Report guide
Recently, the local epidemic in Shanghai has continued, which has increased the demand of residents to prepare goods in advance, highlighting the “preventive attribute” of refrigerator consumption. We believe that this has the following effects on the consumption pattern of refrigerators: 1) release the replacement potential energy of refrigerators; 2) Accelerate the high-end consumption of refrigerators; 3) Break the ceiling of one refrigerator / freezer.
Key investment points
Refrigerator consumption potential energy accumulation, epidemic catalytic potential energy release
1) from 2009 to 2011, the subsidy policy for household appliances was implemented, and the process of refrigerator industry accelerated. From 2009 to 2011, the domestic shipment of refrigerators increased from 39.3 million units to 58.99 million units. Considering the safe service life of refrigerators, a large number of potential demand for refrigerator replacement has been accumulated since 2019. 2) Recently, the epidemic in Shanghai has continued, residents’ willingness to hoard goods has strengthened, and there has been a significant increase in Internet discussions on the purchase of freezers and refrigerators. We believe that the potential energy of refrigerator replacement is expected to be catalyzed by local epidemic and residents’ willingness to reserve.
Household refrigeration trend: speed up the replacement of high-performance refrigerators + increase the number of freezers 1) the trend of refrigerator upgrading is expected to speed up through the epidemic. In terms of the number of refrigerator doors, the share of online and offline retail sales of multi door and double door refrigerators increased by 2.7 PCT and 1.6 PCT respectively year-on-year during 22w1-12. In terms of volume, the share of online and offline retail sales of 500L + high-capacity refrigerators increased by 6.4 PCT and 6.7 PCT respectively year-on-year.
We believe that the epidemic can catalyze the demand of residents for large volume, small land occupation and high-performance refrigerators. 2) Out of the awareness of preparedness for the uncertainty of future epidemic, we believe that the retention level of refrigerators, the ceiling of one machine per household is expected to be broken, and the allocation rate of refrigerators / freezers is expected to be improved. The sales volume of 22w15 freezer online and offline was + 31.71% and + 12.25% year-on-year. Residents pay more attention to the freezer configuration, and the search frequency of the keyword “freezer” in Baidu has increased sharply.
Investment advice
On the whole, we believe that the continuous local epidemic and residents’ consumption psychology of hoarding goods in advance have the following effects on the refrigerator market: 1) release the replacement potential energy of refrigerators; 2) Accelerate the high-end consumption of refrigerators; 3) Break the ceiling of one refrigerator / freezer. Therefore, we believe that refrigerator manufacturers with excellent product performance and outstanding brand strength will benefit, and white electricity enterprises with large proportion of refrigerator domestic sales revenue are more flexible. We recommend Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) .
Risk tips
Replacement or configuration requirements are less than expected; The consumption level of residents has declined
