Since the new year, hundreds of A-share listed companies have announced the annual report forecast, which also indicates the official opening of the 2021 annual report market. From the perspective of the median change in the forecast net profit, 85% of the enterprises that took the lead in announcing the performance forecast realized profits, and there were many enterprises that turned losses among the top listed companies in the forecast increase.
the first batch of performance “pre increase king” in 2021: chemical stocks take the lead
The “vanguard forces” of these annual report results are threatening. Some Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) whose net profit soared by 70 times directly increased the limit the next day after the announcement of the notice, and some power companies with a market value of nearly 5 billion “thunder” have a loss of 2 billion in advance. Their “final results” in 2021 are faithfully reflected in the stock market after the new year.
The first batch of “pre added kings” mostly come from the chemical industry and lithium battery industry of new energy vehicles. Behind this “report card”, the changes in commodity prices and energy transformation that once stirred the wind and cloud in 2021 can not be underestimated for the impact on the annual report performance of Listed Companies in 2021.
the Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) of “outbreak of small universe” and the current “pre loss king” Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396)
At present, the chemical industry stock Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) is the largest increase in net profit in 2021.
Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) is the leader of China’s natural alkali process and a typical cyclical stock. After hours on January 5, it announced that it is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 4.85 billion-5.05 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7022.3% – 7316%. The reason is that during the reporting period, the company’s soda ash and urea production units operated efficiently, the average sales price of leading products increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the contribution of coal sector to the company’s profit increased greatly compared with the previous year.
Based on its net profit of 825 million yuan in the third quarter, its net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be 2.77 billion yuan – 2.97 billion yuan, and the month on month growth data is also satisfactory, reaching 235% – 260%.
According to the financial data of the first three quarters, Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) the net profit in 2021 showed a relatively constant high growth trend. In this process, the prices of its main soda ash and soda ash urea rose all the way until the fourth quarter of 2021, and the trend curve also fitted well with the bulk commodity price index in 2021.
in 2021, the main line of “price rise” of bulk commodities made the stock prices of various cyclical stocks in metal, energy and chemical sectors rise steadily. The improvement of valuation and the rise of share price will eventually be realized in the annual report.
In addition to Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Jiangsu Yida Chemical Co.Ltd(300721) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) also belong to the chemical sector. The outstanding performance of the chemical sector was mainly due to the implementation of loose fiscal and monetary policies during the economic recovery of various countries, the superposition of the enhanced global competitive advantage of China’s manufacturing industry, and then the mismatch between supply and demand caused by dual control of energy consumption. The prices of main products of some companies in the chemical industry continued to be high, resulting in a significant increase in the company’s performance.
At the same time, for 2022, the agency also said that the price of the chemical sector needs time to adjust and digest, the marginal change of demand is relatively limited, and the price of some cyclical products has downward pressure. For the layout at the current time point, it is appropriate to consider the subdivided fields with barriers and growth. In the new era of sustainable development, there are two directions with high certainty: new materials for service and sustainable development and the advantages of light hydrocarbon chemical industry under the main line of “double carbon”.
contrary to the booming basic chemical enterprises, they are not so “lucky” in the price rise of 2021 cycle products.
The current “king of pre loss” in 2021 is Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) with a market value of less than 5 billion, but a sudden loss of nearly 2 billion in 2021 net profit. The reason continues the loss in the interim report season. Reason: affected by external factors, the company’s coal price increased significantly year-on-year during the reporting period, and the company’s power generation and heating costs are upside down .
profits are also eroded by the rise in coal prices Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) . The loss range of is slightly narrower than that of Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) of Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) , which gives a similar reason, but the figures are more detailed: the coal price rose sharply and reached an all-time high in 2021, resulting in a general loss for the coal-fired power plants of Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) . Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) the annual cumulative unit price of coal converted into standard coal is about 1097 yuan / ton (excluding tax), an increase of 442 yuan / ton (excluding tax) compared with last year, with a year-on-year increase of 67%, increasing the company’s annual fuel cost by about 5.3 billion yuan.
The trend change of coal price in 2021 can be seen from the “Carnival” of power coal futures. The mismatch between supply and demand and the rise in coal prices caused by low inventory have raised the power generation cost of thermal power plants. Under extremely high coal prices, coal-fired power units across the country generally entered a state of cash flow loss in late September, and power rationing frequently detonated public opinion at the end of September.
In the fourth quarter, policies related to coal price and electricity price have been issued one after another, and the coal electricity price mechanism has been reformed. The coal electricity price will no longer fall unilaterally, and the floating space will be expanded to 20%. On December 10, the central economic conference also proposed that based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy to promote the coordinated development of coal power and new energy.
The agency believes that at present, the coal price range of 2022 is determined, and power enterprises are required to cover 100%. On the premise that the electricity price can rise by 20%, the profits of coal and power enterprises can be guaranteed. At the same time, the coal power linkage may be restarted, and the profit of thermal power will tend to be stable under the smooth transmission mechanism.
Entering the new year, the “spring agitation” market has been opened in time. The agency believes that valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of spring agitation . according to the law of previous years, the layout of pre increased shares for performance is often one of the highlights of the capital market in January . The agency said that the opportunities in January of outweighed the risks, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy formed a resonance. Under the allocation idea of high prosperity + oversold marginal improvement, investors can still bargain hunting layout .
(source: financial Associated Press)
