How to view the potential sales space of new forces of car making
Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng take SUV as the cut-off entrance and gradually layout in the six market segments. Since Weilai released es8 in 2018, the new forces of car making have begun to launch their representative models in different segments. In terms of commonness, the first car of the three is SUV, mainly because SUV meets the characteristics of large space, high practicability and strong power in the Chinese market. At present, the highest monthly sales volume of Xiaopeng has reached about 16000, and the ideal is about 14000, but the highest sales volume of Weilai is only about 10000. Why is there such a difference? How to look at the subsequent sales development of the three? This report will analyze the product competitiveness from the comparison between the released models and their competitors. Finally, it will sort out the models to be launched and look forward to the future sales volume.
Listed models: ideal has outstanding performance in competitive products, and Weilai and Xiaopeng have room for improvement. Compare the sales volume, advantages and disadvantages of different models and competitive products: 1) ideal: ideal one has outstanding performance in similar competitive products with excellent cost performance, accurate positioning of market population, increased program mixing, good reputation quality and rich intelligent configuration. The average sales volume in 2021 reached 7541, fully ahead of competitive models. 2) Weilai: es8 is positioned as a high-end pure electric vehicle. Its market is dominated by BBA fuel and its oil to electricity conversion, and its competitiveness is weak. At present, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in this market is generally low, and es8 belongs to the medium level; ES6 also faces the same problem. The market is dominated by BBA fuel vehicles, but the large size, strong power and rich configuration of ES6 make it perform better in the competitive products. 3) Xiao Peng: the positioning is relatively low, so the sales volume of its competitive products is basically more than 10000. P7 competitive products are BBA cars and new energy vehicles such as model 3 and Han, with high customer acceptance. Therefore, the sales volume of P7 is second only to the above brands and performs well; G3 locates the compact SUV and P5 locates the compact car. Because consumers in this level of market pay attention to the cost performance, and the price of pure electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same level, the market is still dominated by fuel vehicles, and the sales of pure electric brands are low.
New car Outlook: all brands continue to extend their product lines
In terms of new car comparison, Weilai has released the most new cars, with both cars and SUVs. Xiaopeng G9 drives the brand pricing upward, and the ideal L9 is expected to create the second popular model. 1) Weilai: et7 and et5 are similar to the layout of es8 and ES6 in the car market. Their main competitors are high-quality electric vehicle products such as BBA, Han, Ji krypton 001 and model 3. Their advantages lie in their outstanding power performance and the standard configuration degree of configuration, such as air suspension and auxiliary driving, is higher than that of similar competitors. The monthly sales are expected to be 4000 and 7000 respectively; ES7 is positioned above ES6. The market is dominated by BBA fuel vehicles and Tesla Model y, with a monthly sales of 6000 vehicles expected. 2) Xiaopeng: Xiaopeng G9 is the first mass production vehicle equipped with xpilot 4.0 function due to its size, high power performance and intelligent configuration. It is speculated that its intelligent level may be ahead of traditional fuel vehicle competitors, and its monthly sales are expected to be 6000. 3) Ideal: L9 ensures high-quality space and power performance. In addition to the ideal leading intelligent level, the ideal L9 product power will be ahead of the competitive products. The pricing strategy with a price of 500000 will not limit its sales due to high prices. It is expected that the ideal sales in September will be 5 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 vehicles.
Investment suggestion: looking at the sales volume expectation of each brand from the perspective of product competitiveness
Considering the listing time of some models, it is estimated that the sales volume of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal will be 183000, 183000 and 150000 respectively in 2022, and the steady-state sales volume (only considering the new cars currently on the market and analyzed in the article) will be 312000, 240000 and 192000. The advantage of Weilai is that there are many models launched at present; Xiaopeng’s sales volume is expected to reach the highest in 2022 with the large volume of old models and the blessing of G9; The ideal is to continue to build L9 based on the first popular one. If there are more new cars in the future, it will help the company’s sales to a higher level.
Risk tips
1. The sales volume of new cars is lower than expected;
2. The industry demand is lower than expected.
