[daily review] where is the next opportunity in the market before the ebb tide of the old main line and the new cycle?

After the market opened low all day, it rushed up and fell back, and the gem led the decline again. On the disk, the logistics sector strengthened, and many stocks such as Beijing Changjiu Logistics Corp(603569) rose by the limit. Cyclical sectors such as coal strengthened, Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) limit. In terms of decline, infrastructure and digital economy related sectors fell into adjustment. The number of individual stocks that fell by the limit in the late trading increased significantly, and many stocks in the infrastructure and real estate sectors fell by the limit. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3700 stocks in the two cities fell. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 873.4 billion, down 43.1 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, logistics, coal, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas exploitation and other sectors led the rise, while digital currency, prefabricated buildings, cloud games, tourism and other sectors led the decline.

sector

The warehousing and logistics sector was among the top gainers again, and individual stocks rose again. The recent continuous strength of the warehousing and logistics sector was directly stimulated by the news. At the weekend, the national unified market document pointed out that we should “build a modern circulation network and help smooth circulation”; The day before yesterday, the five departments issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of cold chain logistics and transportation, which further focused the logistics industry on the market. According to the analysis of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , the essence of building a unified market is still the extension of supply side structural reform. For the logistics industry, it means the further expansion of market space and the reduction of operating costs. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2020, the total logistics cost of the whole society accounted for 14.7% of GDP, almost twice that of the United States and Japan, so there is much room for cost reduction and efficiency increase. In addition, the opinion points out that “support the construction of digital third-party logistics delivery platform”, and the digital empowerment will help logistics enterprises become supply chain enterprises with global influence.

From the technical point of view, the large-scale rise in the storage and logistics sector for two consecutive days can be regarded as evidence of the massive inflow of funds. However, as the medium-term trend has just reversed, there is still a lot of hold up selling pressure to be digested. It can be seen that in the late trading stage, the overall sector has dropped, while the trading limit of leading stock Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.Ltd(300013) has been tilted, and the expectation of sorting out differences tomorrow has intensified. According to past experience, if a sector wants to get out of continuity, it can often be verified by whether the funds can return quickly after experiencing short-term differences. Then, when the warehouse enters the short-term consolidation, the strength of capital return is the focus of follow-up attention.

On the other hand, the real estate sector continued to ebb, among which Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Everbright Jiabao Co.Ltd(600622) , Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) and other high popularity standards have stepped out of the a-kill. Although the short-term return of funds in the afternoon and the rise of Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) against the trend give the real estate sector a glimmer of hope, it is still a high probability event for the whole sector to continue the correction and consolidation before the internal loss effect of the sector is eliminated. Even if some stocks will have repeated opportunities, the operation difficulty will be further increased. From a safe point of view, we will consider re entering the real estate sector when there is a clear signal of correction and stability.

The infrastructure sector also experienced a large-scale ebb. The sky floor was staged at the end of Qianjing Forest Park, Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) , Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) and other popular stocks fell by the limit. The situation of the infrastructure sector is similar to that of the real estate. Although the logic of the rise in the medium term has not changed, after the rapid rise in the short term, funds began to be afraid of heights, and there is a high probability of subsequent phased consolidation.

individual shares

From the perspective of large cycle, the market is still in the ebb stage of Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) cycle. Today Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) these high-level leaders fell again, and the money loss effect has not been solved. In this case, it is difficult to launch a new round of large cycle. It can be compared with the current Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) cycle. After the ebb tide of the previous Cuiwei cycle, the cycle transition is gradually completed when Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) withstands the money loss effect. Therefore, for some high popularity standards in the early stage, a representative stock that can achieve stability or maintain the horizontal market needs to appear as soon as possible in the follow-up, and there may be greater opportunities later.

Under the background of collective weakness of covid-19 anti epidemic concept, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) is still closed. It can be seen that Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) has left the anti epidemic sector and stepped out of the independent driven by the performance line. Similar to Shenzhen Bingchuan Network Co.Ltd(300533) , the game board also raised the limit against the trend in the case of overall callback. The positive feedback of the market on the performance line is being carried out from point to surface, among which the typical representative is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Recently, the performance forecast was released. The net profit in the first quarter increased by about 70% year-on-year and 458% – 942% month on month. Driven by it, the brewing sector has gradually shown a trend of shock bottoming in the near future. Today’s rebound of lithium mining stocks also benefited from the good performance of Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . Therefore, in the current chaotic market, the theme of performance superposition is still a good arbitrage direction in the short term.

aftermarket analysis

As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.83%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.6% and the gem index fell 2.25%. The net sales of northbound funds throughout the day were 498 million, of which 389 million were bought by Shanghai Stock connect and 887 million were sold by Shenzhen Stock connect.

Today, the three major stock indexes failed to continue to rebound and callback to the bottom again. As said in yesterday’s review, if the index wants to achieve stability in the short term, it first needs to effectively stand on the 5-day moving average and drive the 5-day line to turn upward. Before that, the pattern of shock and decline will not change. But the better thing is that today’s trading volume has shrunk significantly, showing signs of shrinking sales. Combined with the fact that A-Shares are currently in a low valuation range, the space for further downward exploration is relatively limited. Therefore, from the perspective of capital security, it is safer to keep enough patience and wait for the index to form a clear bottom signal before choosing the time to enter the site.

In terms of sentiment, it rose 849, an increase of 2971 over the previous trading day. Excluding ST shares and unopened new shares, the daily limit was 53, down 43 from the previous trading day; 41 fried boards, an increase of 13 over the previous trading day; Gem / Kechuang board stocks rose by 4, the same as the previous trading day; The limit was 0, the same as the previous trading day.

In terms of sentiment indicators, it once returned to the top of the downturn area today, but the market sentiment decreased significantly in the late trading stage. On the one hand, several stocks in the infrastructure sector fell by the limit, on the other hand, some stocks rose by the limit, which made the sentiment indicators return below the downturn area.

market highlights

1. Build a highland for the development of hydrogen energy industry, and accelerate the cultivation of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production and storage, processing and transportation, fuel cell stack, etc.

The general office of Guangdong provincial government issued the “14th five year plan” for energy development in Guangdong Province on April 13, proposing to build a highland for the development of hydrogen energy industry. Expand the hydrogen energy application market through multiple channels, focus on the research and development of core hydrogen energy technologies and the manufacturing of advanced equipment, and accelerate the cultivation of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen production and storage, processing and transportation, fuel cell stack, key parts and power system integration. Layout of hydrogen production from electrolytic water, hydrogen production from natural gas, and equipment manufacturing of industrial by-product hydrogen purification. Promote the manufacturing of high-density hydrogen storage equipment, strengthen the construction of high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage in the short term, and lay out the industries of low-temperature liquid hydrogen and low-pressure solid hydrogen storage in the long term.

2. Ministry of industry and information technology: it will support qualified industrial Internet enterprises to IPO and list

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the 2022 work plan of the industrial Internet special working group. In terms of broadening the sources of funds, the key work includes improving the level of financial services: supporting qualified industrial Internet enterprises to make initial public offerings and list, listing at the basic level and innovation level of the national share transfer system, and refinancing through additional issuance, allotment of shares, convertible bonds and other means; Support qualified enterprises to issue corporate credit bonds and asset-backed securities for financing; Expand financing channels for industrial enterprises and Internet manufacturing enterprises; Encourage industrial Internet enterprises to finance through intellectual property pledge financing; Guide venture capital enterprises / funds to increase investment in industrial Internet start-ups.

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