Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : Traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods have consumption attributes! Continue to be optimistic about the three logics of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods
The decline in the centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines in Guangdong Province is better than expected. Chinese herbal consumer goods have the consumption attribute, mainly in the off-hospital market, and are immune to medical insurance. They continue to be optimistic about the three logic of Chinese herbal consumer goods: 1) price increase: in recent years, the price of some upstream Chinese herbal medicines has continued to rise, the cost has been transmitted to the downstream, and the price increase of end products is expected to increase the performance. Focus on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , etc. 2) Mixed reform of state-owned enterprises: the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises in the traditional Chinese medicine industry and changes at the shareholder level are accelerated, and the performance is expected to be released. Focus on Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc; 3) Inventory is low: the inventory clearance of some enterprises is coming to an end and entering a new round of distribution cycle.
In addition, they are also optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, exclusive varieties of traditional Chinese medicine base drugs, traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, quality control of traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine medical services, etc. Innovative drugs of traditional Chinese medicine: since 2021, the research and development achievements of innovative drugs of traditional Chinese medicine in China have entered the stage of gradual realization, which is expected to become a new growth point. It is suggested to pay attention to the gradual recovery of ex factory shipments such as Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and the recovery of performance, with emphasis on Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) and so on.
Capital Securities: buy opportunity upon callback reiterated its optimism about covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain
Callback is a buying opportunity, reiterating that we are optimistic about covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain. The global covid-19 epidemic still maintains a high level of more than 1 million new cases every day, and the epidemic prevention and control has a long way to go. Enlightenment from the high-level operation of the global covid-19 epidemic: prevention should take priority over treatment. Covid-19 vaccine has a significant effect on preventing severe diseases and reducing mortality. Covid-19 virus coexists with humans for a long time, and therapeutic drugs are necessary.
Suggestions: first, small molecule specific drugs: reiterate the investment opportunities of small molecule specific drugs throughout the year, and callback is the buying opportunity. It is recommended to pay attention to upstream intermediates, APIs ( Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) (senxuan medicine) and Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) ) and domestic drugs with rapid clinical progress and relatively mature technical route in China ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , developing the pharmaceutical industry).
Second, traditional Chinese medicine: we are more optimistic about high universal varieties with a wider audience, and we suggest paying attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) .
Third, vaccines: we are optimistic about vaccines. We suggest paying attention to the non inactivated technical route, and we suggest paying attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , and Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : focus on the detection, small molecule drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines and other sectors related to the epidemic
The performance of the pharmaceutical industry in the first quarter continued the main line of covid-19 epidemic. We expect that the vaccine and covid-19 testing business will maintain a high-profile growth; At the same time, the CXO industry will also benefit from the transfer of the global industrial chain and continue to grow rapidly. The cdmo business related to covid-19 drugs will also bring greater performance increment to relevant companies.
The 14th five year plan of traditional Chinese medicine was promulgated, and covid-19 epidemic reshaped the cognition of traditional Chinese medicine. The five-year plan for traditional Chinese medicine was issued in the name of the general office of the State Council for the first time. The setting of various indicators fully reflects the grand goal of revitalizing the development of traditional Chinese medicine. The traditional Chinese medicine industry is in a stage of revitalization and development. As a kind of drugs and services with Chinese characteristics, traditional Chinese medicine has always been supported by national policies. Especially since 2021, many national high-level departments such as the State Council and the medical insurance bureau have issued a number of practical policies to encourage the development of traditional Chinese medicine, clarifying the attitude of all national departments to encourage and support the development of traditional Chinese medicine as a traditional Chinese characteristic. At the same time, covid-19 epidemic reshapes the cognition of traditional Chinese medicine, and inheriting and carrying forward traditional Chinese medicine has become the main theme.
Focus on covid-19 main line and high-quality stocks with reasonable valuation. Covid-19 epidemic is still the biggest main line in the pharmaceutical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the detection, small molecule drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines and other sectors related to the epidemic. In addition, the early correction range of some high-quality stocks is large, and the valuation has been quite attractive. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In April, the portfolio consisted of a shares: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Apt Medical Inc(688617) ; H shares: Weigao shares, Jinxin reproduction, kangnoah, xianruida medical.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : it is suggested to pay attention to the double main line of high performance growth and epidemic prevention and control
Continue to be optimistic about the annual report and quarterly report of CXO sector. The CXO sector will continue to receive the centralized disclosure of the annual report / first quarter report in April. The industry is in a high boom, and the sector performance and orders continue to improve. It is expected that the market sentiment will further pick up, and the valuation has room for further improvement and repair.
