Looking back on Wednesday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major indexes opened low in the morning, and the stock index rebounded in the shock in the morning. In the afternoon, under the pull of financial stocks, the stock index once turned red; However, the index dived lower at the end of the day, showing an "inverted V" pattern throughout the day.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, although the stock index fell slightly on Wednesday, individual stocks generally fell, and more than 3800 stocks in the two cities fell. At present, the market is not confident enough to do long, and the mood of capital caution is high. The Shanghai Composite Index saw repeatedly in the area near 3200, making it very difficult for investors to participate. It is suggested that continue to focus on the direction of steady growth and the driving force of performance in the first quarter, and look for low absorption opportunities after the steady market stabilizes .
From a technical point of view, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the A-share market rose on Wednesday, encountered resistance and fell slightly. In the morning, the stock indexes of the two cities jumped low and opened slightly. In the afternoon, the Shanghai index once turned red. In the end, with the decline of many industries again, the stock index was dragged down, and the Shanghai index was slightly sorted around 3200 points throughout the day. During the session, wine making, precious metals and cycle industries bucked the trend, and all heavyweights leading the rise the day before yesterday fell. market hot spots changed again, and investors had a heavy wait-and-see mentality . The trading volume of the two cities is 870 billion yuan, and the characteristics of the stock game remain the same.
As for the future market, the agency further analyzed that whether the stock index can break through the market situation in the future still depends on the continuous rise of mainstream hot spots and the continuous entry of OTC funds. suggested paying close attention to the changes of policies and funds . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai stock index is more likely, and the short-term downward trend of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the market performance was relatively flat after the Qingming holiday, mainly due to the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve and the outbreak of the epidemic in China, the negative impact on market sentiment has been fermented for a long time, and the trading structure is also inclined to the stable growth sectors such as infrastructure and real estate as the policy tone of the national Standing Committee remains positive, macro-control tends to be loose, and the implementation of structural support policies is expected to accelerate .
Meanwhile, the disclosure of annual report is coming to an end, the economic data of the first quarter will be released soon, and the policy effect and industry prosperity will be verified . The capital may return to the stock market, and the pessimism is also expected to be repaired. It is expected that the index after the bottom will return to the upward trend. In terms of investment, it is suggested to maintain the balanced allocation of growth and value.
The agency further stated that before the effective breakthrough in the market, we should still control the overall position and be suitable for low absorption. "Stable growth" will become the main logic driving the operation of the market , pay attention to undervalued and low configured traditional infrastructure such as banks and real estate, building materials, wind power photovoltaic and other new infrastructure, and recommend the appropriate layout of thematic sectors such as price rise of chemical fertilizers and industrial products in combination with performance and cost performance.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the current A-share market is still in the bottom shaking stage due to the impact of overseas austerity and China's epidemic situation . The style and sector differentiation continued. The performance of large cap stocks was still relatively better than that of small and medium cap stocks. The stability and financial style were better than that of consumption and growth. The performance of relevant sectors in the real estate industry chain was strong. The middle and lower reaches of consumption, TMT and other sectors were significantly impacted by the negative impact of the epidemic and fell sharply. Under the background of complex macro environment at home and abroad, it is suggested to focus on large cap value stocks to resist risks and fluctuations.
In the macro aspect, Huatai futures pointed out that the national standing committee meeting held on April 13 mentioned "timely use of RRR reduction and other monetary policy tools". from the experience of nearly five years, after the national Standing Committee mentioned "RRR reduction", the policy is expected to be implemented in the next two weeks. Combined with the current downward pressure on China's economy, the liquidity support required by special debt lending and the maturity of 150 billion MLF on April 15, The probability of implementing the RRR reduction policy this week is high . However, due to the recent loose expectations, market transactions are relatively sufficient, and we believe that the boost to market sentiment is relatively short-lived. In addition, the European Central Bank's interest rate resolution will be ushered in on April 14. We can pay attention to whether the pace of monetary tightening in Europe will be adjusted.
In terms of operational strategy, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that short-term defense is the main and long-term strategic allocation is the key. Configuration suggestions: first, the resource products sector benefiting from the global energy shortage . The long-term tight supply and demand problem is still in place, and the profit certainty is strong. Driven by the economic recovery, there may be a rebound opportunity, and under the background of China's infrastructure gradually developing, the black industry chain, such as ferrous metal and coal, will benefit.
second, the agricultural sector, especially the grain, planting and other sectors , the market is expected to continue with the support of the rapid rise of global food prices and the superposition of policies. The pig and chicken sectors are also of sustainable concern.
third, military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other industries with high prosperity and smooth logic and good long-term growth , can carry out strategic layout, long-term holding, bargain hunting and pay attention to the rhythm of investment.
In addition, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the current undervalued steady growth field still has phased relative allocation value currently focuses on three directions : 1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.) ;
2) risks in manufacturing growth sector including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors have been released , but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors;
3) middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments in 2021, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects , bottom-up stock selection, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
