Recently, the shell Research Institute released the report on the second-hand housing market in the first quarter of 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report shows that with the easing of credit and local regulatory policies, the trading volume of second-hand houses increased month on month in the first quarter of the country, the price basically stopped falling, and the bottom of the market was completed. The market showed an unbalanced recovery trend, the recovery in the Yangtze River Delta region was strong, and the expected supply and demand activity of Xi'an second-hand housing market rebounded.
the bottom of the second-hand housing market was completed in the first quarter
According to the report, in the first quarter of 2022, the trading volume of second-hand houses in shell 50 cities increased by about 7% month on month. Among them, it rebounded continuously in February and March, with a month on month growth rate of more than 40% in March, and the trading volume returned to the level of last July. On a year-on-year basis, the trading volume of second-hand houses in the first quarter of 2022 decreased by about 40% compared with the peak in the same period last year and increased by about 70% compared with the same period in 2020. In terms of price, the price index of second-hand houses in 50 cities was the same as that in January, ending the continuous month on month decline since August last year; In March, it fell slightly by 0.1% month on month, and the overall decline stopped and stabilized.
The key factors supporting the market recovery are the sharp interest rate cut of housing credit and the increase of local supporting policies. However, at present, there is an unbalanced recovery trend. From the perspective of quarterly trading volume, about 70% of the 50 cities saw a month on month increase in second-hand housing trading volume in the first quarter. In the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta, except Shanghai, which was affected by the epidemic, most cities generally saw a month on month increase, including Shaoxing, Ningbo, Hefei Nantong and other cities grew by more than 40% quarter on quarter. The quarterly turnover of Chengdu and Chongqing increased by about 20% month on month. Among the urban agglomerations in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Guangzhou and Foshan increased month on month, while the multi ring ratio of cities around Shenzhen decreased. Shenzhen was greatly affected by the epidemic. In terms of urban prices, Beijing and Shanghai maintained a steady rise in the first quarter, and house prices in northern cities such as Changchun, Harbin and Lanzhou in second and third tier cities have not yet stepped out of the decline range.
Xi'an second-hand market repair turnover increased month on month
The report shows that in March 2022, the number of customers and the number of newly listed houses in shell 50 cities increased by more than 30% month on month. In March, the second-hand market in Xi'an showed a recovery trend, and the trading volume of second-hand houses increased month on month, lower than that in the same period of last year. According to the shell data, from February to March 2022, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Xi'an maintained positive growth for two consecutive months. The recovery of some house purchase demand, combined with the influence of low base effect, promoted the high growth of second-hand trading volume month on month. However, under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the market recovery rhythm is unstable.
From a regional perspective, the second-hand trading volume of each urban area increased month on month in March. The month on month growth rate of Baqiao district and Beilin District was higher, followed by Lianhu District and Yanta District, and the month on month growth rate of Gaoling District, Xincheng District, Chang'an District and Weiyang District was also higher. Compared with the same period last year, the absolute trading volume of each district is still low, with a significant year-on-year decline.
The policy release signal of maintaining stability and the improvement of credit environment play a positive role in boosting market confidence, releasing house purchase demand and repairing the second-hand market. In the first quarter, the activity of supply and demand in Xi'an's second-hand market rebounded.
According to the data of shell platform, in March, the number of newly listed houses on Xi'an shell platform increased by 33% month on month, and the number of new customers increased by 37% month on month. However, on the whole, compared with the rapid recovery of the supply side, the recovery of the demand side is obviously weak, and the confidence of home buyers in entering the market is insufficient. Reflected in the market, it is reflected in the sluggish demand. In the future, it is necessary to take precise policy care of the demand.
