The resistance of middle and lower reaches manufacturers to high priced lithium has received some feedback. The superimposed epidemic has impacted the supply chain and blocked logistics, resulting in some manufacturers reducing production scheduling and lithium carbonate price correction. The industry expects that the overall supply of lithium carbonate will be tight this year, but it will reach a balance in the next 2-3 years.
short term demand weakening
The price of lithium carbonate fell below the 500000 yuan mark for the first time this year. Xinlune lithium data show that on April 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China fell by 5000 yuan to 495000 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.
Lithium carbonate is the core raw material of lithium battery industry chain, which directly affects the midstream products such as lithium iron phosphate cathode and electrolyte solute lithium hexafluorophosphate. Since the beginning of the year, the price of lithium carbonate has soared from 291000 yuan / ton to 515000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 77% in three months. On March 25, lithium carbonate fell for the first time, but it remained at a high level of more than 500000 yuan / ton as of April 11.
500000 yuan is regarded as an important pass in the price of lithium carbonate. After lithium carbonate broke through this barrier in early March, resistance appeared in the industrial chain. “As far as I know, these battery and material manufacturers represented by leading enterprises have been seeking collective boycott, and do not buy lithium carbonate of more than 500000 yuan / ton,” Moke, founder of real lithium research, said in an interview with the securities times · e company
The recent price decline is mainly due to the weakening demand side. Jiang Sha, an analyst at xinlune lithium, told the securities times · e company that in order to reduce the price, battery factories and cathode material factories have mainly digested inventory since March, and the purchase volume has decreased. Some traders began to sell goods at low prices. In addition, in April, the battery factory’s production schedule was slightly reduced, and the corresponding cathode material factory may also reduce the production schedule at the same time. Therefore, the demand is slightly weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate is somewhat unsustainable.
“The price decline of industrial grade lithium carbonate is more obvious. The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate smelters is still relatively strong, but the focus of transaction has also moved down. Now battery factories and material factories are more resistant to the purchase of high price lithium carbonate.” Jiang Sha said.
The impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain can not be ignored. Many new energy vehicle manufacturers have recently announced that they will stop production. Weilai automobile recently revealed that its supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production since March, and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, the whole vehicle production of Weilai automobile has been suspended. “We are not alone in this situation. Many manufacturers have suspended production.” Li Bin, chairman of Weilai, said when interacting with car owners.
In addition, Tesla, SAIC Volkswagen and Zhiji automobile, which are located in Shanghai, have also successively announced shutdown or production reduction in the near future. Xinlune lithium analysts expect that the production end of new energy vehicles will be affected by the Shanghai epidemic, and the demand reduction for lithium batteries will exceed 5gwh in the current month.
Ningde City, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) base, was also impacted by the epidemic. Xinlune lithium analysts predict that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) local planned lithium battery capacity is close to 250gwh, of which Hudong and Huxi bases are greatly affected, and the lithium battery capacity is expected to be affected by about 60gwh.
Material transportation is also blocked to a certain extent. The reporter of securities times · e company interviewed a number of people in the lithium battery industry chain and learned that the high-speed sections in some areas were affected by the closure, and the timeliness of cargo transportation was weakened. One of the manufacturers disclosed that at present, the supplier’s trucks can enter the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) factory, but the driver can’t get off in the whole process. Chen Yun, deputy director of Ningde Municipal Bureau of industry and information technology, said in a media interview that the timeliness of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in each high-speed checkpoint can be guaranteed by issuing passes and other means.
“The impact of the epidemic is relatively short-term. At present, battery factories and material factories have a certain safety inventory, which can support for about a few weeks, but if they continue to consume, it may have a greater impact, especially the inventory of cathode material factories is relatively low.” A lithium researcher told the securities times · e company reporter.
it is expected to achieve supply-demand balance in 2-3 years
In the long run, the change of lithium price still depends on whether the mismatch between supply and demand can be improved. Jiang Sha believes that if the impact of the epidemic is excluded, the overall market supply is still tight, so the price will not fall very much.
“The temporary price decline may not be able to turn into a trend. Personally, I think the inflection point has not come yet. In the future, the probability will be dominated by high volatility, with consolidation between 400000 and 500000.” Merco believes that there is no obvious sign of easing the strong demand in the downstream market, and the increase in supply may not catch up with the expected growth of demand; In addition, lithium resource transactions are generally denominated in US dollars. At present, the CPI index of the United States is still in a high position, which means that the US dollar may depreciate.
At present, upstream manufacturers are still enjoying the dividends of high priced lithium mines Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) and other companies recently disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter, and the expected increase of net profit was more than 3 times, some of which even reached 10 times.
In the first three months of this year, the production and sales of power batteries were still growing at a high speed. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in March totaled 39.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 247.3% and a month on month increase of 23.3%; The loading volume was 21.4gwh, up 138.0% year-on-year and 56.6% month on month.
The market generally believes that there is no absolute supply gap for lithium ore, and the current price has deviated from the supply and demand side. According to the calculation of Minmetals securities, the global demand for lithium resources is expected to reach 750000 tons of LCE, and the new supply is about 180000 tons of LCE. The supply sources are mainly mature expansion and resumption of production. Theoretically, it can just meet the new demand of global terminals, but the industrial chain stock effect makes the real demand greater than the calculated installed demand.
At the recent electric vehicle 100 people’s meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the reasons for the current round of price rise of power battery materials are basically the same as those for the rise of lithium resource prices from 2016 to 2018. Compared with the previous round of fluctuations, due to stronger demand and expected growth and the impact of the epidemic, the price fluctuation range is greater. It is expected that the supply-demand balance of lithium resources may return to normal in 2-3 years.
Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, also said at the recent press conference of the state information office that this year, China will moderately accelerate the development of lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices.
