Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as a whole showed a pattern of "want to rise first, suppress first, bottom and rebound". The three major stock indexes rose and fell at the beginning of the trading. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the trading, the stock index ushered in another wave of diving near noon; However, the market situation changed suddenly in the afternoon, and the sudden start of the securities sector led the index to rise in a straight line. After turning red quickly, it continued to rise, and both the Shanghai index and the gem index recovered important levels.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the two markets fell first and then rose on Tuesday, with more than 3800 stocks rising, which changed the downturn on Monday. In particular, the financial sector actively supported the market and stabilized the morale of the military. Cycle, science and technology, military industry, consumption and other sectors show differentiation. Under the game of stock funds, the market rotation speed is still fast, and there is a great risk for investors to attack blindly . At present, the stock index will still maintain the pattern of shock bottoming. It is suggested to sell high and absorb low around the varieties of positions in hand. It is not suitable to follow the trend blindly.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the A-share market first depressed and then rose on Tuesday, rebounded significantly, and the Shanghai stock index closed again at the integer level of 3200 points. The trading volume of the two cities is 910 billion yuan, the characteristics of the stock game are still the same, the heavyweights are stronger together, the signal of market institutional support is more obvious, the shock of engineering construction, traditional Chinese medicine, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing and other defense industries that strengthened the day before yesterday has fallen, and the structural characteristics of the market are still obvious.
In terms of the future market, the institution further analyzed that currently the stock index is still in the shock bottom seeking stage. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities in the Internet, military industry, engineering construction and pharmaceutical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
However, Guosheng Securities pointed out that interference factors such as peripheral conflicts and the Fed's interest rate hike still exist; The covid-19 epidemic situation in China is still severe, and the downward pressure on the economy is still large. The market is still likely to maintain the trend of shock and bottom grinding for a long time .
In terms of operation, is generally not pessimistic . The rapid rotation of the sector makes the short-term operation more difficult. Control the overall position and choose the opportunity to absorb at a low price. Under the expectation of "steady growth" and counter cyclical regulation, pay close attention to the introduction and implementation of various regulation policies. As the pacesetter of "steady growth", the infrastructure sector continues to pay attention. At the same time, in the context of inflation, the future performance of the chemical, consumer and supermarket retail sectors can be expected and can be concerned about bargain hunting.
Macroscopically, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that under the disturbance of the epidemic, the short-term growth pressure in China has increased, and there is still some room for monetary policy to be relaxed. With the implementation of monetary policy and the promotion of various policies, market attention to the value sector will return to the fundamentals . As the decision-making level pays more attention to the epidemic situation in China, there will be high certainty that the epidemic will be effectively controlled in April. For overseas markets, the impact of repeated overseas epidemics on the economy and capital markets may be worse than the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction, which will also become a marginal variable to promote foreign capital inflows.
On the operational strategy, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that in the two quarter of the year, needs to take account of the long-term factors of the development logic of the sector and the short-term factors of the marginal improvement. From the current valuation level and long-term logic, the quality raceway Baijiu is still the first choice for investment . The 2021Q2 base sector has meat products, beer, condiments and food. 2022Q2 performance forecast will also affect expectations. However, the outlook for the performance is still uncertain. It is still recommended to set up a high-quality track leader from the long-term investment dimension, while focusing on the marginal changes of the catering, beer and regional Baijiu sectors recovered after the improvement of the epidemic situation.
In addition, Bohai Securities mentioned that in the short term, the epidemic has further raised the pressure on China's steady growth. If the macro data in March is lower than expected, there is still a game opportunity for the steady growth sector. In terms of industry allocation, based on the judgment that the market will be in the bottom building process for some time in the future, we believe that after the overall decline of all sectors in the market, the sectors with relative certainty will receive capital intervention . Therefore, we can pay attention to the construction machinery sector under the logic of stable growth, as well as the transportation and tourism sector under the logic of the medium and long-term end of the epidemic, and the market is gradually desensitized.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the main driver of A shares has switched from sentiment to fundamentals, while the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening, and a number of pessimistic expectations in the market bottomed out in advance of the fundamental data . First, it is expected that the gradual turning point of China's local epidemic and the rebalancing of prevention and control policies will underpin the fundamental expectations; Secondly, the economic and financial report data disclosure starting in mid April is expected to further strengthen the urgency of the implementation of the steady growth policy; Finally, we expect that the steady growth policy with real estate and monetary policy as the main focus in the near future will shift from comprehensive development to centralized development, so as to promote the gradual repair of fundamental expectations.
The agency further analyzed that continued to follow the main line of steady growth and firmly laid out the varieties with low valuation and expected low price . Specifically: 1) varieties with relatively low valuation , it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers, property management and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from "computing from the East and the west", and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
2) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low , it is suggested to focus on the configuration opportunities of midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems after commodity prices peaked, such as smart cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. airlines, hotels and department stores whose fundamentals are expected to be still low exceed. In addition, the recent focus can be focused on a quarterly expected to exceed expected varieties, and it is suggested that focus on photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, Chinese medicine and construction sectors.