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream API sector of the industrial chain and the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain: ① the dual path growth of industrial upgrading (cdmo) + industrial extension of the API sector is expected to continue to improve the profitability of the API sector in 2022. ② We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials, especially the upstream supply chain for short-term epidemic prevention and control.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is suggested to focus on the double main lines of high performance growth and epidemic prevention and control. Epidemic prevention and control mainly includes detection and killing, vaccines and specific drugs and their R & D industrial chain, upstream supply chain, etc., with emphasis on vaccines, specific drugs (domestic and foreign) and their R & D industrial chain and the direction of traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) : focus on covid-19 related industrial chain and companies with deterministic growth in the first quarter
Focus on covid-19 related industrial chains and companies with deterministic growth in the first quarter. China’s epidemic prevention and control will still be the focus of market attention and investment is relatively active. We suggest focusing on the research and development progress of domestic covid-19 drugs and companies related to covid-19 detection industrial chain. Affected by the epidemic, the post epidemic construction is worth considering. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the progress of new medical infrastructure, which is expected to increase the supply of high-quality medical resources and become the core driver of the industry. In addition, the results of the first quarter will be announced one after another. The epidemic may interfere with the performance of relevant companies. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with deterministic growth in the first quarter. Vaccine and CXO related industrial chains are still sectors with high growth, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : optimistic about the long-term development potential of traditional Chinese medicine companies under the normalization of centralized mining it is suggested to select the target from five dimensions
On the whole, the price reduction of traditional Chinese medicine in Guangdong Province will be relatively mild, which is in line with expectations. It has long-term growth logic under the aging population and consumption upgrading. We are optimistic about the long-term development potential of traditional Chinese medicine companies under the normalization of centralized mining, and suggest selecting the target from five dimensions: ① leading enterprises with strong moat and high product brand barriers, such as Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) and other enterprises; ② The sustainability of performance growth matches the Valuation: benefiting from the large amount of China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Chinese traditional medicine (H), Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) ; The main products are Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , which have pricing power and superimposed price increase logic; ③ Management improvement logic: it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , etc; ④ Incremental logic of innovative traditional Chinese medicine: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) ; ⑤ TCM service providers: it is suggested to pay attention to gushengtang, the leader of new TCM diagnosis and treatment, and continue to promote the national layout of Omo mode, paying attention to Zhejiang Zhenyuan Share Co.Ltd(000705) .
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : outstanding comparative advantages over other industries it is suggested to actively allocate the pharmaceutical sector
Covid-19 vaccine and drug R & D progress frequently. Looking forward to the future, the impact of covid-19 epidemic is expected to be reduced marginally. The main investment line of medicine will gradually return to the “non covid-19” main business of enterprises, and the recovery opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector will gradually appear: consumption of medical treatment and related targets of the industrial chain, such as elective surgery, optional consumption, etc., such as Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , etc.
The essence of the fluctuation of medicine is the superposition product of macroeconomic cycle and industrial policy. At present, from the perspective of short cycle, the pharmaceutical sector has just entered the investment clock that is expected to obtain excess returns. Under the demand of epidemic prevention, the government is increasing investment in the pharmaceutical sector, the pharmaceutical revenue is expected to increase, and the economic cycle is in a downward cycle. We believe that after continuous adjustment, the pharmaceutical sector now ushers in a good opportunity to buy. The bottom of valuation, position and policy have been realized, and the pharmaceutical performance is highly sustainable. Compared with other industries, it has outstanding comparative advantages. It is recommended to actively allocate the pharmaceutical sector.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) : a leading global preclinical cro enterprise with outstanding industry status Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) : steady growth of business, continuous improvement of industrial chain status and cost-effective valuation Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) : leading medical device enterprise with outstanding R & D and sales capacity and reasonable valuation Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) : HPV vaccine and IVD double wheel drive companies have a high growth Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) : marginal improvement in fundamentals, gradual release of pressure on centralized purchase in pharmaceutical sector, new innovative drug products in pipeline, rapid growth in industrial microbiology sector and medical beauty sector, driving performance.
Dongguan Securities: approaching the peak of financial report disclosure focus on medical segments and targets whose performance is expected to exceed expectations
Recently, the epidemic situation in China has spread in many places, and the epidemic prevention and control is in a critical period. We should pay attention to the relevant beneficiaries. Close to the peak of financial disclosure, pay attention to the segments and targets whose performance is expected to exceed expectations. CXO companies Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Kyushu pharmaceutical, Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , etc., which can be paid attention to and whose performance is expected to exceed expectations; Enterprises related to covid-19 antigen detection reagent Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Asahi biology, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc., which are expected to benefit from the rising demand; Focus on vaccine enterprises Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc. with strong R & D ability and non covid-19 products are expected to achieve rapid growth. Medical device leader Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , medical beauty leader Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , OK mirror leader Autek China Inc(300595) , ophthalmic device leader Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , etc. with relatively reasonable valuation; In the medium term, it is expected to benefit from the aging and strong endogenous growth momentum of chain medical leaders Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ; Brand Chinese Medicine Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc., whose valuation has declined and whose performance is expected to improve.
