The securities industry, which enjoyed a feast in the capital market in 2021, took a deep breath in the first quarter of this year.
On April 12, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) took the lead in releasing the performance of the first quarter of 2022. According to the express report, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in the first quarter, "increasing profit without increasing income" realized an operating revenue of 15.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and realized a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of 5.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%, a weighted average return on net assets decreased by 0.55 percentage points, and the basic earnings per share decreased by 10%.
The picture shows the text of 60 Hefei Lifeon Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(003020) 22 first quarter performance express
As the "leading brother" of the securities industry, the decline of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 's revenue confirms the setback of the overall performance of the "naked eye" securities industry. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from various interviews in the industry that due to the joint action of many factors such as market environment and business transformation, including brokerage business, proprietary business, credit business and other brokerage businesses are being affected, and the investment banking business can still fight.
A senior person from the head securities firm told the financial Associated Press, "the performance express of the head securities firm has only experienced a 7% decline in revenue. Small and medium-sized securities firms may be more sad in Q1 this year. However, securities firms that implement characteristic and differentiated playing methods may have bright spots to see."
For the performance in the first quarter, different institutions have given roughly the same research and judgment. Most believe that the revenue and net profit of securities companies will decline in the first quarter of this year, and judge the main reason as the poor market situation. Specifically, it is divided into business and investment business, which may become a burden on the overall performance.
The main research business decreased by 13% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities non bank team Liu Xinqi and Gao Yufei believe that investment business has become a driving factor for the decline China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the follow-up investment businesses such as Kechuang board and PE increased the fluctuation of current investment business, and the investment business is expected to decrease by 51% year-on-year and 61% month on month.
Although the current situation is not optimistic, the executives of the interviewed securities companies are optimistic about the situation of the whole year. In their view, with the imminent implementation of the comprehensive registration system, the steady progress of capital market reform and the improvement of market prosperity, this will bring business increment. A non bank sector analyst told the financial Associated Press, "although the first quarter of this year 'opened the door Black', it does not mean that the industry has entered a cold winter in 2022. On the contrary, it will further test the business thinking and response level of securities companies, which should change from time to time and attack difficulties flexibly."
institutional business or driven performance "fix"
Compared with the poor performance in the first quarter of this year, the performance of 60 Hefei Lifeon Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(003020) 21 was really bright: the operating revenue was 76.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.71%, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 23.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.01%. The main operating performance reached the highest level since the establishment of the company.
At the 2021 performance presentation meeting, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also mentioned the impact of fluctuating market conditions on the company's performance, which had a causal linkage with the poor performance of the first quarterly report.
Shi Benliang, the person in charge of finance of the company, replied that "the global capital market has fluctuated recently due to various reasons such as the international situation. For securities companies, will changes in the external market environment have an impact on the demand for business funds?" The fluctuation is temporary, and the overall situation of China's capital market remains unchanged for a long time. From the perspective of the company's own development, the market has also fluctuated in recent years, but the company's risk business based on the balance sheet has still achieved sustained and steady development.
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that the institutional business or Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) next business increment and profit restoration are important highlights. Liu Xinqi and Gao Yufei, the non bank team of Guojun securities, believe that under the situation of general pressure on the securities business, it is expected that the securities companies with competitive advantages in institutional business in 2022 will lead the industry in profit performance. The research report clearly points out that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , especially after replenishing the capital, will benefit more from the growth of institutional business.
Shi Benliang said that in the volatile market environment, it will also bring some incremental investors to the capital market, especially institutional investors with hedging demand or allocation demand, which is a very good business opportunity for the company Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has accumulated great competitive advantages in the layout of equity derivatives business, ficc and other aspects and product services.
business is generally under pressure, and the brokerage business is "not good with the naked eye"
Spring River warm duck prophet.
The securities industry is highly cyclical, and its performance is not only affected by its own operating level, but also very sensitive to the macroeconomic situation and the development of the industry Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) revenue fell or was not the case in the first quarter of this year.
