The sharp position adjustment of institutions at the beginning of the year accelerated the "high cut low", and the High-level Track collapsed and reappeared. The stable growth is the main line for the first quarter at least. The market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market will be delayed in the first half of the year, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. On the one hand, the pre disclosure of the annual report is gradual, the performance of the high track is difficult to exceed expectations, the performance of the low plate is difficult to be lower than expectations, and the configuration cost performance changes one after another. The substantial position adjustment effect of the organization at the beginning of the year accelerated the "high cut low", and the sudden collapse and reappearance of the high track is the main reason for the market adjustment in the beginning of the year. On the other hand, infrastructure first and real estate later, the steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force, and the relevant main lines have strong sustainability. It is expected that the economic data disclosure in the fourth quarter of 2021 will confirm the bottom recovery trend of the economy, and there is sufficient guarantee for stabilizing the economy and the market; In addition, the impact of peripheral liquidity expectations on the market is gradually weakening. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed. The first quarter is still the best participation window for the blue chip market in the whole year. The short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. It is suggested to continue to focus on the "three low positions".
at the beginning of the year, the organization significantly adjusted its positions, accelerating the "high cut low"
high track collapse reproduction
1) at the beginning of the year, the centralized adjustment of the warehouse accelerated the "high cut and low" across the years, which is the main reason for the market adjustment. the configuration cost performance of High-level Track and low-level plate changes one after another. The acceleration of "high cut low" trading under the intensive position adjustment of institutions is the main reason for the market adjustment at the beginning of the year. First of all, the consensus expectation shows that the profit growth of the high-level sectors with heavy institutional positions and contributing to the main revenue last year has decreased significantly this year, and the overall configuration cost performance and attractiveness have decreased. With the cohesion of policy consensus and the expected repair of fundamentals, the peg of the sector with relatively low valuation and economic recovery is down, and the allocation cost performance is higher. Secondly, since mid January, the annual report performance forecast will enter an intensive disclosure period. The early expectations of the track plate represented by photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are generally too high. Under the background of the intensification of the game between the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain, the possibility of performance exceeding expectations is very small, while the traditional low weight plate is at the double bottom of valuation and fundamental expectations, The expected upward revision benefiting from the steady growth policy is more flexible.
2) the sudden collapse reappeared, and the funds in the low-level plate were more abundant, "high cut low" was still in the midfield. the new year's "high cut low" market is similar to the collapse of "core assets" after the Spring Festival in 2021. Before the adjustment, it shows a series of characteristics, such as crowded institutional positions, historical high valuation quantile, strong short-term game, etc. The main reason for the collapse of High-level Track stocks in this round is that the expectation of steady growth is gradually strengthened, and the funds begin to quickly transfer to low-level blue chip positions. Taking "Ning portfolio" as an example, the index reached a phased high in mid November, with a maximum one-day turnover of about 90 billion yuan. With the downward shock in December and the rapid adjustment since the beginning of the year, the index fell by more than 17% compared with the high point, and the turnover shrank to more than 40 billion yuan. We believe that this round of A-share "high cut low" trading is still in the middle. With the strengthening of stable growth expectations and more abundant funds in the low-level sector, the A-share market will continue to spread to the low-level blue chip market.
3) the new issuance of public offering products in the new year was weaker than expected, and the redemption of stock products increased. first, the new heat of public offering products in the first week of the year was weaker than expected. According to China Securities Network, the issuance of many star fund products this week was cold, and the funds raised by new development funds in a single day were generally less than 1 billion yuan. We think there are two main reasons. One is that many products are planned to be issued centrally before the Spring Festival, which diverts funds from single products; Second, the continuous adjustment of the institutional heavy position sector over the next year has reduced its purchase intention. Institutional products with heavy positions and high-level tracks generally face net value withdrawal, and absolute income products also began to stop losses, aggravating market fluctuations. Our Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channel survey data show that the redemption pressure of stock products has increased since the beginning of the year. The net redemption rate in the first week of 2022 is about 7%, which is a historically high level. In the future, with the stabilization and recovery of the market, it is expected that the product subscription will gradually pick up.
infrastructure first, real estate later, steady growth
will be at least the continuous main line in the first quarter
1) infrastructure first, real estate later, and the relay of steady growth policies form a joint force, with strong sustainability of relevant main lines. in terms of infrastructure, in 2021, the public finance exceeded revenue and the issuance of special bonds was delayed. It is estimated that about 1.4 trillion capital effect will be carried forward to 2022. In addition, the financial department issued an advance approval of local special bonds of 1.46 trillion years ago, which is expected to drive the growth of infrastructure investment in the beginning of the year. Considering that the growth rate of full caliber infrastructure financial capital expenditure is 3-6 months ahead of the growth rate of infrastructure, it is expected that the infrastructure investment is expected to increase by about 7% in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of real estate, the policy will "implement policies according to the city" to better meet the reasonable demand for house purchase, and the mortgage loan will be accelerated at the beginning of the year. According to the judgment of the real estate team of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, the growth rate of real estate sales is expected to have an inflection point in March 2022. On the premise that the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises are supported, the inflection point of Jian\'an investment is expected to appear in the middle of the year.
