Recently, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report entitled Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : seeking change in adversity and not being lazy in prosperity. The target price of Maotai given in the report is 2246 yuan and the rating is buy.
In February last year, it was Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , and the target price of Maotai was 3000 yuan in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : three trillion from scratch, long slope thick snow and spring breeze. In a little more than a year, CITIC adjusted the target price of Maotai from 3000 yuan to less than 2300 yuan.
Previously, the target price was set at 3000 yuan. The research report said that after the market value of the company stood at 3 trillion yuan, there was still broad space for a long time. Based on the continuous optimism about the company's fundamentals and the valuation improvement space under high uncertainty, the company raised the one-year target price to 3000 yuan.
reporters noted that the current share price of Maotai is about 1700 yuan. Even if the target price is adjusted to less than 2300 yuan, there is still a lot of room for increase China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) in this year's report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : quality becomes faith and brand shows value, the target price of Maotai is 2800 yuan, which is highly recommended. Merchants believe that the lower limit of Maotai's internal reasonable value should be about 2171 yuan, and the current valuation already has a sufficient margin of safety
Maotai target price adjusted from 3000 yuan to 2246 yuan
Recently, in the Research Report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : change in adversity, prosperity is not lazy, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) adjusted the target price of Maotai to 2246 yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the medium and long-term upward trend of the wholesale price of the company's core product Pufei has a good logical support of supply and demand, the channel structure has been continuously adjusted close to the equilibrium state, and the factory price has been guided to rise reasonably and steadily. In terms of quantity, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the theoretically available supply and marketing volume of Maotai liquor can achieve medium and high single digit growth; In terms of price, everything is ready for price increase, except Dongfeng. At the end of the 14th five year plan, the group's business goal of 200 billion revenue can be easily realized. The price increase of Pufei and the large volume of Maotai 1935 will bring more space than expected.
Taking into account Maotai's target of 15% revenue growth in 2022, CITIC raised Maotai's performance forecast. In the long run, the output of Maotai liquor still has room for improvement, but the ceiling is low. The capacity expansion of subsequent series of liquor combined with brand upgrading is expected to raise the growth curve and growth space of the company.
Referring to the valuation level of comparable companies and the valuation center of the company since 2017, taking into account the strong ability of the company to raise prices, large dividends from price reform and support for bottle opening demand, the price increase of Pufei and the large volume of Maotai 1935 have brought more room for performance than expected. CITIC believes that the reasonable valuation of the company is about 280 billion yuan, corresponding to about 36 times of P / E ratio in 2024. It is recommended to over allocate below the dynamic valuation center. Maintain buy rating.
More than a year ago, that is, in February 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : three trillion from scratch, Changpo thick snow and spring breeze, which positioned the target price of Maotai at 3000 yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) at that time, he said that under the continuous evolution of brand and channel, the core barrier of Maotai was continuously thickened. In the short term, non-standard products are expected to take the lead in accelerating growth, maintaining the stability of Pufei's price and tamping the potential for price increase. In the dimension of one to two years, more growth potential energy is expected to be released. From a longer perspective, the company has a solid foundation for stable growth of volume and price, and has high certainty of long-term performance growth. We hope to fully share the valuation premium. In 2021, the Spring Festival sales volume continued to consolidate stronger consensus. Baijiu sector investment is still optimistic, Moutai offensive and defensive, and more catalysis is expected to lead the industry to rise. After the market value of the company stands at 3 trillion yuan, there is still broad space for a long time, and the one-year target price of the company is raised to 3000 yuan.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) push Maotai, promising 2800 yuan
Although CITIC lowered the target price of Maotai, the latest target price of 2246 yuan still has more room to rise compared with the current share price of Maotai. The reporter noted that many securities companies are still optimistic about Maotai stock price.
at the end of February this year, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) in the report Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : quality becomes faith and brand demonstrates value, the target price of Maotai is 2800 yuan, which is highly recommended
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that with the increase of the long-term capital ratio at home and abroad, Baijiu valuation system was reconstructed. High end Baijiu has both growth and certainty. Valuations still have room for upgrading high-end consumer brands. At the same time, combined with relevant calculations, in terms of cash flow, growth, life cycle and stability, the lower limit of Maotai's internal reasonable value should be about 2171 yuan, and the current valuation already has a sufficient margin of safety.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that Maotai, as a scarce asset, has strong resilience in demand, and the positive feedback of dynamic sales and performance from a short-term perspective is a high probability event. From the medium and long-term perspective, the company has strong determination to tackle tough problems in reform, and the price system is expected to continue to return to marketization. The series of wines have entered a period of rapid development with the support of brand power and production capacity. With the continuous expansion of brand advantages, the valuation expansion speed of Maotai may also be faster than that of other varieties, and the acceleration of performance growth center is expected to bring benefits. The target price for 2023 is 25 Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co.Ltd(002800) yuan, corresponding to 45-50 times of P / E ratio in 2023, and the two-year compound rate of return is 17.6% - 24.5%. Advance can be attacked and retreat can be defended. At present, Maotai is worth increasing the layout.
Haitong international research report predicts that Maotai's earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.24 yuan / share, 57.57 yuan / share and 67.20 yuan / share respectively (previously 41.43 yuan / share, 48.74 yuan / share and 56.28 yuan / share). The company's valuation remained higher than the "reference price" of 246237 yuan in 2022, which was higher than the "reference price" of the company.
Huachuang Securities said that the core of Maotai's strong brand originally casts the best operational stability in the industry, and the new management is bold, enterprising, pursuing faster development, shifting from constant speed cruise to active acceleration, and the marketing reform is being effectively promoted. In the current environment of external uncertainty and reduced market risk appetite, the accelerated growth of the company against the trend is more bright, and the certainty premium is more prominent. Maintain the company's expected earnings per share of RMB 50.2 and 58.9 from 2022 to 2023, increase the expected earnings per share of RMB 68.41 in 2024, and maintain the target price of RMB 2600 and the "strong promotion" rating.
