some cities to be suspended. The current stage of policy adjustment is to repair the confidence of market participants, especially customers, and the overall repair of the market still needs time.
