On April 11 local time, the official website of the World Health Organization (who) announced that the who recently held an immunization strategy expert group (SAGE) meeting to review the evidence of one dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. The expert group considered that only one dose of HPV vaccine can produce the same immune effect as 2 ~ 3 doses of HPV vaccine, which can effectively prevent cervical cancer caused by HPV infection. With the news fermenting, on April 14, the shares of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) of the three leaders of A-share HPV vaccine fell sharply, of which Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) fell by 14.19%.
According to public information, the bivalent HPV vaccines of Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) have been approved, while Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) is the tetravalent and jiuvalent HPV vaccine acting for MSD. Based on the conclusion of who, what the market can expect is that these vaccine companies could make money 2-3 times before, but now they can only make money once, which will have a great impact on the performance, and the sharp decline of share price is inevitable.
How many times HPV vaccination has the best effect is a scientific problem. Although the who has a clear judgment, it is not a regulatory agency, and all it can do is make recommendations. The starting point of its recommendations is to improve the vaccination coverage of HPV vaccine as soon as possible and protect more women from cervical cancer all over the world. On March 29, a report released by Pascal Health Science and technology organization showed that it has been 15 years since the first HPV vaccine was approved for use, but the vaccination rate of girls under the age of 15 has increased very slowly. By 2019, the global vaccination rate of this group will only reach about 15%. The reasons for the slow growth of vaccination rate are as follows: first, the price. For example, one shot of nine valent HPV vaccine is as high as thousands of yuan; The second is the serious shortage of supply. At present, there are only five approved HPV vaccines in the world, and it is common that one vaccine is difficult to obtain.
Whether Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , MSD or Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , the latest reply is clear, that is, under the current drug administration policy, a series of clinical, data support and registration change procedures need to be performed for the change of vaccination grade. In other words, even if the final one dose vaccination is popularized, it will not be implemented immediately after the above report of the WHO. In addition, in view of the current low HPV vaccination rate and serious shortage of supply, one dose of vaccination does not mean a decline in sales and prices. The market scale of three doses for one person and one dose for three people is the same, and the vaccine sales will still be highly deterministic. In addition, who also recommends that 1-2 dose vaccination plan be provided for women aged 9-20, and 2-dose vaccination plan be provided for women over 21.
Why did the who release the news on April 11 without any mandatory effect and affecting the short-term market pattern make the share prices of the above three leading companies fall sharply? The author believes that this is due to the height risk characteristics of the biopharmaceutical industry. Because the risk of product frustration is too high, investor confidence is easy to shake. Specifically, the risk of biopharmaceutical is reflected not only in the huge capital investment risk, but also in the risk of whether the technology itself is effective, as well as the competitive risk brought by demand changes and other competitors, even ethical and moral risk. Among all industries, investment in biomedical industry is most likely to form polarization.
For ordinary investors, it is very difficult to understand the cutting-edge technology of biomedicine. If they want to invest in biomedical stocks, they must have stronger risk tolerance, otherwise they should be cautious.
