disturbance factor of spring Market
Moderator: this week, the market situation changed suddenly, growth stocks continued to fluctuate, and value stocks rose against the trend. Before boating, it was said that large and small wheels move. When is it the turn of "small"?
boating: don\'t worry, the big and small wheels don\'t move so fast to the "small". There are two reasons. First, when PPI declined and CPI gradually formed a convergence trend in history, value stocks have a high probability of outperforming growth stocks. At present, we are in such an environment. Second, what is the most effective means to stabilize growth? Double carbon and manufacturing are indeed important, but the short-term base is small, which is limited to driving GDP. We also need infrastructure, investment and financing support for new and old infrastructure and real estate.
host: can this real estate increase investment?
boating: the real estate I'm talking about here refers to affordable housing. In the past, the growth rate of investment in commercial real estate will be negative this year. This lack needs to be supplemented by new and old infrastructure. Therefore, in such a big context, those related to new and old infrastructure are basically value stocks or subject stocks with small and medium market capitalization, which are mainly digital economy, cloud computing, etc. In fact, the former broke away from the previous playing method of pure building materials, and added similar smart cities, pipelines, urban planning and design, decoration, etc., but after looking around, they basically belong to small and medium-sized market values. This also shows that funds dare not enter on a large scale in the short term.
host: why? In history, there are good prices in high probability spring.
boating: if it doesn\'t rise now, it doesn\'t mean there's no chance in spring. Isn\'t it just the beginning of January? It's mainly the Fed. Since the end of December, I feel a little wrong watching the ten-year bond yield of the United States continue to soar. Sure enough, at the beginning of January, the contents of the December interest rate meeting were announced, and the Fed began to discuss the issue of shrinking the table, and the US bond yield jumped directly to 1.7%. According to the process, the interest rate must be increased before shrinking the table, and the employment data released last week far exceeded market expectations. By mid January, if the U.S. CPI data still has no trend, according to the current data, the interest rate increase will be advanced to the beginning of the second quarter or even the end of the first quarter. This is the only major variable affecting China's stock market at present, because we are "lenient and loose" for the sake of "stability", which is a substantial benefit to the capital market. Finally, I feel that the overall index will continue to maintain structural low volatility after Chinese and foreign hedging. Among them, CSI 300 and SSE 50, which represent value stocks, will be restrained first and then raised, especially the latter. I said at the exchange meeting in October that the 3000-2800 point range is a very good bottom area of the medium and long-term line. From the highest point in early 2021 to this range, the decline is equivalent to 2018, which is a very good starting point for office workers\' long-term fixed investment.
host: you know too much. I'm asking about the spring market.
boating: the market is not in a hurry in spring. There are several times in history, such as 2016 and early 2017. If the global situation is changeable and the disturbance factor increases, the excess of the index in that year comes from the range of decline. In this case, pure short-term trading will not be affected. The lying winning layout is cast according to the standard. Recently, there are more and more voices of the comprehensive registration system. I believe everyone knows what this represents. 20cm practice. Don't look at a loss at that time.
overseas market risk transmission to China
Moderator: last November, Xiao Xiao repeatedly reminded that overseas market risks were transmitted to China, "see brother Mao on the main board and brother Ning on entrepreneurship". Recently, the process of US dollar water collection has been significantly accelerated and the market volatility has begun to increase.
the sea breeze is like rain: in November, we felt that the slope of this round of US dollar interest rate hike was stronger than that of the three-year and ten-round interest rate hikes from 2016 to 2018. The latest meeting minutes showed that in addition to the interest rate hike, the scale reduction was also put on the agenda. As early as 2020, when the global water release "war epidemic", I said that this round of water release is bigger than China's "four trillion" scale, and it is likely to repeat the process from rapid economic recovery to the emergence of high inflation pressure. We began to raise interest rates in October 2010 (the CPI of that month was 4%), and in ten months, we raised interest rates in five rounds and standards in nine rounds. Although there are differences in national conditions, if they really want to control inflation, it is obviously not enough to add three rounds to their 7% inflation data, and the supporting "table reduction" is inevitable. The yield of US bonds is now close to breaking through the high of 1.7% in March 2021. The collapse of blue chips in "core assets" in 2021 is related to its upward trend, but it is now replaced by new energy stocks. The market believes that it is the reason for the track, which is mainly related to the valuation.
