As one of the most concerned main lines since the beginning of the year, the real estate sector is now callback trend on April 12.
On the afternoon of April 12, A-Shares rebounded strongly, and most of the 31 Shenwan industries were popular. However, the real estate sector "bucked the trend" and fell by more than 2%, ranking at the bottom. During the previous market shock, the real estate sector rebounded by more than 30% in the second half of March.
Does the recent correction mean that this round of real estate market has "come to an end"? In the view of institutions, the expected warming of policy easing is the main reason for the recent rise of the real estate sector. The verification of fundamental data is very important for the sustainability of the excess real estate market. Although the industry fundamentals are expected to recover slowly from the second quarter, the volatility of this round of excess real estate market will increase compared with previous rounds.
policy accelerated warming
fundamentals waiting for response
Data show that the real estate (Shenwan) index rose slightly at the beginning of the year, followed by the decline of the overall market of a shares; After falling by more than 7% on March 15, the sector rebounded strongly from March 16 and closed up by more than 30% on April 6. The intraday index once hit a new high since March 19, 2021.
Institutions generally believe that this round of rise in the real estate sector is mainly driven by the expectation of loose policy. Shengang Securities believes that the real estate industry is currently at the time node of "accelerating the warming of policies and waiting for the response of fundamentals".
Anxin Securities believes that the increase of excess real estate market is closely related to the policy regulation cycle. For whether the excess market can continue, the verification of fundamental data is very important.
Shengang Securities believes that this round of industry range growth has been the highest since 2020 and the seventh highest since 2008. In terms of the rising speed, the annualized income of the current range rise is far higher than the average level of other high rise markets in history. The rising momentum of the sector will gradually slow down in the future, but the short-term market will continue.
Source: Shengang Securities Research Report
optimistic about the industry fundamentals, stabilized in the second quarter
Despite the continuous correction in recent days, as of the closing on April 12, as many as 65 stocks in the real estate sector have increased by more than 10% this year. Today, both Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) and Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) have increased by more than 200% this year.
In the case of policy expectation warming, how do institutions view the fundamentals of the real estate sector?
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that house prices have significantly adjusted in the third quarter of 2021 and have stabilized since the fourth quarter of last year. The cases of Zhengzhou and other cities show that the relaxation of real estate policies has an obvious stimulating effect on transactions. It is expected that the fundamentals of the real estate industry will recover slowly from the second quarter.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) believes that the sales recovery of the real estate industry is gradually approaching. With the current clear policy tone and encouragement direction, the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened. Although the high-frequency data shows that the current market sales are still declining, with the release of the policy, some cities have shown signs of recovery. The recent outbreak may affect the recovery of sales, but the government's determination to boost the market is clear.
While being optimistic about the excess market of real estate or continuing, Anxin securities stressed that the steady growth effect and fundamental improvement brought by this round of marginal relaxation of real estate need to go through multiple tests of the epidemic, financing of real estate enterprises and residents' leverage ratio, and the volatility of this round of excess Market of real estate will increase compared with the previous round.
focus on industry leading opportunities
From the perspective of valuation, the data show that on March 15 before the launch of this round of real estate sector, the price earnings ratio (TTM) of real estate (Shenwan) index has dropped from nearly 28 times in early 2016 to above 7 times; As of April 6, the current round of market rise has driven the valuation of the sector to rise above 11 times.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that from the perspective of value, one of the main reasons for the rise of the real estate sector in this round is the exit of the fast turnover model. The improvement of the model has led to the increase of land acquisition profit and the decline of real leverage. There are reasons for valuation repair Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) it is suggested that in addition to paying attention to relatively safe private enterprises, small and medium-sized state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, high-quality leading real estate enterprises with "slow turnover" and leverage ability can also be preferred.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) it is estimated that leading real estate stocks are expected to improve the quality of continuous operation. In the process of continuous liquidation of the industry, roe is expected to stabilize and recover. Three types of industry leaders are recommended in the follow-up: first, the downward pressure on performance in 2021 is fully released, the land investment control is optimized, and the stagflation leader with the strongest potential land acquisition ability corresponds to the strongest sales elasticity and business quality improvement space; Second, the white horse leader that benefits from the continuous improvement of the competition pattern to the greatest extent; Third, it is the leader of high rated and stable private enterprises.
