Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huajin Securities: the trend of reconstruction of global coal trade pattern is almost irreversible. Coal prices in overseas trade are easy to rise but difficult to fall
After the escalation of geographical friction, the trend of reconstruction of global coal trade pattern is almost irreversible. At this stage, after the change of local trade pattern, the increase of overseas coal price is significantly higher than that of China. On the one hand, it is due to the impact of structural demand on the supply and demand of producing areas, on the other hand, it is due to the increase of transportation costs under the new pattern.
In the process of reshaping the global coal trade pattern or under the new pattern, overseas trade coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. Based on this logic, Yankuang energy, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of overseas production capacity, benefits the most. Under the prospect that overseas coal prices will remain high for a long time, it can form a more powerful support for China’s coal prices, and China’s coal enterprises are expected to maintain a high boom. Relatively optimistic about Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Capital Securities: some coal enterprises disclosed in the performance forecast of the first quarter report that the performance of rising coal prices increased significantly year-on-year
The performance forecast of the first quarterly report of some coal enterprises disclosed that the performance of rising coal prices increased significantly year-on-year Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) released the performance forecast for the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter will be about 900 million yuan, an increase of 395 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 78.22% year-on-year Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter will be 850950 million yuan, an increase of 623723 million yuan, an increase of 274.73% to 318.82% Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) in the first quarter, the coal sales revenue was 2.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.4%, and the gross profit was 1.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.1% Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) announcement estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter was 5.1 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.727 billion yuan to 2.627 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 51.22% to 77.91% year-on-year. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the sustainability of the performance of key coal enterprises has triple support, corresponding to the current valuation or is still underestimated
We believe that at this stage, the spot price of coking coal and the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector have triple support: 1) demand is expected to continue to recover under the background of “steady growth” and “moderately advanced infrastructure investment”; 2) Australian coal imports are short-term or difficult to liberalize, the import volume of Outer Mongolia is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the current situation of overseas imports is weak or difficult to improve; 3) Recently, Shanxi and Shandong provinces have carried out coal mine safety supervision actions, and it may be difficult for China’s coking coal supply to increase in the short term. Under the triple support, the high performance of key listed companies in the sector is expected to continue, corresponding to the current valuation may still be underestimated. We recommend continuing to pay attention to the core targets of coking coal: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) and Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) .
Cinda Securities: the waves in the international coal market rise again and continue to be more bullish on the coal sector
The fundamental reason for the current rise in global energy prices is the lack of production capacity under the energy supply cycle combined with the over issuance of global currency for a long time. It is a round of energy inflation dominated by the supply cycle. The outcome of the conflict in the peripheral situation does not change its fundamental logic. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
We continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
open source Securities: at present, the coal sector still has high allocation value, stable performance and high dividend benefit exposure
There is no expectation of loose supply in 2022, and the coal price may remain relatively high. In terms of policy, it still pays more attention to the long-term association than the spot. The promotion effect of the signing of the long-term association in Inner Mongolia and Shandong is obvious. With the implementation of the requirement of 100% long-term association coverage of power coal enterprises, the spot coal source may be further scarce in the future, and the spot price has a strong upward momentum. At present, coking coal prices are not subject to policy control. Although affected by the epidemic in the short term, coking coal prices still have an upward trend. In the future, tight supply and “steady growth” will stimulate demand, and the upward certainty of coking coal prices is high. This week, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) released the first quarter performance forecast, and Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) released the first quarter operation data. The Q1 performance of coal enterprises increased significantly year-on-year.
We believe that the current coal sector still has high allocation value and are optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Guosheng Securities: China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions
At present, the window period of annual report and first quarterly report has come. Under the high coal price, the performance of relevant companies has increased significantly. Under the background of declining capital expenditure in the industry year by year, the dividend proportion is expected to increase, and the sector is looking forward to double-click.
China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises.
In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China’s import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China’s coal prices. əəəəəəəə. In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : leading companies pay a high proportion of dividends! Boost market sentiment and continue to be optimistic about the future market
For the coal industry exceeding expectations: 1) the difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected.
2) demand growth toughness exceeds expectations: the downstream data of coal from January to February 2022 seems to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year is OK, and the demand growth toughness is still very strong. With the continuous development of the national “steady growth” measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand.
3) large factories raise the price of purchased coal, and the price limit space is opened, which is higher than expected: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 the price of 5500 kcal coal purchased from January 15 to February 11 is not less than 900 yuan, indicating that “the pit mouth is not more than 700 yuan / ton, and the port is not more than 900 yuan / ton”. The influence of the price limit order is weakened, and the upward space of spot price is opened. Under the tight situation of supply and demand, it is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
4) the conflict in the external situation catalyzed the global energy crisis, and the overseas coal price soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal in Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of Chinese market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
In terms of investment suggestions, high performance increases are realized and the value of allocation is highlighted. Under the influence of policy pressure and falling demand in the off-season, the coal price has a seasonal correction, but this does not change the long-term high boom trend of the industry; Coal enterprises have successively released annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them have exceeded expectations; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : optimistic about the upward movement of the performance center of the coal sector + opportunities for valuation improvement
Throughout the year, we believe that the general direction of steady growth will not change. Under the force of follow-up policies, the demand for coking coal and coke may be optimistic. In terms of coking coal, the short-term epidemic affected the shipment, but the price increased steadily as a whole due to the expected stable growth in the later stage. In addition, in the long run, as the carbon peak time of the iron and steel industry is before 2030 (not ahead of schedule), combined with the background of steady growth, the demand for coal coke may change from pessimism to optimism, which is conducive to the improvement of the valuation of the coal coke sector.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the follow-up steady growth policy is gradually strengthened, the demand toughness is enhanced, the logic of high coal price center remains unchanged, and we continue to be optimistic about the upward movement of sector performance center + valuation improvement opportunities. Three main lines are recommended: (1) stable performance and high dividend Baima, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ; (2) Opportunities for coking coal sector driven by the expected improvement of demand, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) ; (3) Continue to be optimistic about the transformation of coal enterprises, Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , power investment and energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , and pay attention to the opportunities of coal machinery and other equipment enterprises brought by the change of fixed asset investment in the industry, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) .
