Basic conclusion
The epidemic situation in March has led to the lack of hard consumption scenes and Limited Logistics in some cities. From a national perspective, the epidemic prevention and control will be implemented in an orderly manner, and the epidemic is expected to be effectively controlled before the peak consumption season. With the restoration of consumption scenarios, we believe that:
1) service and offline consumption will take the lead in rebounding at the bottom, catering is expected to obtain retaliatory consumption, and hotel, duty-free, business district, offline stores and other consumption are expected to rebound at the bottom; At the same time, the recovery of travel has led to a rebound in the demand for beauty makeup, luggage, sports shoes and clothing.
2) in the "home" life, refrigerators, freezers, small kitchen appliances, home decoration and home textile consumption in household appliances are greatly affected by regional logistics in the early stage, or will increase in a centralized release mode in the second quarter with the smooth flow of logistics.
3) the impact of cosmetics is generally controllable. The epidemic situation is repeatedly concentrated between the "3.8" and "618" promotion. The overall retail performance of Q2 remains to be determined by the sales performance of the 6.18 promotion. It is expected that the overall will be able to make up for the negative impact of the epidemic situation. By category, the impact of skin care is small, and the correlation between makeup and sunscreen and travel is large. Referring to the experience of the epidemic for 20 years, after the epidemic, beauty consumption will quickly recover to a relatively prosperous growth rate.
4) the epidemic of gold and jewelry has a great drag on its short-term retail, but the recovery after the epidemic is uncertain. The first is the enhancement of self pleasing consumption attributes brought about by process upgrading + the wedding just needs to be repaired. The second is the improvement of the profitability of gold jewelry enterprises driven by the rise of international gold prices under the background of tension in Russia and Ukraine.
5) the Baijiu benefit scenario is resumed, and the demand for high-end liquor gifts is rigid. If the commercial activities after the epidemic recover, the demand is expected to pick up. The proportion of sub high-end banquets is higher, and the local wine in Jiangsu and Anhui is slightly affected by the epidemic overflow, which will benefit from the restoration of the scene and the control of the epidemic.
6) beer: the peak season is coming, and the demand rebound is expected to be stronger. In the middle and late April of previous years, the channel began to prepare goods, and the key period of the peak season is from May to August (accounting for 40-45% of the annual sales). Considering the low base of last year, if the epidemic prevention and control is proper this year and the pent up demand is added in the early stage, it is expected to realize a stronger volume increase logic (similar to 20q2). In terms of price, the cost is relatively controllable (the price of barley has been locked in advance), and the improvement of the epidemic situation is a solid guarantee for subsequent price increases, packaging changes and upgrading.
Investment advice
After the outbreak, consumer suggestions are concerned with several main lines: 1, the catering, beer retaliatory consumption brought by consumer scenario repair, the demand for Baijiu (high-end / high-end), and the bottom rebound of service consumption such as wine brigade, tax-free, offline retail (gold jewelry, mother and baby shop) and so on. 2. The demand for beauty makeup, sports shoes and clothing, luggage, stationery, etc. driven by the recovery of travel; 3. Household appliances (refrigerators, freezers, small kitchen appliances), household appliances, home textiles, etc. affected by logistics in the epidemic may increase in a centralized release mode in the second quarter with the smooth flow of logistics.
Recommended targets include jiumaojiu, Chow Tai Fook, Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , China Resources beer, etc.
Risk tips
The risk of a long epidemic duration, the risk of insufficient consumer confidence, and the risk of squeezing online channels for logistics recovery.