host: expensive is the original sin of stocks.
the sea breeze is like rain: those innovative drugs, CXO and biological vaccines have also fallen in all directions. I\'m afraid even brother Mao can\'t survive with a 13% profit growth and a 50 times valuation. Only the real estate chain and big banking are undervalued depressions, which are more suitable for capital hedging, but the new capital in the market is limited, which can only be a situation of rising and falling. Disk observation and driving real estate finance must be a situation of lax popularity, less rise and more fall. As for the market keen to hype yuan universe and traditional Chinese medicine stocks, most of them belong to the attribute of oversold rebound, which is difficult to become the main plate of the market. The main logic of hyping Internet stocks is that there will be great regulatory pressure on the industry in 2021, and the stock price will oversold. It is expected that the regulatory pressure will be significantly reduced in 2022. However, I believe that the positioning of "common prosperity" and "housing, housing and non speculation" is the same as the national policy. The antitrust pressure faced by large-scale science and network stocks will exist for a long time. If Tencent and Ali fail, it is difficult to believe that Internet stocks will become the main line of the market. At present, the weekly line of Shanghai Stock Exchange has been out of the dead fork of KDJ, which is similar to the market characteristics from October to November 2021. It is estimated that there is a high probability of "push ups" around the annual line in the future.
small and medium cap stocks are still the mainstream this year
Moderator: the prediction of several sectors in the scorching sun last week is very accurate. First, talk about digital currency. It will rise and fall after breaking through this week. How can we go next week?
scorching sun: the benefits are too dense, resulting in the plate rising too fast, rushing up and falling back, which is normal. According to the plate index, there are still 6 days of absolute low support for the 10th line in the future, so the overall adjustment is very benign at present. If there is further adjustment next week, there should be better opportunities for low absorption. However, no matter which sector the funds are in, they are divided within the sector. The same is true for digital currency this week. The leading ones with an increase of 20-30% and about 10% are left behind. There is a great probability that they will continue to divide next week. The front row may start to lag behind in stagflation, and the varieties with a solid bottom structure in the back row may keep up.
Moderator: as you said, the Chinese medicine sector fell sharply on Wednesday, giving opportunities for low absorption. There was an anti package meat market on Thursday, but it began to adjust on Friday.
scorching sun: from the sector index, next week will usher in a five week volume deduction high, especially next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday, the pressure begins to drop significantly. When the overall structure is still perfect, it is likely that there will be a low on Tuesday or Wednesday. From the rhythm of individual stocks in the plate, this wave of many varieties accelerate, the market is initially in place, and it will turn into shock. The follow-up opportunities lie in the repeated price difference of strong stocks and the make-up rise of medium and low-level stocks. The taboo is to catch up with the high.
Moderator: for the steel structure plate emphasized before, several core companies have risen sharply in the past two weeks.
scorching sun: stocks labeled with the Winter Olympic Games recently rose significantly. However, we have also analyzed before that the steel structure faucet itself is a prefabricated building faucet, which is not only a green building concept, but also a photovoltaic integrated building concept, which is also a photovoltaic concept. From the perspective of the valuation after the superposition of these three businesses, it is obviously low at present, which only reflects the valuation level of traditional businesses. Therefore, although the short-term core varieties have risen sharply, in the medium and long term, it is only the beginning, not the end, and the market for raising the valuation is still on the way. This is a rare plate with low valuation, high industry growth and sufficient plate superposition momentum.
Moderator: focus on the gem, which has fallen below the annual line. This is the first time since the market started three years ago, and so is the Shenzhen Component Index. Only the Shanghai stock market has weight to protect the market and remains above the annual line. Even the hot demon stock market in recent weeks has the risk of premature death.
scorching sun: from the inducement of decline, it is more likely that the external contraction will appear in March. Internally, the two major tracks of photovoltaic lithium battery broke down. In fact, as we said, it will fall. The overvalued value superimposes the contraction in 2022. How can it hold? If these two plates still have a chance this year, they must fall out again, otherwise there will be only a tough market left. High demon stocks peaked one after another, which must have an impact on popularity, but I think the opportunity for small and medium-sized stocks this year is still the mainstream. In terms of strength, the strength of small and medium-sized stocks at the bottom of superimposed popular themes will be greater. Even if demon stocks continue to die prematurely recently, there will be new things to connect behind.
(source: securities market red weekly)
