Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) lowered the target price of Maotai from 3000 yuan to 2246 yuan, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) is strongly recommended to be as high as 2800 yuan
institutions can’t agree on the tone. Where will the “stock king” Maotai go
Recently, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report entitled Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : change in adversity and indolence in prosperity. The report rated Maotai as buy and gave a target price of 2246 yuan. In February last year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also gave Maotai a target price of 3000 yuan in the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : three trillion from scratch, Changpo thick snow and spring breeze. In a little more than a year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has adjusted the target price of Maotai from 3000 yuan to less than 2300 yuan.
Reviewing the research report released last year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) was obviously “beaten in the face”. The reason why the target price of Maotai was set at 3000 yuan, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) at that time, it was said that after the market value of the company stood at 3 trillion yuan, there was still broad space for a long time. It is precisely based on the continued bullish fundamentals of the company and the room for valuation improvement under high uncertainty that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) raised the one-year target price of Maotai to 3000 yuan.
However, the current Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price is on the line of 1700 yuan. Even if Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) adjusts the target price to less than 2300 yuan, it means that Maotai still has a lot of room for growth.
The person who sang the “anti tune” with Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) came from China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) . In the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : quality becomes faith and brand demonstrates value released this year, the securities firm raised the target price of Maotai to 2800 yuan, which was rated as highly recommended China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the lower limit of Maotai’s intrinsic reasonable value should be about 2171 yuan, and the current valuation already has a sufficient margin of safety.
\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030)
3000 yuan target price greatly discounted
Recently, in the latest research report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : seeking change in adversity, prosperity is not lazy, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) adjusted the target price of Maotai to 2246 yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the medium and long-term upward trend of the wholesale price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) core product Pfizer has a good logical support of supply and demand, the channel structure has been continuously adjusted close to the equilibrium state, and the factory price has been guided to rise reasonably and steadily. In terms of quantity, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the theoretically available supply and marketing volume of Maotai liquor can achieve medium and high single digit growth; In terms of price, everything is ready for price increase, except Dongfeng. At the end of the “14th five year plan”, Maotai Group’s business goal of 200 billion revenue can be easily realized. Pufei’s price increase and Maotai’s 1935 volume will bring more space than expected.
Considering Maotai’s target of 15% revenue growth under the performance guidance in 2022, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) raised Maotai’s performance forecast. In the long run, the output of Maotai liquor still has room for improvement, but the ceiling is low. The capacity expansion of subsequent series of liquor combined with brand upgrading is expected to raise the growth curve and growth space of the company.
Referring to the valuation level of comparable companies and the valuation center of the company since 2017, and considering the company’s strong ability to raise prices, large dividends from price reform and support for bottle opening demand, Pufei’s price increase and Maotai 1935’s large volume have brought more room for performance to exceed expectations, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) reasonable valuation is about 2.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to about 36 times P / E ratio in 2024, which can be over allocated below the dynamic valuation center to maintain the buy rating.
More than a year ago, that is, in February 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : three trillion from scratch, Changpo thick snow and spring breeze, which set the target price of Maotai at 3000 yuan.
Continuously thicken the core barrier of Maotai and brand and continue to evolve. In the short term, non-standard products are expected to take the lead in accelerating growth, maintaining the stability of Pufei’s price and consolidating the possibility of potential price increase. More growth potential energy is expected to be released in the dimension of 1-2 years. From a longer perspective, the company has a solid foundation for stable growth of volume and price, has high certainty of long-term performance growth, and will fully enjoy the valuation premium. In 2021, the Spring Festival sales volume continued to consolidate stronger consensus. Baijiu sector investment is still optimistic, Moutai offensive and defensive, and more catalysis is expected to lead the industry to rise. After the market value of the company stands at 3 trillion yuan, there is still broad space for a long time, and the one-year target price of the company is raised to 3000 yuan.
\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999)
strongly recommend up to 2800 yuan
Although Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) lowered the target price of Maotai, the latest target price of 2246 yuan still has more room to rise than the current share price of Maotai. Securities Times reporter noted that many securities companies are still optimistic about Maotai.
At the end of February this year, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) in the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : quality becomes faith and brand demonstrates value, set the target price of Maotai at 2800 yuan and rated it as highly recommended.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that with the upgrading of the long-term fund at home and abroad, the Baijiu valuation system is rebuilt, and the high-end Baijiu has both growth and certainty. The valuation of the high-end consumer brands still has room for improvement. At the same time, combined with relevant calculations, in terms of cash flow, growth, life cycle and stability, the lower limit of Maotai’s internal reasonable value should be about 2171 yuan, and the current valuation already has a sufficient margin of safety.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that Maotai, as a scarce asset, has strong resilience in demand, and the positive feedback of dynamic sales and performance from a short-term perspective is a high probability event. From the medium and long-term perspective, the company has strong determination to tackle tough problems in reform, and the price system is expected to continue to return to marketization. The series of wines have entered a period of rapid development under the radiation of brand power and the support of production capacity. With the continuous expansion of brand advantages, the valuation expansion speed of Maotai may also be faster than that of other varieties, and the acceleration of performance growth center is expected to bring benefits China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that Maotai can be attacked and defended. At present, it is worth increasing the layout China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) therefore, Maotai is given a target price of 2500 ~ 2800 yuan in 2023, corresponding to 45 ~ 50 times of P / E in 2023, and the two-year compound rate of return is 17.6% ~ 24.5%.
Haitong international is also optimistic about Maotai. The research report released by the company predicts that the earnings per share of Maotai from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.24 yuan, 57.57 yuan and 67.20 yuan respectively (previously 41.43 yuan, 48.74 yuan and 56.28 yuan). Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, Haitong international maintained 50 times of PE in Maotai in 2022, raised the target price from 243724 yuan to 246218 yuan, and maintained a rating superior to the market.
In addition, Huachuang Securities said that Maotai’s strong brand core has cast the best business stability in the industry, and the new management is determined to forge ahead, pursue faster development, change from constant speed cruise to active acceleration, and the marketing reform is being effectively promoted. In the current environment of external uncertainty and reduced market risk appetite, Maotai’s accelerated growth against the trend is more eye-catching, and the certainty premium is more prominent. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to maintain the 2023 and 2024 earnings of 260258 yuan per share, and maintain the 2023 earnings target of 260258 yuan per share.
