One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 4.45%, 3.39 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.06%, and the gem index fell 3.64%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell 4.38%, wind power fell 2.22% and photovoltaic fell 5.20%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The average transaction price of single crystal re feeding exceeded 250000 yuan / ton. In 2022q2, pay attention to the changes of overseas demand. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background of accelerating the progress of new release capacity of silicon wafers, the situation of short supply of silicon materials continues, the price of silicon materials has increased for 12 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding has exceeded 250000 yuan / ton to 250700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the tight supply and demand situation of silicon materials in April will continue and the price will remain high; On the other hand, the prices of silicon wafers and batteries have continued to rise. While the price of Chinese components remains stable, the executive price of European components is still expected to rise slightly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to European demand and the impact of the US Anti circumvention case on us demand.
2. The action of Europe and the United States on China’s photovoltaic industry may bring short-term emotional disturbance, but the actual impact is limited. Recently, the US Department of Commerce said that it would launch an anti circumvention investigation on Chinese Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) products. Meanwhile, the EU energy commissioner said that the EU would rebuild Europe’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) manufacturing industry at all costs, but China’s photovoltaic manufacturing industry still has obvious advantages in cost, scale and technological progress, In the short term, it may be difficult for other regions to achieve decoupling from China’s photovoltaic manufacturing industry while vigorously developing the installed capacity of photovoltaic.
According to the German news agency, Germany China Pavilion passed a package of bills on April 6. It is estimated that by 2030, Germany’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity will be increased from the current 59gw to 215gw, and the new installed capacity in a single year will exceed 20GW from 2026; After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the urgent need of the EU to accelerate energy transformation will continue to promote the rapid increase of its new energy installed capacity.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the prices of the industrial chain are expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. Shandong Province has made it clear that it will subsidize offshore wind power projects, and the development of China’s offshore wind projects is expected to speed up. On April 1, the deputy director of Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau said that he would subsidize the “14th five year plan” offshore wind power projects completed and connected to the grid in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2024, which is the second province after Guangdong Province to explicitly subsidize the offshore wind projects; With the continuous decline of the bidding price of offshore wind turbines, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution; In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Under the domestic substitution logic, focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
