Recently, the price has been sharply reduced. According to the research report, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) lowered the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) target price from 3000 yuan / share to 2246 yuan / share, a decrease of 25%.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned in the research report, “since mid March, the off-season wholesale price of Feitian Maotai has dropped, mainly due to the increase in the probability of global economic crisis due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the intensification of the epidemic in China’s first tier cities, resulting in a decline in short-term demand.”
It is reported that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) gave a target price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 3000 yuan / share in February 2021. The data show that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) will maintain this target price until August 1, 2021.
It should be noted that after Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) gave a target price of 3000 yuan / share, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price soared to 262788 yuan / share on February 18, 2021, and then fluctuated downward. It once fell to around 1500 yuan in August 2021. In 2022, its share price rarely exceeded 2000 yuan. As of the closing on April 13, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) reported 1769 yuan / share, down 13.71% since the beginning of the year.
However, despite lowering the target price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) still gives a “buy” rating Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that with Maotai’s 1935 and I Maotai app’s launch, the company’s channel and product structure were more balanced, the medium and long-term volume and price strategy was flexible, the performance was highly deterministic and there were opportunities beyond expectations.
Compared with Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) strongly recommends Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , and the target price is as high as 2800 yuan. According to the data, on January 19, 2022, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) gave the target price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2400 yuan / share, and then raised it to 2800 yuan / share on February 23, 2022, which has been maintained until now.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out in its recent report that the concentrated release of multiple negative factors since the beginning of the year has led to the continuous correction of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price, and PEG (price earnings ratio relative to profit growth ratio) has been adjusted back to about 2x from 4-5x in the previous two years. However, after the change of management, the company has entered a new cycle of development and its competitive advantage has been continuously strengthened. If the subsequent marketing reform is successful, it is possible to further increase the growth center in the next two years. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term return of the wine series to the market.
Although the two securities companies have different opinions, their stock speculation ability is almost the same. Zhongxin Jingwei noted that in 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) self operated investment income was 22.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%; The yield of proprietary business was 4.66%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.06 percentage points. Over the same period, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) self operated investment income was 10.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.67%; The yield of proprietary business was 4.91%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage pointsP align = “center” as of April 13, 2022, the top 10 securities companies in terms of proprietary investment income in 2021.
In fact, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) slightly raised Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) target price recently. The current target price is 235488 yuan / share and 224775 yuan / share, giving a “buy” rating China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) gives the rating of “prudent overweight” in the recent research report. However, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) at the same time, it also said that with the joint efforts of product structure upgrading, marketing system optimization and guaranteed volume increase, Maotai is expected to start into a new stage of accelerated development in 2022.
The data shows that for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , the target price given by most institutions is 234678 yuan / share, of which the maximum value is 2800 yuan / share and the minimum value is 188560 yuan / share.
It should be noted that on March 31, 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the annual report of 2021, and the revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, but the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was the lowest in recent five years.
According to the data, in 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) achieved an operating revenue of 106190 billion yuan, an increase of 11.88% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. From 2017 to 2020, the growth rate of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) attributable net profit reached 61.97%, 30.00%, 17.05% and 13.33% respectively.
Baijiu expert Cai Cai flew to China and New Zealand Jingwei said that in the current Baijiu high-end market growth slowed down, the economic environment uncertainty factors increased, the stock market for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other head wine enterprises value judgment has great differences, this also shows that the related pressure has been transmitted to the capital level.
