At the beginning of 2022, the index fell for four consecutive trading days. In the first week of the new year, the fund’s heavy position stocks were repeatedly “hammered”, and many leading stocks fell by more than 8%.
heavy fund stocks continued to callback
On January 7, popular tracks such as nonferrous metals and new energy generally pulled back. As of the closing, among the Shenwan level industries, nonferrous metals industry fell by 2.23%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell by 2.17%, and computer, power equipment and other industries fell by more than 1.5%.
This week, the heavy positions of public funds were “hammered”. According to the data, among the top 50 heavyweight stocks of public funds in the third quarter, 14 fell by more than 10% this week, of which Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) fell by 19.32% this week, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) fell by more than 15%, and “white horse stocks” such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) fell by more than 8%. The fund is also difficult. The estimated net value of many public funds fell by more than 3% today, and the estimated net value increase of more than 70% of stock funds was negative. Netizen exclaimed: “fortunately, there are only four trading days this week, and you only need to lose money for four days!”
Some flexible allocation hybrid funds with concentrated holdings are estimated to have even fallen more than the theme funds of new energy and other industries. The largest flexible allocation hybrid fund is estimated to have fallen by 4.4% today. Another hybrid fund managed by well-known fund managers is estimated to have fallen by 4.02% today. Its top ten heavy positions are concentrated in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries, The concentration is close to 70%.
fund companies: the upward superposition of US bond interest rate trading factors is the main reason for the adjustment
Several fund companies urgently released market interpretation. Institutions generally believe that the upward interest rate of US bonds, the position adjustment of institutions in the new year, and the market’s concern about the high valuation sector are the main reasons for this correction.
Wanjia Fund said that the continuous rise of US bond interest rate is a direct factor leading to the adjustment of the market, and today’s decline is a benign correction. Recently, with the restart of overseas economy, some emerging markets have raised interest rates continuously. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as soon as possible or in April. Under this expectation, the market is worried that the outflow of foreign capital under the impact of US bond interest rate will lead to a repeat of the consumer market in early 2021. Although the most pessimistic period of overseas liquidity has passed, the rhythm of subsequent interest rate hikes does need to be observed.
Botong investment also said that if the U.S. real interest rate rises, it means that the total global liquidity valve begins to tighten, and the global high valuation assets will be under obvious pressure, which is also the reason for the obvious high-low switching of A-Shares in the beginning of the year. In addition, in the new assessment year, the institutional position adjustment and stock exchange, the adjustment range of overvalued and institutional heavy positions is large. This high-low switching probability will continue, and the subsequent confirmation of wide credit and the rise of us real interest rate may further catalyze the market.
Bodao Fund said that when the market does not find new hot spots or investment opportunities lacking relative certainty in the short term, it will make a spontaneous balance, and some hot industries will adjust downward to find space. From the perspective of market structure, only a few industries are in a high-profile stage, such as some industries represented by new energy, but they have fully performed in 2021, and their stock prices are also relatively high in the short term. In addition, institutional investors’ position adjustment at the beginning of the year is also one of the reasons. At present, the proportion of institutional investors in the A-share market is increasing, and some positions may be adjusted at the beginning of the year, which will affect the market performance in the short term.
Liang Hui, founder and general manager of Xiangju capital, said that on the one hand, external risks are concentrated. At present, the U.S. inflation rate has climbed to a higher level, and it is expected to continue to raise interest rates. On the other hand, different from the past, when the current cycle runs to the bottom, the valuation position of emerging industries is still high, which leads to the rapid growth of emerging industries, but the income expectation is not very high; Although the valuation position of traditional industries is very low, the growth expectation is not strong, which also restricts the income level. Therefore, remain cautious in optimism for 2022.
institutions: high and low switching may continue, investment will be more difficult in 2022
In 2021, differentiation and fluctuation become the main line of the market. In 2022, institutions generally believe that short-term fluctuation and differentiation may become the norm.
“The market will be more difficult in 2022 than in 2021.” Many fund managers made such exclamations in the interview. The general manager of a 10 billion private placement said: “when we come down in 2021, we are very distressed. The market changes too fast, it is difficult to form consistent expectations, and we need to adjust the investment from time to time.”
Liu Shiqing, director of Minsheng Canada Bank Investment Department, also said that in 2022, the market will be more complex. As the popular track in 2021 is interpreted to the extreme, it is likely that there is limited space to continue to simply layout the track. Therefore, more detailed investment research is the main feature of 2022.
For the future, the allocation value of the steady growth sector deserves attention. Lei, chief research official of Xingshi investment, said that at present, the prosperity of the undervalued sector has begun to improve marginally, the valuation is in a more reasonable space, and the investment cost performance has improved, which may attract continued attention of funds.
(source: China Securities Journal)
