The new energy industry chain fell sharply for a week, while the real estate industry chain continued the rising trend after the central bank lowered the reserve requirement in December 2021. In the first trading week of 2022, A-Shares continued the structural market of “ice and fire”, and “mean return” and “valuation repair” may continue to dominate the cross-year market trend.
According to the senior insiders interviewed by the first financial reporter, there is still room for the rebound of the real estate industry chain, and the style transformation of “cross year market” will continue. Next, financial stocks may continue to make up for the rise. In addition, although the high-low switching of the market has begun, the public funds have not significantly adjusted their positions to the undervalued sector.
At the end of March 2021, after the index adjustment is basically completed, A-Shares have obvious structural style characteristics in each quarter, such as the new energy vehicle industry chain in the second quarter and the emerging cyclical stocks in the third quarter. By December, the new energy industry chain peaked periodically, while the real estate industry chain swept away the decline of nearly a year and took over the rising market.
“The short-term real estate industry chain can continue to hold shares”, a private placement person in Shenzhen who switched from new energy to the real estate industry chain in November told the first financial reporter that there have been various measures to support the bottom of “steady growth” since December, but the improvement of orders of relevant enterprises before and after the Spring Festival has not been realized immediately. It is expected that the rise of the sector may continue until March, At that time, there may be relevant benefits for the realization of fundamentals.
“The joint rise of Finance and real estate can still continue,” Hu Yu, partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo asset management company, told the first financial reporter that in the second half of 2021, the real estate sector had the opportunity to take advantage of the low absorption after the policy overshoot. At that time, the mainstream of the market gradually formed a consensus – the real estate industry has become a thing of the past and the afterglow of the sunset, Real estate stocks have become bargains and no one cares; However, “real estate industry” and “real estate stocks” are different concepts. The biggest difference is that real estate stocks are still very cheap, while house prices are not cheap.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, believes that the low debt head real estate enterprises and the relatively stable industrial chain, including the underestimated head enterprises such as home appliances and home decoration, are still relatively large in scale, the short-term industry scale is limited, and the cost performance is very significant in the case of underestimated value. With the bottom of industry sales and the month on month improvement, the pressure on raw materials returns to normal, Profitability continues to rise, and it is inevitable that the extremely undervalued P / E valuation will be repaired.
Some market participants believe that the current real estate enterprise risk events continue, the public funds have not significantly adjusted their positions, and the value stocks may be less than expected in the late first quarter.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Dai Kang, a strategic analyst, said that since the beginning of this year, energy, industry, finance, real estate and other value styles have generally led the rise in the stock markets of major economies in the world, mainly due to the resonance repair of the logic of “victory” and “odds”. From the perspective of “odds”, the current A-share value style is dominant. Compared with the “steady growth” value stocks, the relative valuation and fund position of the “steady growth” value stocks are at a high level, and the “winning rate” of the steady growth of the A-share value style is in the “expected improvement”. However, the high probability of this situation is less than expected in the late first quarter. At present, although the public funds are actively adjusting their positions, they have not obviously changed their positions to value stocks.
Golden Eagle Fund believes that the risk events of real estate enterprises continue, and it is still difficult to turn to real estate investment in the short term. Looking forward to 2022, the growth rate of corporate profits is expected to decline, the liquidity will remain neutral and loose, and the overall market will still be dominated by structural market.
(source: First Finance)
