On Wednesday, April 13, A-Shares fluctuated in a narrow range, with a slight intraday rise and fall, a significant contraction, and a slight outflow of funds to the north. As of the closing, most of the major A-share indexes fell, among which the gem index fell by 2.25% and the Kechuang 50 index fell by nearly 23%. The turnover of Shanghai stock market was 398217 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen stock market was 475224 billion yuan. The total turnover of the two markets was 873441 billion yuan, which was significantly reduced from 916432 billion yuan on the previous trading day.
(the A-share market has been flat since April)
Since April, the A-share market has been relatively flat. Due to the continuous sharp decline in the market in mid March, there was panic in the market. Many investors chose to clear their positions, and even many private placements were forced to liquidate because they reached the stop loss line. At the same time, the institutional group sector also trampled, and the market adjustment was relatively sufficient. Then, the financial committee meeting maintained stability, and the market rebounded in retaliation. However, in April, the retaliatory rebound basically ended, the market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the transaction shrank, which was relatively flat on the whole. In recent days, most investors said they were very confused. The market is like chicken ribs. There is no meat to eat and taste to discard. In this case, how should investors grasp the main line of the market? The reporter interviewed a number of market professionals.
steady growth. Who is the dark horse in investment, consumption and export
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) Shandong Branch Lei Xingliang believes that at present, the main concerns of the market are concentrated in the following points:
The first is the policy expectation and implementation. In fact, before the two sessions after the Spring Festival, the market expected the intensive introduction of positive fiscal policy and friendly monetary policy for a period of time, but there was no news for a long time. Therefore, the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment, and there was a wave of significant adjustment in the market. At present, this mood reappears.
Another concern is the peripheral market. Inflation in the United States has reached a new high, and the Fed may increase interest rates and shrink the table more than expected. At the same time, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds has exceeded that of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds, and the driving force of hot money outflow is increasing.
In Lei Xingliang’s view, in fact, the impact of the external market is more emotional. The main logic affecting the current market is the implementation of the steady growth policy, which is precisely the main line of grasping the current market.
Steady growth involves nothing more than three aspects: investment, consumption and export.
Due to the severe situation of the global epidemic again, it is difficult for trade and exports to make efforts, and various measures in the policy toolbox have been exhausted after the Sino US trade dispute. The central point of development is investment and consumption.
In terms of investment, we can generally look at three directions: real estate, new and old infrastructure and industrial investment. At present, the real estate market has been relaxed and fully reflected in the recent market; In terms of new and old infrastructure, we only hear its voice but don’t see its people, and the final specific investment direction is not clear, which is also the key point of the current market game, which determines the specific sector profits; In terms of industrial investment, Lei Xingliang believes that it is difficult to make efforts. The field of industrial investment is more driven by the economic cycle and entrepreneur confidence, and less affected by policies.
In the field of consumption, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that the impact of the epidemic was more obvious, and many consumer service industries such as catering and tourism were hit hard. Considering the strong transmission of Omicron, the latest asymptomatic infections in Shanghai have exceeded 20000 every day, and there is no sign of peaking or falling, which makes everyone pessimistic about the prospect of consumption growth. How can we coordinate the relationship between epidemic prevention and control and economic growth? How to achieve consumption growth under the situation of epidemic prevention and control? This is a real problem. Therefore, this year’s policy on stimulating consumption is also expected to be introduced as soon as possible, so as to make up for the decline in consumption growth caused by epidemic prevention and control.
how is the future layout
In terms of the trend of a shares, in the short term, after the market low explored the position of 3150 platform on April 12, the V-shaped reversal was insufficient, and the volume adjustment continued on April 13, reflecting the wait-and-see mood of the market and waiting for the landing of positive fiscal policy and friendly monetary policy. In terms of future operation, Lei Xingliang suggested the policy direction of bargain hunting layout, stable growth and promotion fees, such as the post real estate industry chain of central enterprises, new and old infrastructure, household appliances and anti inflation concept.
Yang Delong said that among the economic troika, the most likely large-scale policies are investment and consumption, which can be focused on. On the whole, the current A-share market is in the process of grinding the bottom. Confidence and patience are needed at the bottom. Patiently hold some high-quality leading stocks or high-quality leading funds that have been wrongly killed, and patiently wait for the market to pick up.
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