In the weak market, what stocks are the most resistant to decline?
In the weak A-share market since this year, there are still some listed companies whose share prices are relatively resistant to decline or even rise against the trend. What are the characteristics of these companies?
According to the statistics of the first finance and economics reporter, as of April 12, 1039 individual stocks have risen (including zero rise) this year. According to the disclosed annual report data, the better performance has provided some support for the stock price performance.
As of the closing on April 12, 490 of the 1039 companies had disclosed the 2021 annual report data, of which 89% were profitable and 73% had a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company.
"Absolute high prosperity (absolute high profit growth) is more important than the marginal change of growth rate." Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) strategy chief analyst and director assistant Liu Chenming suggested that we should pay attention to the industries or companies whose plight reverses the direction.
Liu Chenming told the first financial reporter that from the perspective of long-term funds, in addition to selecting a good company, the valuation at the time of purchase also determines its ability to obtain excess returns, because for long-term funds, mean reversion is an important logical support. As long as the quality of the company is no problem, the quantile of valuation at the time of purchase is low enough and the holding cycle is long enough, the medium and long-term in the future, The company's valuation probability can return to the historical central level.
weak market 1000 shares rose against the trend
Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has fluctuated downward. After a phased low was found on March 16, it has maintained a state of shock consolidation. As of April 12, the Shanghai composite index had fallen 11.72%.
In the same period, a total of 1958 stocks in the A-share market outperformed the market. Among them, 1039 stocks rose (including zero rise), 533 stocks rose by more than 10%, 296 stocks rose by more than 20%, 83 stocks rose by more than 50%, and 17 stocks rose by more than one time.
In March this year, there was a sharp decline in the A-share market. After that, stocks that still continued to rise were relatively more resistant to decline. Taking 1039 stocks whose share prices rose as a sample, 784 stocks rose from March 1 to April 12, accounting for 75%, of which 172 stocks rose by more than 20%.
In terms of performance, among the 1039 stocks mentioned above, as of the closing on April 12, 490 companies had disclosed the 2021 annual report data, of which 436 companies were profitable in 2021, accounting for 89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 359 companies increased year-on-year, accounting for 73%.
Among these thousand companies, 66 companies have disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and most of the net profits have increased significantly year-on-year.
Among them, on April 11, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) predicted that the net profit in the first quarter of this year increased by 367.07 times to 419.66 times year-on-year. On April 12, the stock price of the company was closed shortly after the opening. After the closing on April 7, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will increase by 274.73% to 318.82% year-on-year. The company's share price rose by more than 7% on April 8 and April 9.
Similar phenomena also appeared after the disclosure of the performance forecast in 2021. There were 331 companies with the lower limit of the growth of the net profit forecast in Shanghai stock market exceeding 100%, including 268 main board companies. After the disclosure of the performance forecast, the average value of the company's share price showed a relatively outperforming trend.
Among the above 331 companies in Shanghai stock market, 146 companies have disclosed their annual reports, with a total net profit of 475.58 billion yuan in 2021; Among the 268 companies on the main board, 113 have disclosed annual reports, with a total net profit of 457.66 billion yuan.
According to incomplete statistics, the companies with large increase are mainly concentrated in mining, chemical industry and manufacturing industry. Representing companies such as Yankuang energy, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) .
what are the investment opportunities in the disclosure window of the first quarterly report
From the above data, most of the stocks rising in the A-share shock city have certain performance support. So what types of blue chip stocks are more concerned by the market?
"For most A-share companies, the annual excess return depends more on the growth rate of deducting non profits in that year. That is, whether the market is bull market, bear market or shock market, whether the style is blue chip or growth, and whether the sector rotation is fast or slow, the rise and fall of one-year dimension is basically monotonous and positively correlated with the prosperity of that year." Liuchenming told the first financial reporter.
Liu Chenming also said that in terms of the judgment of growth rate and prosperity, the absolute high prosperity (absolute high profit growth) is more important than the marginal change of growth rate, that is, companies with high prosperity but a decline in growth rate compared with the previous period can still obtain good excess returns; The growth rate is better than that in the early stage, but the prosperity is still weak. In most cases, companies will still lose.
At present, the A-share market is in the disclosure window period of the first quarterly report. What investment opportunities and risks need to be paid attention to during this period?
Liuchenming said that according to the disclosure of business data and performance forecast from January to February, the expected better directions for the first quarter report include lithium battery, lithium battery equipment, automotive electronics, photovoltaic modules and inverters, military industry, CXO, cycle, etc. in addition, the steady growth policy has been implemented since the end of last year, At present, the direction of steady growth (including nuclear power, 5g + industrial Internet, UHV, water conservancy, pipe gallery, etc.) is expected to usher in the realization of policies, implementation and performance.
"However, it should be noted that since the first quarter, credit expansion has experienced twists and turns, and the implementation effect of steady growth has always been less than expected. At the same time, the fermentation of the epidemic has further dragged down China's steady growth pace. Disturbance items such as overseas geographical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike still exist. There is still uncertainty in the market trend in the next stage, or a drag on the earnings of relevant sectors." Liu Chenming pointed out the risk.
In addition, "dilemma reversal" has become a direction of stock market attention recently. Dilemma reversals can be divided into two categories. One is caused by external policies, but because they still need external factors to catalyze, this kind of reversals have more uncertainty than the latter; The other is industries that can promote the reversal of difficulties without relying on policies.
\u3000\u3000 "Looking back at the historical data, we find that the basic order of the six most preferred companies in the market every year is as follows: 'accelerated growth' ≈ 'sustained high growth' ≈ 'decelerating growth - low decline' 'dilemma reversal' 'decelerating growth - high decline' 'low speed stability'. There were too many companies with rapid growth last year, and most of them can be classified into the top three categories of assets, but by this year, the growth rate of these companies has decreased to varying degrees As a result, the market began to pay attention to the fourth category of sectors since the fourth quarter of last year, namely 'dilemma reversal'. " Liu Chenming said.
In his opinion, in the dilemma reversal direction, it is suggested to focus on the subdivided fields such as pork, mandatory food, automobile chain, tourism travel, medicine and real estate leaders. At present, pork and tourism travel perform relatively well, and the follow-up automobile chain (EV, smart car, auto parts), mandatory food, medicine and real estate leaders can also focus on.
For the future prediction of the A-share market, Liu Chenming believes that the logic of the early market interpretation is: the worse the social finance in the early stage and the longer the epidemic lasts, the more vigorous measures to stabilize growth are needed in the follow-up. If the growth rate of social financing and credit can pick up quickly in Q2, that is, the policies of social financing and greater efforts have been fulfilled, the market begins to expect that the economy will gradually stabilize and improve in the future. At the same time, the increase of residual liquidity can also improve risk appetite, and the expectations of consumption and growth sectors may be gradually repaired.
