Today (April 13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three indexes opened low in the morning and maintained a weak shock as a whole. In the afternoon, the Shanghai index rebounded slightly or even turned red, but finally dived back and closed, while the gem index and Shenzhen composite index were more weak. They maintained an underwater shock all day and finally closed at the negative line.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities pointed out that interference factors such as peripheral conflicts and the Fed’s interest rate hike still exist; The covid-19 epidemic situation in China is still severe, the downward pressure on the economy is still large, and the market is still likely to maintain the trend of shock and grinding bottom for a long time.
At the same time, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the main driver of A-Shares has switched from sentiment to fundamentals, while the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening, and a number of pessimistic expectations in the market bottomed out ahead of the fundamental data. First, it is expected that the gradual turning point of China’s local epidemic and the rebalancing of prevention and control policies will underpin the fundamental expectations; Secondly, the economic and financial report data disclosure starting in mid April is expected to further strengthen the urgency of the implementation of the steady growth policy; Finally, we expect that the steady growth policy with real estate and monetary policy as the main focus in the near future will shift from comprehensive development to centralized development, so as to promote the gradual repair of fundamental expectations.
sector:
I. logistics
The Ministry of transport, the State Railway Administration, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the State Post Office and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. recently jointly issued the implementation opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of cold chain logistics transportation. The opinions put forward clear requirements from the aspects of improving the network of production and marketing cold chain transportation facilities, cultivating backbone enterprises of cold chain transportation, and improving the supervision system of cold chain transportation. Support international logistics enterprises to extend overseas ground service networks through joint ventures, self built networks, mergers and acquisitions, improve the whole process organization ability of cross-border cold chain logistics, and cultivate a number of modern cold chain logistics enterprises with strong international competitiveness.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s cold chain logistics industry started late and developed for a short time. At present, the scale of China’s cold chain logistics industry has reached more than 380 billion yuan, thanks to the improvement of the national economic level and the upgrading of household consumption. However, there is still a big gap between China’s cold chain logistics industry and developed countries in infrastructure construction. In 2020, the per capita cold storage capacity is only 0.13 cubic meters. In terms of industry competition, the concentration is still low. The market share of the top 100 enterprises is about 18%, and the first city in the industry accounts for less than 2%. However, in recent years, policy support has been strengthened, and the cold chain logistics development plan has been issued to help the construction of modern cold chain logistics system.
The agency believes that at present, China’s cold chain logistics industry is still in a period of rapid development. Compared with overseas developed countries, China’s cold chain industry has low concentration and low degree of standardization. At present, the competition among the top 100 enterprises is relatively fierce, and each enterprise has entered a period of rising capital investment. Looking forward to the future, the demand for food supply chain and medical logistics is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the improvement of temperature control technology and the improvement of industry standards also drive the development of cold chain logistics industry into a new stage, and the growth potential of the industry is still large. In terms of subject matter, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) which has laid out the cold chain industry earlier and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) which are expanding diversified business are recommended, with emphasis on JD logistics and Zhongtong express of Hong Kong stocks.
II. Coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
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