From January to March this year, under the combined influence of multiple factors such as the pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global epidemic, the A-share market fell significantly. The data showed that in the first quarter, the Shanghai index fell by 10.65%, the Shenzhen index fell by 18.44% and the gem index fell by 19.96%; The net outflow amount of the main force totaled 1.5 trillion yuan, and the net inflow amount was only 6 times in 58 trading days; As the market index fell, northbound funds also sold a net 24.328 billion yuan. In such a volatile market and irrational market environment, the performance of securities business will inevitably be affected.
Liu Xinqi and Gao Yufei, the non bank team of Guojun securities, pointed out that due to the influence of market conditions, the business of securities companies was generally under pressure in the first quarter of 2022, and the income of different businesses was differentiated. It is expected that the revenue of 41 listed securities companies in the first quarter decreased by 10.31% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 11.77% year-on-year, and the profitability decreased.
Brokerage business may become the business line of "visible bad" in the first quarter of this year. The financial Associated Press reporter noted that in the first quarter of 2022, due to the impact of market adjustment, the scale of new fund issuance decreased, the difficulty of continuous marketing increased, and the commission income of securities companies was under pressure. In addition, the total turnover of the two cities exceeded 58 trillion yuan, the average daily turnover exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the average daily stock base trading volume increased over the same period, but the commission rate still continued the downward trend in recent years.
A group of data recently disclosed by Shenzhen Securities Association may support the above situation. In early April, Shenzhen Securities Association announced the situation of Shenzhen securities market in January this year and the operation data of the business department under its jurisdiction. Affected by the market, there was a significant month on month decline in a number of data such as the total transaction volume of stock base, operating revenue and profit, sales amount and revenue of financial products in January. Among them, the total operating revenue of the business department decreased by 31.91% month on month, the total profit decreased by 31.91% month on month, and the sales revenue of financial products decreased sharply by 89.16% month on month.
However, the financial Associated Press reporter noted that some institutional non bank analysts believe that the brokerage revenue will grow in the first quarter Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) thinks that the net income of brokerage business in the industry will increase by 18.9% year-on-year in the first quarter.
However, if the brokerage business is indeed less than expected according to the data, it may affect the pace of wealth management transformation to a certain extent. From the performance of 2021 disclosed at present, the background of wealth management of many securities companies is gradually deepening. The financial Associated Press noted that although the situation is not optimistic, the response of securities companies is not pessimistic. Respondents admit that fluctuations affect business development, but they are still firmly optimistic about the long-term development trend of wealth management.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) general manager Yang Minghui told the financial associated press at the company's 2021 performance conference that short-term market fluctuations will not affect the long-term trend of wealth management, and even strengthen the development of business to a certain extent, which may especially activate customers' demand and dependence on standardizing the services of professional wealth management institutions.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) vice president Xu Haining believes that every round of market volatility is a good opportunity for wealth management institutions to examine their own organizational construction, improve their customer service system, and improve their business ability, professional level and psychological quality.
stock and debt double kill market fluctuation, and the investment business may be the main reason to drag down the performance
According to the conclusion drawn from the analysis of the Institutional Research Report, the fluctuation of the stock bond double kill market led to the decline of the rate of return on financial assets, and the investment business became the main reason that dragged down the performance of securities companies in the first quarter of this year. Data show that in addition to the decline of a shares, in the international market, the pan European Stoxx 600 index fell 6.5% and the S & P 500 index fell 4.3% in the first quarter; In the bond market, the global bond market experienced the largest quarterly decline on record.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is estimated that the investment business of securities companies in the first quarter will decrease by 51% year-on-year and 61% month on month. The broker pointed out that under the influence of the market, on the one hand, the directional self investment income may fall, and the passive directional exposure such as science and innovation board and PE follow-up investment may increase the current investment fluctuation; On the other hand, cautious market risk appetite may reduce the activity of capital intermediary business driven by customer demand.
In addition, the financial Associated Press reporter reported many times in the first quarter of this year that the floating losses of the securities firm's sci-tech innovation board and investment business were expanding, which temporarily eroded the investment interests of securities firms.
