Xuzhou and Xi'an.
These are the two cities with the highest increase in new house prices among the 100 major cities in China in 2021.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, in 2021, the cumulative new house price increase in Xuzhou reached 9.6%, ranking first among the 100 cities in China, followed by Xi'an, and the house price increased by 9.33%.
In addition, the cumulative increase of new houses in Jinhua, Changzhou, Dongguan, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Foshan and Jining in 2021 was higher, all exceeding 5%.
This increase seems not as good as in the past few years. Even the 10 cities with the highest increase in house prices can only be the same as the interest rate of the first house loan. However, it should be noted that since the end of 2021, house prices in major cities in China have generally fallen, and the cumulative increase in house prices in many cities has narrowed at the end of the year.
Official data show that in November, in 70 large and medium-sized cities, about 85% of new house prices fell month on month, and 90% of second-hand house prices fell. The upward cycle of the property market lasting more than six years has come to an end.
Lengthen the timeline. In the upward cycle of the property market over the past six years, which cities have the highest increase in new house prices?
The answer is Xuzhou and Xi\'an
source: E-House Real Estate Research Institute
According to the official data of the National Bureau of statistics, E-House Real Estate Research Institute calculates the ranking list of cumulative house price increases in various cities since May 2015 (up to November 2021). Among them, Xi'an led the increase, with an increase of 95%, followed by Xuzhou with 81%. After that, Wuhan and Shenzhen.
why Xuzhou?
As a third tier city in Northern Jiangsu, Xuzhou's GDP exceeded 700 billion yuan in 2020, and its economic strength still lags far behind other cities in Jiangsu with trillion GDP such as Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi and Nantong.
In terms of population, the seventh census data show that in 2020, Xuzhou's permanent population was 9.08 million, an increase of more than 500000 in 10 years, an increase of 5.91% and an average annual growth rate of 0.58%. Compared with Xi'an, Shenzhen and other cities with a 10-year population growth rate of more than 50% or even 60%, the population inflow rate of Xuzhou is not fast.
Economic strength and population inflow are often directly linked to industrial development and employment prospects, which are also the basic conditions for whether an urban real estate market has the power to rise. In Xuzhou, where the "score" in these fields is not high, since 2015, the house price has risen from 5000 yuan per square meter to nearly 20000 yuan per square meter in the new urban area. Why?
Based on the analysis of Xuzhou's geographical location and house purchase policy, there may be four main reasons:
First, as a big city in Northern Jiangsu and the central city of Huaihai Economic Zone, Xuzhou has undertaken some house purchase needs from inside and outside the province, such as Suzhou, Huaibei, Suqian, Jiangsu, Shangqiu, Henan, etc.
Second, the regulation policy of Xuzhou property market is loose, with no purchase or loan restrictions. After being interviewed by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, Xuzhou issued a new property market policy last August.
Third, Xuzhou implements two-year sales of second-hand houses, and the price of new houses is lower than that of second-hand houses, which leads to the demand being guided to the new house market. This is also an important reason why the increase of new houses in Xuzhou (81%) far exceeds that of second-hand houses (43%).
Fourth, Xuzhou has previously carried out a round of large-scale shed reform, and the proportion of monetized resettlement is high, which has promoted a round of property market prosperity.
why does Xi'an rank second?
In fact, as of November last year, the cumulative increase of house prices in Xi'an exceeded that in Xuzhou. However, the epidemic broke out in Xi'an in December, and the requirements of prevention, control and isolation have a great impact on the property market transactions.
The end of the year was the time point for a large-scale cooling of the property market. People in the industry believe that this wave of epidemic situation will accelerate the cooling of the property market in Xi'an, and the impact will even last until the middle of this year. This makes the price of new houses in Xuzhou surpass that in Xi'an in 2021.
In the past few years, the price of new houses in Xi\'an can be described as "riding on the dust". This rise is largely related to the continuous tight supply and demand of Xi\'an real estate market. Over the past few years, Xi\'an has achieved remarkable results in the war of "robbing people". In 2020, the local resident population will increase by more than 4.48 million compared with 10 years ago, an increase of nearly 53%.
The rapid growth of population leads to the tense relationship between supply and demand in Xi\'an real estate market, and even the situation of "one house is difficult to find" occurs frequently.
According to the analysis of Kerui Research Center, 2015 is the year of reversal of supply and demand in Xi'an property market. In that year, the supply area of commercial housing in Xi'an was 12.45 million square meters, but the transaction area reached a new high, reaching 15.63 million square meters. The supply-demand ratio dropped sharply from 1.2 in 2014 to 0.8. After 2016, the situation of short supply was more severe. Since then, the supply of new houses in Xi'an's real estate market has remained tight.
According to the analysis of the agency, house prices in some areas of Xi\'an have risen nearly three times in five years. Since 2017, the local property market regulation has increased several times, but it is still difficult to curb the market enthusiasm. In the first nine months of 2021, there were 12 "wave numbers for 10000 people" in Xi\'an new housing market.
the second-hand house price in Shenzhen doubled in six years
The biggest increase in second-hand house prices is still Shenzhen. According to the statistics of E-House Research Institute, the total increase of second-hand house prices in Shenzhen over the past six years (since April 2015) has been as high as 116.7%, ranking first in 70 cities.
The increase of second-hand house prices in Shenzhen is far ahead in the first tier cities. Pan Hongyu, a researcher at E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the total price increases of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou at the same level were 72.0%, 70.8% and 78.2% respectively, none of which exceeded 80%.
At the beginning of 2021, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen once led the country. However, with the introduction of a series of regulatory measures such as the guidance price of second-hand housing and strict investigation of house purchase funds, the transaction scale of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has fallen precipitously for many months, reaching a new low in recent ten years. At the same time, the price has fallen for seven months since May. The agency expects that the price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen will continue to fall in the coming months.
Langfang's new houses fell the most last year
Some cities took the lead in falling house prices. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, last year, the prices of new houses in Langfang, Zhangjiakou, Zhaoqing, Beihai and Harbin fell the most, of which Langfang fell by 3.63% in a year.
In addition, according to the monitoring of the housing big data project team of the Institute of financial strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in November last year, house prices in Nanning, Xishuangbanna, Langfang and other cities led the year-on-year decline, of which Nanning fell 12.86% compared with the same month last year.
However, overall, the number of cities with falling house prices and the decline are lower than those with rising house prices.
can the "leader" still rise?
The place where house prices rise fastest often contains great risks.
In some cities, such as Xuzhou, house prices continue to rise, lacking a steady stream of population and competitive industrial support. Today, shed reform has come to an end. Once the policy has tightened up in real sense, such as restriction on purchase and tightening of mortgage loans, the house price that has risen too fast will have to face the painful squeeze process.
Some cities, such as Xi\'an, have been supported by a large number of "net immigrants" from other cities in recent years, but the rise of house prices for many consecutive years and the negative impact of the epidemic may slow down the rise of house prices, increase the differentiation between regions, and even reverse the pattern of supply and demand again.
(source: country is a through train)