2) it is expected that the physical data disclosure in the fourth quarter of 2021 will clarify the economic bottom recovery trend. on the one hand, the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department believes that the growth rate of industrial added value in December is expected to continue to pick up under the influence of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price", leading production and operation of manufacturing industry and catching up at the end of the year; Manufacturing investment remains high and infrastructure investment stabilizes. In December, China's manufacturing investment is expected to continue the growth trend of more than 7% in a single month, and the annual growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to reach 5.1%; The improvement of automobile sales has pushed the overall consumption data to pick up moderately. It is expected that the nominal growth rate of consumption in December will be 4.7%, and the moderate recovery trend will continue in the future; Under the background of strong overseas consumer spending demand and slow recovery of global supply chain, exports can still maintain strong growth. It is expected that the single month year-on-year growth rate of exports in December will reach 21%, which is basically the same as that in November. On the other hand, the lack of monetary advance alone is not enough to condense policy consensus. The key depends on the strength of credit repair to support demand. At present, the financial system focuses on stabilizing credit, the real estate chain has basically crossed the financial bottom, and at present, the financing of residential mortgages and real estate enterprises has gradually warmed up. The central bank has strengthened its guidance on the bank credit window. It is expected that the new credit will exceed 4 trillion yuan in January 2022, which is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan, and the new social finance is expected to exceed expectations, which has become the most important catalyst for policy consensus.
3) the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve has gradually weakened the impact on a shares. the discussion on shrinking the table began after the first interest rate increase in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December disclosed on January 6, indicating that the pace of normalization of U.S. policy interest rates may be faster, pushing the expected interest rate increase in March and may to 68% and 80%.
Even if the Fed's current round of interest rate increase and table contraction come earlier, the actual impact on A-Shares is also very limited. In 2022, China's market environment of "low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation" is still significantly better than the combination of "high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation" in European and American developed markets. On the premise that the economic fundamentals are better than those in European and American developed countries and the stock market valuation is relatively safe, the long-term trend of foreign capital's additional A shares will not change, According to the minutes of the meeting, the northward capital still had a progressive net inflow of 6.2 billion yuan in the week, including 2.4 billion yuan of allocation capital. Affected by the partial Eagle minutes and employment data, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 1.76% on January 7, and the interest margin between China and the United States narrowed to 106bp, which is already a very low level in history since the outbreak. The low interest rate difference between China and the United States may restrict the space for China to cut interest rates at the beginning of the year, but it is expected that China's monetary policy will still be "dominated by me", the trend of reasonable and loose macro liquidity will not change, and the recent strong performance of RMB also provides more sufficient operating space for China's policy. According to the prediction of the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, the first half of 2022 is still the window period for interest rate reduction. It is expected that the short, medium and long-term financing interest rates will be reduced, and the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate, 1-year MLF interest rate, 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rate will be reduced by 5 BP.
collapse reappears, and steady growth will be the main line
1) the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. on the one hand, the issuance of public offering products in the beginning of the year was weaker than expected, the redemption of stock products increased, and the intensive position adjustment of institutions led to the acceleration of "high cut low" and the sudden collapse of the high-level track. On the other hand, the steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force. Superimposed on the disclosure of real economy data in the fourth quarter, there is sufficient guarantee for stabilizing the economy and market, the main line of infrastructure and real estate is still sustainable, the market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point.
2) continue the firm layout around the "three low positions". In terms of industry configuration, we continue to recommend "three lows", specifically including: varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be still low, and focus on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle , lithium battery cell , photovoltaic equipment ; In addition, some of the consumer industries represented by Baijiu in the fourth quarter of 2021 have already fulfilled the larger value fixing. It is suggested that the free tax and entertainment content consumption expected to remain low in the first quarter of this year are recommended. For the varieties whose valuations are still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers , building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact of China stock market, and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment , special chip devices and military industry promoted by localization logic.
risk factors
The global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccination is not as expected; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China's economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened more than expected.
(source: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research)
