Early this morning, I saw a report in the China Securities Journal that recently, a number of 10 billion private placement companies are negotiating with custodian institutions to reduce the early warning line and stop loss line of some products.
The person in charge of a 10 billion private placement disclosed that at present, the net value early warning line and stop loss line of relevant products issued by the institution in this channel are 0.85 yuan and 0.80 yuan respectively. The company’s “preliminary negotiation goal” this time is to “reduce the stop loss line to as close as possible to 0.6 yuan”.
In such a market environment, it is normal for private equity institutions to be unable to carry it. However, it is quite helpless to adjust the stop loss line of 0.8 yuan to close to 0.6 yuan, because if the net value of the fund falls to the liquidation line, risk control will cut positions passively; Even if the fundamentals of the company you hold are good, when the market mood recovers, the good company rises, but it is completely empty at this time.
It seems that the risk of short positions is much greater than that of short positions. This made DAGO think of the roadshow minutes of a private placement last month, in which he made an in-depth analysis of a logistics company. Although the net value has retreated sharply this year, and the share price of the logistics company has fallen by nearly 40% this year, as long as we stick to it and “bullets” continue to cover our positions, the share price of the logistics company has rebounded by 25% in these two days.
There was a private placement boss who was almost short, but now there is a private placement to reduce the stop loss line. Different institutions have different investment logic and operation methods. No one is right or wrong. DAGO doesn’t give much evaluation here. Some strategies and methods of institutions are not suitable for ordinary investors.
Let’s talk about today’s a shares. The intraday protection of financial stocks was very positive. For a time, they wanted to stabilize the market. However, there were too few follow-up stocks to move.
Some investors quoted Fan Zhiyi’s words and came up with a paragraph: “what is the level of market style now? Just a few strong sectors, your securities companies are pulling popularity. Can they pull…”
Investors can understand the helplessness of the current market. The Shanghai Composite Index has been below the 60 day moving average for three consecutive months. The gem index has been below the 60 day moving average for nearly four consecutive months. The two major indexes confirm each other. It is undoubtedly a weak market that has been below the 60 day moving average for more than one quarter.
The stocks that can best explain the current market mentality are the “demon king” of today’s A-share – Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) . The sky floor + ground and sky board was once staged in the session. This “soul stirring” trend is extremely rare. The last time-sharing stock was still North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) .
The mood of investors participating in Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) today is as follows:
9:40: rise up, the bidding becomes weak and strong, and the board will be connected tomorrow;
10:00: can this height board explode? Why don’t you seal it back?
10:30: big dive, over, BBQ!
13:40: pull up and continue to take off!
14:17: it’s all over now. I’ll cut the meat by the limit tomorrow!
14:29: Heaven and earth, it’s too strong! Big meat tomorrow!
15:00: I’m so tired today
Looking at it, I feel that my heart beats faster, the limit of rise and fall, and great sorrow and joy are just between one thought. When the leaves fall and the autumn is known, we can see the leopard from the spot. Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) such a strange trend, we need to understand it before we can understand the market:
The earth and sky sector is a great joy; God, it’s great sorrow. Tiandi board, the buyer, must be unlimited enthusiasm and madness for this listed company; Tianfloorboards, those who sell are bound to be infinitely desperate and disheartened to this listed company.
Within a day, both types of people exist, and through practical actions, the stock price will be pushed up and down, with fierce tactics, which shows that the market expectations and emotions are extremely chaotic.
In recent days, stimulated by the news of “accelerating the construction of a national unified market”, the concept of logistics has become very strong, and DAGO has been thinking about the unified market. The policy level is “breaking” and “establishing”: breaking barriers and establishing rules. The previous Internet antitrust belongs to the category of breaking barriers.
In addition to macro policies, logistics, channels and credit at the hardware level are also important elements.
The basis of logistics is transportation. It is recognized that our country has a strong infrastructure. However, DAGO checked the data of railway and highway today, and some of them have refreshed the three outlooks. Take the railway as an example, the total mileage is ahead of us, but the railway density (railway length per 10000 square kilometers) is even behind India. Has our infrastructure come to an end? At this level, there is a long way to go.
In fact, China’s road freight still accounts for a considerable proportion, which is also an important factor leading to the rise of logistics costs. If we can get through and reduce logistics costs through railway construction, it will be quite beneficial to industry and economy. From this point of view, the warehousing and logistics speculation in the A-share market is logically supported.
As for channels, there is no problem because of the existence of e-commerce giants. There is also a credit problem. The construction of infrastructure in digital economy can make credit simple. More are very professional, and DAGO can only talk here.
The market pulled too hard yesterday and fell today. Many friends expected it, but the ratio of rise and fall was uncomfortable. The market has once again proved that it is difficult to drive market sentiment by expanding finance.
At this time, can big money try another way of attack? A considerable number of stocks have fallen greatly recently. Can we make an oversold?
For example, although there are post epidemic and policy game factors in yesterday’s soaring retail, some stocks in the sector have been at low levels in recent years, and some have even fallen since June 2015. Can this wave of retail drive the oversold from point to area? This is a noteworthy point.
It is difficult to attack the market, the mainstream funds are very cautious, and there is a certain consensus on the fluctuation of the market. For example, most people agree that “the index fluctuates between 3100 and 3300”. When this consensus comes out, someone will copy the bottom near 3100, and someone will sell in advance near 3300.
Such funds are often flexible and have a certain amount of hot money, small private placement and quantification of some tracking hotspots. Active management of large-scale public offering and private placement are basically immovable, because they can’t move, they go up when they buy, and smash the market before they reduce their positions. For them, lying down is the best choice.
The consensus will eventually be broken, either breakthrough or decline. I have talked about both methods in detail. There is no need to predict. Just go out of the market and follow it one step.