Data show that in the first quarter of this year, a total of 27 new shares of the first quarter of the first quarter of this year, a total of 27 of which were in the first quarter of this year. As of March 31 this year, the closing price of a total of 18 new shares fell below the issue price at the end of March 31. The closing price of 18 of the first quarter of this year. The closing price of 18 of the first quarter of this year, among which, as of March 31 of this year, a total of 18 of the first quarter of this year. The closing price of 18 NEW shares fell below the issue price at the end of March 31 of this year. The closing price of 18 new shares fell below the issue price at the end of March 31 of this year. There are Shanghai Jielong Industry Group Corporation Limited(600836) 00837 9 and other 9 securities companies suffered floating losses, with a total floating loss of about 390 million yuan, including Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) floating losses.
investment banking and asset management developed steadily, and OTC derivatives performed well
Although the "lifeline" brokerage business and the emerging self operated business were less than expected, not all businesses suffered setbacks. In the first quarter of this year, the brokerage investment bank and asset management business still achieved steady performance.
The data show that in the first quarter of 2022, the scale of stock underwriting increased slightly year-on-year, the underwriting rate showed a downward trend, while the scale of bond underwriting increased steadily, and the investment banking business was basically flat year-on-year; In terms of asset management business, as of January this year, the net scale of public funds in the market was 25.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.0%, which will promote the growth of asset management business income of securities companies in the first quarter of this year.
The China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Research Report has made estimates for the performance of key businesses of listed securities companies such as brokerage business, investment business, investment banking business, asset management business and credit business in the first quarter. The specific performance is as follows: the investment business is 24.2 billion, down 20% year-on-year and 29% month on month; Brokerage income was 27.5 billion, down 4% year-on-year and 20% month on month; Credit business revenue was 12.5 billion, down 2% year-on-year and 23% month on month; Investment banking revenue was 12.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month on month decrease of 21%; The revenue from asset management business was 9.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a month on month decrease of 26%.
It is worth mentioning that the most eye-catching performance in the first quarter of this year may be the OTC derivatives business. In recent years, OTC derivatives tools have become more and more abundant, and the OTC derivatives business has developed rapidly and expanded in scale. Data show that after the nominal principal of OTC financial derivatives exceeded the 2 trillion yuan mark for the first time at the end of December 2021, it continued to increase in January this year. The market expects that the scale of capital participation in March is expected to reach a new record. Overall, the survival scale in the first quarter will maintain the level of 2 trillion.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) non bank financial team believes that the main force driving the growth of institutional customers' business of securities companies in 2021 is the net investment income brought by capital intermediary business represented by OTC derivatives business; The rapid development of customer demand business with the process of institutionalization exceeding expectations has driven the growth of financial assets of securities companies.
mechanism: expected to "squat and jump"
While the business of securities companies is generally under pressure, listed securities companies also need to face the "fire baking" of the secondary market.
According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, only Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) achieved a cumulative increase of 6% among the 48 shenwanyi securities companies, while the remaining 47 securities companies fell, with an average decrease of 14%, and 29 stocks fell more than the average. Among them, China stock market news (- 32%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (- 29%), China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) (- 26%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (- 26%), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (- 22%), China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (- 20%), Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) (- 20%), Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) (- 20%) all decreased by more than 20%.
According to the research and judgment of many institutions, brokerage stocks will pick up in the second quarter. There are two main reasons. One is that the overall performance of securities companies has maintained growth and the profitability has been steadily improved. The other is that the comprehensive registration system reform and the capital market boost information measures are conducive to the release.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) in its investment strategy of securities industry in April, it is pointed out that under the expectation of steady growth, the reform of capital market has been strengthened, which has become the catalyst for the market of securities companies. At present, the valuation of Pb of securities companies is 1.46 times, which is in the historical quantile of 7.62%, with a high margin of safety. With the promotion of capital market reform and the growth of residents' demand for wealth management, securities companies usher in new opportunities for development. Under the background of capital market reform, leading securities companies have advantages in capital strength, risk management ability, research pricing ability and business layout.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that considering the fluctuation characteristics of securities companies' stocks (policy sensitive and liquidity sensitive) and the basis of oversold in the early stage, securities companies' stocks are expected to usher in a "squat take-off" in the future.
