The media sector, which has been silent for a long time, finally improved today, and Shenzhen Bingchuan Network Co.Ltd(300533) , Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) , Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) , etc. rose one after another. In the view of many institutions, the outbreak of the media sector is mainly related to the restart of domestic game titles.
From the perspective of public fund positions, as of the end of last year, public funds showed a low allocation to the media industry as a whole. However, many “top stream” fund managers have smelled the opportunities.
For the rise of the media sector, Luo Guoqing, manager of GF China Securities media ETF and feeder fund, believes that the General Administration of press and publication will restart the distribution of game titles every eight months, and the supply is expected to recover. The media industry is an industry in which supply drives demand. With the increase of supply, market consumption expenditure is expected to increase. At the same time, from a historical point of view, once the release of the edition number is restarted, the short-term probability will not stop. It is expected that a continuous stream of edition numbers will be issued every month, which will improve the prosperity of the whole media sector in the current depressed market environment.
Luo Guoqing said that in the long run, favorable industrial policies, enterprise performance growth and bottom valuation are expected to promote the recovery of the media industry. As of April 11, the dynamic P / E ratio of China Securities media index has dropped to 24.95 times, which is at the historical quantile of 6.34% since the index was listed. With the superposition of the quantile of undervalued value, the recovery of industry prosperity and the growth of performance, the media sector is expected to usher in the rise of share price in the future.
Zhou Jiansheng, senior researcher of Nord fund, believes that the restart of the game version number is directly beneficial to the game sector. On the one hand, the restart of the edition number restored the normal rhythm, dispelled the market’s concerns about medium and long-term performance, and was conducive to the repair of valuation; On the other hand, the number of edition numbers issued this time is much less than in the past, which reflects the idea that the regulatory authorities aim to control the supply side through total amount control and guide the high-quality and standardized development of the industry.
“The game industry may usher in a new normal, and the competition pattern of the industry is expected to be further optimized. In the medium and long term, small companies with weak foundation and poor anti risk ability will be eliminated at an accelerated pace, which will be more beneficial to leading companies as a whole. The short-term sector is expected to receive a wave of valuation repair first, and the business rhythm disrupted by the version number is expected to take some time to repair.” Zhou Jiansheng said.
However, a fund manager in South China warned that caution should be maintained. “The restart and issuance of domestic game version numbers may only affect market sentiment at present, have little impact on the performance of listed companies, and will not participate in the short term.”
From the overall position, the public fund showed a low allocation to the media industry last year. Wanlian securities statistics show that by the end of last year, the fund’s position in the media sector was only 1.31%. Since 2015, the fund position level of the media sector has entered a downward channel, which rebounded briefly and then decreased again. It was at a low level in recent years at the end of 2021.
Changes of over allocation / low allocation in the media sector from 2012 to 2021
From the perspective of the market value of the shares held by mutual funds, the head companies are relatively favored. The head companies are relatively favored. At the end of the last quarter of last year, the top media stocks in the market value of the shares held by mutual funds that rank among the top media stocks in the market value of the shares held by mutual funds at the end of last quarter last year. Media stocks that rank among the top of the market value of the shares held by mutual funds include Zhejiang Jingxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002020) 20202027 \ , Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited(601928) , etc.
At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the media industry’s top 20 fund held heavy stocks (sorted by the total market value of Holdings)
It is worth noting that although the overall allocation proportion of public funds to the media industry is low, many “top stream” fund managers have long been ambushed. For example, as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, e fund blue chip selection managed by Zhang Kun held Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) 49716500 shares. Combing the fund’s regular reports, it can be found that Zhang Kun mainly bought in the second half of last year.
Similarly, in the fourth quarter of last year, Yinhua Xinyi, managed by Li Xiaoxing, added Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) 22628800 shares. In the annual report of the fund, Li Xiaoxing explained this: “In 2022, we believe that there is limited room for downward valuation in the industry, and the excess return comes from performance growth and valuation repair. In the subdivided industries, we are optimistic about the downcycle of undervalued value and games. In the downcycle direction of undervalued value, we are optimistic about brand advertising that has benefited from the dividend of consumption upgrading for a long time. The ROI of effect advertising continues to decline due to the peak of online traffic dividend, and the relative cost performance of brand advertising is prominent. As a representative of brand advertising, ladder Media is different from traditional marketing media. The demand and industry pattern are more stable. Under the background of economic construction, the demand is expected to rebound first. After the relevant leading companies follow the consumer sector to rest in the early stage, they currently have considerable absolute income space. “
For the game industry, Li Xiaoxing believes that the core driving force of game performance comes from going to sea. As a representative industry of cultural going to sea, the proportion of overseas revenue of game companies is expected to continue to increase in 2022, and he is optimistic about game companies with high proportion of overseas revenue and growth rate. The concept of future expansion is in the initial stage of uncertainty, and the relevant concept of future expansion will be in the initial stage of concern.
