In the first week of 2022, with the drastic adjustment of the boom track, the main A-share index fell unilaterally, and the capital performance was slightly hesitant. The rising plate was mainly the valuation repair of the low heat plate, and the market began to worry that the agitation in spring was gone. At the same time, under the background that the consensus expectation of “spring market” failed, some securities companies turned to the repair market of undervalued sectors.
“restless in spring” becomes “cold in spring”?
In 2022, the stock market did not get off to a good start, but fell continuously. Among them, the growth stock sector retreated greatly.
Regarding this, the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team said that the centralized adjustment of the warehouse at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut and low” across the years, which is the main reason for the recent market adjustment.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the consensus expectation shows that the profit growth of the high-level sector with heavy institutional positions last year and contributing to the main revenue has decreased significantly this year, and the overall configuration cost performance and attractiveness are decreasing. Since mid January, the performance forecast of the annual report will enter the intensive disclosure period. The market’s early expectations for the track plate represented by photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are generally too high. Under the background of the intensification of the game between the upstream, middle and downstream of the current industrial chain, the possibility of performance exceeding expectations is very small, while the traditional low weight plate is at the double bottom of valuation and fundamental expectations, Benefiting from the expectation of stable growth policy, the upward revision is more flexible.
However, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that referring to historical experience, the decline in the beginning of the year had little impact on the spring market over the years.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) the strategy team reviewed the historical data of the past 20 years. Taking the Shanghai stock index as an example, the market fell at the beginning of 2002-2003, 2010-2012, 2014, 2016 and 2019, but this decline has little to do with the annual market, and there is a spring Market in the first quarter after the decline. Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the current market is similar to that in 2012 and early 2019. The market decline stems from differences on the strength of steady growth policies, but it is expected that this concern will eventually dissipate.
However, some securities companies believe that this year’s “spring agitation” may be absent. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) the strategy team said that the “winter agitation” market launched earlier in 2021 overdrawn the enthusiasm of the market. With the fulfillment of various policies in December, the short-term market action slowed down further. Therefore, the cross-year market is difficult to continue, and the market began to enter the “calm period” after agitation.
rebound or around the Spring Festival
Cinda securities strategy team said that from the historical law, if it is an earlier year of the Spring Festival, the market is often weak before the Spring Festival and stronger after the Spring Festival, and the high point of fund issuance appears after the Spring Festival. If it is a year later than the Spring Festival, it is often stronger before the festival than after the festival (except 2015), and the high point of fund issuance appears earlier. If this law holds, it means that tactically, if you expect a strong rebound, the probability will wait after the Spring Festival.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) the strategy team also said that after the rebalancing of the group sector, with the continuous disclosure of the annual report forecast and the improvement of liquidity expectations, the rebound market will gradually start around the Spring Festival.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) metalworking team said that, judging from the macro events and price volume outside China, the market is now adjusting or coming to an end. However, it is still necessary to wait for the shrinkage of the transaction volume to confirm. It is estimated that the two cities will be at the bottom of relative safety when the transaction volume is less than 900 billion yuan.
the key is to optimize the position
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) the strategy team said that with the substantial leap of economic transformation, A-Shares began to enter the “slow bull of equity”, that is, the “slow bull” of Shanghai stock index, but the “structural bull market” was normalized. In this context, the main factor determining the yield is not the position, but the structural choice.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that looking back on the fund yield in 2021, although the market volatility increased in March 2021, the key to determining the annual yield is not the position in March, but the structural choice from April to July 2021, whether to choose new energy or semiconductor or “Mao plate”.
In terms of optimizing the specific allocation of positions, a number of securities companies recently stressed the main line of undervaluation and stable growth.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the High-level Track collapsed and reappeared, and steady growth is the main line for at least the first quarter, and the market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened: on the one hand, the annual report pre disclosure is gradual, the performance of high-level track is difficult to exceed expectations, the performance of low-level sector is difficult to be lower than expectations, and the configuration cost performance changes one after another, The substantial position adjustment effect of the organization at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut low”; On the other hand, infrastructure first and real estate later. The steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force. The relevant main lines have strong sustainability. The first quarter is still the best participation window for the blue chip market in the whole year.
The China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) strategy team said that with the recent acceleration of industry and style rotation, the willingness of institutions to balance the position structure has increased significantly. The undervalued sectors represented by financial real estate have top-down logical support and are also “places with few people”, which is expected to become the direction of phased position increase in the market, so as to usher in the repair market
(source: Shanghai Securities News)
