Since March this year, the real estate sector has stepped out of the independent market, and the net fund value of heavy real estate stocks has continued to rise. There are signs that while some fund managers join the ranks of “real estate fans”, many fund managers choose to reduce their holdings of real estate stocks, and they have differences on the future research and judgment of real estate stocks.
heavy position real estate stock fund with outstanding performance
Data show that as of April 12, the three active equity funds with the highest net value growth this year were managed by the same fund manager. Under the management of Huanghai, the net value of 10000 macro timing and Multi Strategy mixing, 10000 Xinli flexible configuration mixing and 10000 selected mixing have increased by 30.91%, 27.98% and 25.63% respectively since this year.
Behind the outstanding performance of these three funds is the choice of heavy positions in real estate stocks. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, among the top ten heavyweight stocks with flexible allocation and mixing of wanjiaxinli, real estate stocks occupied six seats, and several stocks were close to the “top grid” heavyweight. Among them, Gemdale Corporation(600383) positions account for 9.85%, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) accounts for 9.55%, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) accounts for 9.49%, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) accounts for 9.22%, and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) accounts for more than 8%. In addition, the other four heavy warehouse stocks of the fund belong to the coal sector. Overall, 57.21% of the fund’s assets are allocated in the real estate industry and 33.73% in the mining industry.
In the fund’s 2021 annual report, fund manager Huang Hai made it clear that he was optimistic about the real estate and coal sectors. Huang Hai believes that companies with undervalued and stable dividends are scarce assets for some time in the future, and continue to be firmly optimistic about the benefit sectors of stable growth policies such as coal and real estate.
some funds missed the market
Since the second half of last year, the real estate sector has shown signs of recovery. Data show that since August 1, 2021, 94 of the 134 stocks in the real estate industry have risen, and 46 have increased by more than 30%. Among them, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) rose 277.90%, and Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) rose 207.55%. Among the leading real estate stocks, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) rose 89.11%, Gemdale Corporation(600383) rose 72.16%, and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) rose 68.38%.
Some funds missed the gains brought by this round of real estate stock market. At the beginning of this year, some fund managers said they were optimistic about the real estate sector. But when talking about the operation of the real estate sector recently, he said bluntly: “unfortunately, I didn’t buy it. I’m sorry.”
From the trend of heavy position stocks and fund net value in the fourth quarter report of the fund in 2021, many funds have significantly adjusted their positions in real estate stocks. For example, a fund named “China returns” for example, a fund named “China China returns”, for example, has 64.83% of the real estate sector by the end of 2021. By the end of 2021, 64.83% of the real estate sector will be allocated by the end of 2021, with 64.83% at the end of 2021. The top 10 heavy warehouse stocks being 60038 Gemdale Corporation(600383) \ atthe end of 2021, and the top 10 heavy warehouse stocks are Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , are real estate related enterprises. However, as of April 12, the net value of the fund has increased by 3.23% this year, and the fund manager may have changed positions and shares.
Coincidentally, a fund called “financial real estate” holds 37.55% of the positions in the real estate sector, and five of the top ten heavyweight stocks, including Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) hold 9.62% and 9.25% of the positions respectively, but the net value of the fund has increased by – 1.85% since this year.
pay attention to the repair of enterprise fundamentals
In the view of a well-known real estate fund manager, the cyclical nature of some real estate stocks has weakened. “I bought real estate stocks very early. The reason why I bought them at that time was not because of the cyclical nature, but because these companies were seriously undervalued and the price performance of the stocks was very good.” He believes that the rise of this round of real estate stocks is mainly due to policy expectations. The recent differentiation within the sector does not mean that this round of market has ended. Compared with the growth stocks that have been adjusted before, the advantages of valuation and cost performance have weakened.
A private equity fund manager believes that investors’ confidence and expectation in the real estate industry are heating up; In the process of industry restoration, enterprises with high leverage ratio have greater pressure, the profitability of some real estate enterprises has improved, and the development space of companies with stable operation will be broader; Some real estate enterprises with state-owned enterprise background may have opportunities for M & A and expansion. The private equity fund manager said that due to the influence of market sentiment, the short-term trend of real estate stocks will be repeated, and the follow-up needs to pay attention to the actual repair of enterprise fundamentals.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief economist Huang Wentao said that recently, the market’s views on the future trend of the real estate industry have been divided. In the context of the increasing easing policy this year, whether the real estate sales data in the third and fourth quarters can recover will become an important feature to observe the recovery of the industry. In the next stage, wide credit support will be mainly reflected in the scale of real estate M & A loans and meeting the reasonable capital needs of high-quality real estate enterprises. Only by working at both ends of supply and demand at the same time can we quickly promote the further improvement of the industry.
