Core conclusion: OPEC output in March was 28.56 million barrels / day, with a month on month increase of 57000 barrels / day. Taking into account the inflation factors caused by geopolitical tensions and the impact of China’s recent epidemic, OPEC expects the global crude oil demand to increase by 3.67 million barrels / day year-on-year in 2022, down by 480000 barrels / day from the previous month.
Oil price: the international oil price rose month on month in March. In March 2022, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price rose. The monthly average spot price of Brent crude oil was 118.98 US dollars / barrel, up 20.65 US dollars / barrel (+ 21.00%).
OPEC + meeting: the agreed output in May 2022 increased by 432000 barrels / day month on month. With the gradual easing of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of crude oil demand, on July 18, 2021, OPEC + meeting decided to increase production by 400000 barrels per day per month from August 2021 until it fully covered the current production reduction of about 5.8 million barrels per day. On March 31, 2022, the OPEC + meeting decided to increase the agreed production in May by 432000 barrels / day month on month, maintaining a small increase in production.
OPEC output: the output increased by 60000 barrels / day month on month in March; The reduced domestic production is lower than the agreed amount of 820000 barrels / day.
According to the second-hand data sources in the April report of OPEC, the total output of OPEC in March was 28.56 million barrels / day, an increase of 57000 barrels / day month on month. Among them, the output of ten countries with reduced output increased by 80000 barrels / day month on month, 820000 barrels / day lower than the agreed volume; The insufficient output mainly comes from Nigeria and Angola, whose output is 360000 barrels / day and 280000 barrels / day lower than the agreed volume respectively.
Non OPEC output: the output is expected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC’s April monthly report predicts that the crude oil production (including condensate) of non OPEC countries will increase by 2.7 million barrels / day in 2022. Among them, the United States, Russia, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and Norway are expected to increase by 1.29 million barrels / day, 430000 barrels / day, 160000 barrels / day, 160000 barrels / day, 130000 barrels / day, 110000 barrels / day and 100000 barrels / day respectively. It is estimated that the crude oil output of the United States from 2021 to 2022 will be 11.19 million barrels / day and 12.04 million barrels / day respectively.
Global crude oil demand: reduce the growth rate expectation in 2022. OPEC’s April monthly report predicted that the global economic growth in 2022 would be 3.9%, down 0.3% from the previous month. Considering the inflation factors caused by geopolitical tensions and the impact of China’s recent epidemic, it is expected that the global crude oil demand will increase by 3.67 million barrels / day year-on-year in 2022, down by 480000 barrels / day from the previous month. OPEC’s April monthly report predicts that the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2022 will be 28.96 million barrels / day.
Inventory: in February, OECD crude oil inventory was + 700000 barrels month on month, and petroleum product inventory was – 23.5 million barrels month on month. In February, the OECD commercial oil inventory was 2.599 billion barrels, down from – 372 million barrels year-on-year and – 22.8 million barrels month on month, lower than the five-year average of 334 million barrels. Among them, the crude oil inventory was 1.254 billion barrels, a year-on-year increase of – 194 million barrels, a month on month increase of + 700000 barrels, lower than the five-year average of 185 million barrels; The inventory of petroleum products was 1.345 billion barrels, down from – 179 million barrels year-on-year and – 23.5 million barrels month on month, lower than the five-year average of 148 million barrels.
Investment advice. At present, the international oil price remains high and volatile. It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) oil and gas exploration and production sector, CNOOC, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) ; (2) Oil service and equipment, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ; (3) Satellite chemistry, a leading enterprise in light industry of non oil route, and Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ; (4) Leading private refining enterprises that underestimate value and actively distribute new materials, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , etc.
Risk tips: crude oil prices fall, the demand for petrochemical products is less than expected, changes in oil production and domestic production, US Iran relations, etc.
