Today (April 14), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher across the board. In the morning, the stock index fluctuated and differentiated, and the Shanghai index maintained shock consolidation, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index plunged back for a time, especially the gem index callback was strong; In the afternoon, the big finance took another shot, the stock index gradually stabilized, and the industry and subject stocks went long hand in hand, prompting the stock index to further rise and strengthen.
From the disk, the strong return of the pharmaceutical and real estate sector, the “coal super crazy” market is also ready to make a move, the Baijiu sector outbreak, industry and concept sector rose more or less, the local money effect has risen sharply. In the Baijiu sector, Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Tian You De liquor and other trading, Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other gains, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares also soared, returning to the top 1800 yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the main driver of A-Shares has switched from sentiment to fundamentals, while the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening, and a number of pessimistic expectations in the market bottomed out in advance of the fundamental data. First, it is expected that the gradual turning point of China’s local epidemic and the rebalancing of prevention and control policies will underpin the fundamental expectations; Secondly, the economic and financial report data disclosure starting in mid April is expected to further strengthen the urgency of the implementation of the steady growth policy; Finally, we expect that the steady growth policy with real estate and monetary policy as the main focus in the near future will shift from comprehensive development to centralized development, so as to promote the gradual repair of fundamental expectations.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Huajin Securities pointed out that in the process of reshaping the global coal trade pattern or under the new pattern, overseas trade coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. Based on this logic, Yankuang energy, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas production capacity, benefits the most. Under the prospect that overseas coal prices will remain high for a long time, it can form a more powerful support for China’s coal prices, and China’s coal enterprises are expected to maintain a high boom. Relatively optimistic about Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) believes that at this stage, the spot price of coking coal and the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector have three supports: 1) demand is expected to continue to recover under the background of “steady growth” superimposed with “moderately advanced infrastructure investment”; 2) Australian coal imports are short-term or difficult to liberalize, the import volume of Outer Mongolia is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the current situation of overseas imports is weak or difficult to improve; 3) Recently, Shanxi and Shandong provinces have carried out coal mine safety supervision actions, and it may be difficult for China’s coking coal supply to increase in the short term. Under the triple support, the high performance of key listed companies in the sector is expected to continue, corresponding to the current valuation may still be underestimated. We recommend continuing to pay attention to the core targets of coking coal: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) and Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) .
In addition, Guosheng Securities said that at present, the window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report has come. Under the high coal price, the performance of relevant companies has increased significantly. Under the background of the annual decline of capital expenditure in the industry, the dividend proportion is expected to increase, and the sector is looking forward to double-click. China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
[theme two] Baijiu
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the marketing reform of Maotai has been continuously promoted recently. We expect that the company will increase its digital marketing and use its own e-commerce platform and other channels to improve the transparency and fairness of wine purchase. At the same time, this is also an important part of the “five in one marketing law” 1 proposed by the company Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have gradually entered the stage of controlling goods and supporting prices, which reflects the company’s brand confidence, and the company continues to strengthen the accurate delivery of channels and reduce the number of problem dealers and terminals Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) successively raised the dealer payment price and terminal supply price of Guojiao, which are being implemented gradually all over the country. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to companies that are less affected by the epidemic and are expected to make a good start in the first quarter, such as Gujing, kouzi, Fenjiu, etc.
Huachang Securities pointed out that Baijiu Q1 index outstanding indicators, channel performance is healthy, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai’s price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but the leading line of value has been displayed, Moutai’s report acceleration, certainty scarcity, product line more abundant, and mutual trust with the capital market to enhance, is the first choice. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, and Laojiao continues to recommend it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the verification of individual stocks in the quarterly report, focusing on Fenjiu, Huijiu Gujing, sujiu Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Expanding liquor enterprises are concerned about the willingness to maintain high elasticity in the decline of valuation.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that according to the 2021 Baijiu notice and the 1-2 month business situation in 2022, combined with the data of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size, the two main trends of liquor industry development, such as head concentration and consumption upgrading, are still continuing. From the historical experience, the long-term development trend of the industry will not be broken by short-term external factors. Therefore, we think that the main line of Baijiu industry will remain unchanged in the future. We will mainly recommend five high-end Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on.
[Topic 3] covid-19 test
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that China’s epidemic prevention and control will still be the focus of market attention and investment is relatively active. We suggest to focus on the research and development progress of domestic covid-19 drugs and companies related to covid-19 detection industrial chain. Affected by the epidemic, the post epidemic construction is worth considering. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the progress of new medical infrastructure, which is expected to increase the supply of high-quality medical resources and become the core driver of the industry.
In addition, the results of the first quarter will be announced one after another. The epidemic may interfere with the performance of relevant companies. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with deterministic growth in the first quarter. Vaccine and CXO related industrial chains are still sectors with high growth, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In addition, Capital Securities believes that the callback is a buying opportunity, and reiterates its optimism about covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain. The global covid-19 epidemic still maintains a high level of more than 1 million new cases every day, and the epidemic prevention and control has a long way to go. Enlightenment from the high-level operation of the global covid-19 epidemic: prevention should take priority over treatment. Covid-19 vaccine has a significant effect on preventing severe diseases and reducing mortality. Covid-19 virus coexists with humans for a long time, and therapeutic drugs are necessary.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that the performance of the pharmaceutical industry in the first quarter continued the main line of covid-19 epidemic, and we expect the vaccine and covid-19 testing business to maintain a high-profile growth; At the same time, the CXO industry will also benefit from the transfer of the global industrial chain and continue to grow rapidly. The cdmo business related to covid-19 drugs will also bring greater performance increment to relevant companies.
The agency further analyzed and focused on covid-19 main line and high-quality stocks with reasonable valuation. Covid-19 epidemic is still the biggest main line in the pharmaceutical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the detection, small molecule drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines and other sectors related to the epidemic. In addition, the early correction range of some high-quality stocks is large, and the valuation has been quite attractive. It is suggested to make a positive layout.
[theme 4] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
